All the fixed tenure yields have broken above their four decades of downtrend. - 2yr, 5yr, 10 yr & 30yr To note, the shorter end, the fixed 2 year tenure yield is climbing faster than the longer end, the U.S. fixed 30 year tenure government bond yield. The year closing, it will be crucial to determine the trend transition; from this long-term downtend to uptrend.
Content: • Difference between interest rate and yield? • Why it is important to note of yield curve inversion? • How to tell when Yields are inverted? • What is the long-term trend for interest rates and yields • How to manage a rising yield? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • ...
An inverted yield curve instead slopes downward and means that short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Such a yield curve corresponds to periods of economic recession, where investors expect yields on longer-maturity bonds to become even lower in the future. Moreover, in an economic downturn, investors seeking safe investments tend to purchase these...
The yield curve seems to be turning around, in the 2006 - 2009 it meant that the Fed funds rate soon topped, that equities, inflation and treasury yields went down and unemployment went up. Will it be the same this time?
Hope this idea finds you happily making a fortune today! The epic rally in the dollar has displayed appreciation relative to all other currencies within the last 12 months. Parity with the Euro: 1 Euro = 1 USD Canadian Dollar CAD -2.5% Australian Dollar AUD -6.1% Swiss Franc CHF -6.6% New Zealand Dollar NZD -9.8% British Pound GBP -11.6% Japanese...
US10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as...
We're quickly approaching all time lows on the 10yr-2yr yield inversion chart. However, in the past the rates inverted at the end of the rate hike cycle. This time we inverted from the start of the hikes and aren't even half way to the Fed's goal of 3.5%. So we are in uncharted territory with the bond market. Note, crashes followed the yield inversion, as rates...
Well, it has happened again! We of course see the 2yr/10yr yield curve inversion: It has been like this for some time. However, all I hear is: “But this time it is different!” The U.S. curve has inverted before EACH recession since 1955, with a recession following consistently between 6-24 months after. Only one time in this time-frame has this...
CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 26-27. Market widely expects a 75-basis-points (bps) Fed Funds rate increase, from current target of 1.50%-1.75% to 2.25%-2.50%. The call for a 100-point hike, while still feasible, is weakened after U.S. gasoline price dropped 70 cents per gallon in the past...
A recession is incoming, the yield curve has turned negative and the euro is collapsing. Three good arguments for buying short-term treasury notes. And you still get 2,8 % return for a very safe investment. I think it is a strong buy.
US 10YR Yield has reached a yearly high at the 3.200% earlier this month. From the new high, the price retraced and retested the support level of 2.700%. In the 4-hour chart, we can spot a potential head and shoulder pattern. Therefore, we will observe if the price will break below the neckline area in the near future. If the neckline is broken, then we expect a...
Overview of the yield curve indications on potential liquidity crisis occurring in the near future and leading to downturn in equities.
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions...
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback. Thanks
One thing is certain, market uncertainty is here to stay. A bet to the contrary, IMHO, is a huge longshot. Ukraine, Russia, China, Mid East, United States and Europe are all in .... re-arrangement ... Yield Curve has again shown signs of 'flattening . inverting'. What happens when the markets are uncertain? Investors are willing to pay more money for...
IEF (7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ) is hitting a monthly uptrend line which is very likely to cause a short term bounce. On almost all time frames, IEF looks oversold. We are long EIF. - HH
Everyone in the market is waiting for the inverting yield curve. Yields forming a top equals a bottom in bond prices, due to its inverted correlation. We entered a long term support channel since 2000 with a little RSI-divergence in the weekly chart. The risk reward in phenomenal with a reward/risk ratio of 35. This is a long term trade, but a highly profitable...
The 2-10 Year yield curve spread has been steadily converging over the last year and has precipitated it's collapse the last 30-60 days with the 7 year inversion to the 10 year just happening last week. Flattening and inverting of the yield curve is a leading indicator of the onset of a recession or at minimum, economic contraction. Peace, CB