Let's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we...
As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has...
GOOD MORNING! The 2Yr & 10Yr have broken the triangle pattern we posted on long ago. The TVC:TNX (10Yr) has gone lower compared to the 2Yr in the same time frame. Again, natural normalization is still out the window! What does this point to? Will fed do what they are good at & mess it up again? --- Now look @ the 10Yr on a weekly chart! AH HA! Are Bond...
For our housing loan, many of us, if you are in your 30s today and all the way to 70 years of age, will likely have chosen floating or short-term loan rates rather than longer-term loan rates. However, everything changed in 2022. Now, we are more likely to choose longer-term loan rates over floating rates. Why? Because today, longer-term loan rates are lower than...
The US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because...
World's most important and the largest financial market is the US Treasury. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasuries has exploded. A record USD 23 trillion of treasuries were issued in 2023. This market is experiencing gradual but notable shifts due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) recent tapering of quantitative tightening and the Treasury buyback. Collective impact has...
Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive...
Good Morning Everyone We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher. There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today. IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
Periods of high #interestrates, low #unemployment, high #inflation, and an inverted 10/2 #yieldcurve since 1976. What do you notice? An increased probability of a stock market recession and high unemployment within months of cutting interest rates and a reverted yield curve?
Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January...
Current state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Just as in 2002-2003 when America invaded Iraq looking for WMDs (emphasis on the W). George W Bush (again, W) went to eliminate WMDs in Iraq. When said WMDs were not found, it was time to short the Iraq war. However there is a long and profitable path before us until our lies are exposed and we would be fools to not take advantage of this opportunity. We have the...
The yellow resistance zone is expected to be pivotal for the stock markets. Although some indices appear close to ATHs, the presented spread graph suggests the intrinsic value of the US stock market isn't even half of the previous highs. Same graph with monthly candlesticks: Fundamentally: Although rate cuts are expected, historically they mark the...
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today at a Brookings Institution event. His comments sparked a rally in markets (likely including short covering) that pushed the S&P 500 SP:SPX up about 122 points, or 3.10%, to close at 4080. The Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX rose 4.58% on the day, closing at 12,030. But the bond market is sending less sanguine...
Hi Traders! GBPJPY is in an ascending triangle and is heading for the 183 handle. Price Action 📊 The market is currently in an ascending triangle with higher highs and higher lows. After the low price rejection, the market has shown bullish price action signs. The market is also currently trading with momentum; the 20 EMA has just been broken with momentum,...
Not too long ago, watching interest rates was as boring as looking at wet paint dry. Not anymore. Interest rates and currencies are as interesting as they get. The US dollar has been clocking moves more akin to an EM currency. The greenback has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past three months in line with market expectations of Fed’s interest rate policy...
The U.S. Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) flattening is a textbook sign of recession. However the S&P500 (blue trend-line) keeps recovering and rising from the 2022 Inflation Crisis. At the same time, the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) may have taken a pause but is on a strong decline, while the Interest Rate (orange trend-line) is turning sideways. The question on...