10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spread
One chart to rule them all. I have combined the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread (purple line) and the 10Y/3M Yield Spread (blue line) onto one chart. You can get updated readings on it at anytime on my TradingView page (link in bio above)
I have measured the historic timeframe from un-inversion to recession for both datasets. Un-inversion...
Content:
• Difference between interest rate and yield?
• Why it is important to note of yield curve inversion?
• How to tell when Yields are inverted?
• What is the long-term trend for interest rates and yields
• How to manage a rising yield?
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• ...
AMEX:SPY FRED:T10Y2Y Here is my DD on why I think we will officially enter recession early 2023. Current situation is identical to 2000 tech bubble.
Back then 10-2 curve yield inversion dropped to its lowest around Spring-Summer 2000. Then the official recession started Spring 2001. Market didn’t fully bottom until end of 2002/early 2003.
Fast forward to 2022,...
By now if you've been paying attention you've heard about the Yield's inverting and why it could mean imminent recession. I am not here to argue one way or the other, just going to look at the data objectively and hopefully use it to gauge where we can be headed over the next few quarters.
I will let the chart do most of the speaking but I will give you a few...
Historically, yield curve inversion had always predicated a future recession.
Normally, both FRED:T10Y2Y and T10Y3M require inversions and T10Y3M is yet to invert.
Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert.
What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to...
The past two times we saw the 3-month vs 10-year treasury yields invert and the Federal Reserve make drastic cuts to the Federal Funds Rate were during the 2000 dot.com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Each were accompanied by significant stock market declines/crashes.
Today we have the 3-month and 10-year yields inverted(two inversions in less than a year)...
We are currently witnessing levels is the Bond Market that have never been seen before. Again today, the US02Y-US10Y have inverted multiple times. The US01M-US03Y have now also inverted. We currently live in a time where debt is out of control and unfortunately there is no end in sight.
History shows, within 6-18 months after a US02Y-US10Y inversion, the...
