T10Y2Y Yield Inversion Briefly Occurred on Mar 29 and T10Y3M TBC
Historically, yield curve inversion had always predicated a future recession.
Normally, both
T10Y2Y
and
T10Y3M
require inversions and
T10Y3M
is yet to invert.
Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert.
What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to mid-term, the market is set up to stay bullish. Unless there is a significant negative surprise from geopolitical conflicts, unexpectedly high CPI prints the reversal trend we observe is set to maintain in the next coming months.
Particularly,
SPY
and
QQQ
are reaching previous highs and I'm eyeing on these indices to see if they reach and surpass that level.
It would be wise to elevate your news gauge on global events, commodity prices, economic data releases.
Remember, recession arrives when nobody expects it to arrive.
Normally, both
T10Y2Y
and
T10Y3M
require inversions and
T10Y3M
is yet to invert. Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert.
What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to mid-term, the market is set up to stay bullish. Unless there is a significant negative surprise from geopolitical conflicts, unexpectedly high CPI prints the reversal trend we observe is set to maintain in the next coming months.
Particularly,
SPY
and
QQQ
are reaching previous highs and I'm eyeing on these indices to see if they reach and surpass that level. It would be wise to elevate your news gauge on global events, commodity prices, economic data releases.
Remember, recession arrives when nobody expects it to arrive.