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The FED Printers Are On- So in this Graph i just added one indicator : Bollinger Bands %B (Percent %B) a technical indicator derived from standard Bollinger Bands that quantifies a security's current price position relative to the upper and lower bands. - Just take a note that whenever this indicator stayed in an uptrend (above 0.75), the FED always found a reason to print along the way. - Now they've started Quantitative Easing (QE) again but this time they called it QSE "Quantitative Soft Easing". In other words, they still print, but just print more gradually. - It's the same money printer, just with a new label to make you think the math somehow changed. So here's the next season lineup for a real printer push : - AI bubble? Print. - New COVID variant? Print. - Banking stress? Print. - Commercial real estate? Print. - Geopolitical tensions? Print. - Climate emergency? Print. - Consumer confidence down? Print. - Consumer confidence up too much? Believe it or not... print. - Markets down? Print. - Markets up too fast? Also print. Call it QE, QSE, or whatever the acronym of the day is. In the end, liquidity is liquidity. Sooner or later they will brrrrr fast and the next leg will surpass 10T. - Bitcoin is limited to 21 million. - Your pocket money isn't. That's the difference between a fixed supply and an unlimited money printer. Happy Tr4Ding !
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by thecryer
Another US Recession Brewing? Part 2US Recession Study: Policy Rates, Inflation, Treasury Yields, GDP, Commercial Bank Balance Sheets, and Treasury Bond Futures This chart expands on my previous US recession comparison study by adding two important macro-market variables: USGDPYY, shown as the orange line, and ZB1!, shown as the turquoise line. The purpose of this analysis is to compare the current macro alignment with previous historical US recession periods. The chart is not intended as a direct recession call, nor is it meant to predict an exact recession start date. Instead, the goal is to identify whether several major macro indicators are beginning to align in a similar way to previous pre-recessionary environments. The main indicators in this study are: USINTR — green step line US 10Y yield — blue line USIRYY — red line USCBBS — purple line USGDPYY — orange line ZB1! — turquoise line Together, these indicators provide a broad view of monetary policy, inflation pressure, long-term yields, banking-sector balance-sheet expansion, economic growth momentum, and long-duration Treasury bond pricing. The key observation is that several of these indicators are once again aligning in a way that has historically appeared prior to, or around, major US recessionary periods. ________________________________________ Indicator Legend and Macro Meaning USINTR — Green Step Line USINTR represents the US interest rate / Federal Reserve policy rate. On the chart, it is shown as the green step line. Because Federal Reserve policy rates are changed in steps, this indicator naturally appears as a stair-step structure. It reflects the short-term interest-rate environment controlled by monetary policy. Historically, USINTR tends to rise during tightening cycles and then decline once the Federal Reserve begins responding to slowing growth, financial stress, credit-market deterioration, or disinflationary pressure. The important point is that a decline in USINTR is not automatically bullish. In early-cycle environments, falling policy rates can help stimulate a recovery. But in late-cycle environments, declining policy rates may instead signal that the Federal Reserve is reacting to already-developing weakness. In this analysis, the green step line is therefore important because it helps show when the Fed has moved from tightening into easing, or from restriction into attempted support. ________________________________________ US 10Y Yield — Blue Line US 10Y represents the US 10-Year Treasury yield. On the chart, it is shown as the blue line. The 10-year yield reflects the market’s view of long-term inflation, growth, fiscal pressure, term premium, bond supply, and risk compensation. Historically, an important pre-recessionary warning structure appears when the Federal Reserve begins cutting short-term rates while the US 10Y yield remains elevated, rises, or does not fall quickly enough to provide relief. This matters because the US economy is not only affected by the Fed funds rate. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, discount rates, and longer-term credit conditions are strongly influenced by longer-duration yields. So, if USINTR is falling but US10Y remains elevated, monetary policy may be easing at the short end while the long end of the bond market continues to apply pressure. This creates a macro contradiction: the Fed may be trying to ease, but long-term yields may still be tightening financial conditions. This type of divergence has historically appeared in several recessionary or late-cycle environments. ________________________________________ USIRYY — Red Line USIRYY represents the US inflation rate year-over-year. On the chart, it is shown as the red line. Inflation is one of the most important variables in this study because it determines how much flexibility the Federal Reserve has. If inflation is falling quickly, the Fed has more room to cut rates aggressively. But if inflation is rising again, or remains sticky, while growth is already weakening, the Fed enters a much more difficult policy environment. In that case, the Fed may need to cut rates because the economy is slowing, but it may also be constrained from cutting too aggressively because inflation pressure remains present. This is the classic policy trap: growth weakness argues for easier policy, but inflation pressure argues against excessive easing. Historically, when USIRYY rises or remains elevated while USINTR is no longer rising, the macro environment often becomes more fragile. It suggests that inflation is limiting the Fed’s ability to respond cleanly to economic deterioration. In the current setup, the red line is especially important because USIRYY has moved above USINTR again and has continued to increase. That means inflation pressure is no longer simply a background variable; it is again interacting directly with the policy-rate structure. ________________________________________ USCBBS — Purple Line USCBBS represents the US Commercial Bank Balance Sheet. On the chart, it is shown as the purple line. This indicator reflects the size of commercial banking-sector balance sheets. A rising USCBBS is not automatically bearish. In many environments, balance-sheet expansion can support liquidity, lending capacity, asset prices, and broader financial conditions. However, in recession analysis, the context matters. When USCBBS rises while policy rates are falling, inflation is rising, long-term yields remain elevated, and growth momentum is weakening, the interpretation becomes more complex. In that type of environment, banking-sector balance-sheet expansion may not simply reflect healthy economic expansion. It may instead reflect the system’s need for support, liquidity absorption, credit accommodation, or balance-sheet growth during a fragile transition phase. On this chart, USCBBS has remained structurally elevated since the post-2019 and post-2020 period, and the current note highlights that it has been steadily increasing since January 2026. That renewed rise becomes important because it is occurring alongside several other recession-comparison variables moving into alignment. ________________________________________ USGDPYY — Orange Line USGDPYY represents US GDP year-over-year growth. On the chart, it is shown as the orange line. This indicator helps show the broader growth backdrop of the US economy. While inflation, policy rates, and bond yields describe the monetary and financial environment, USGDPYY helps show whether the real economy is accelerating or losing momentum. Historically, recessions tend to occur after growth momentum has already weakened. GDP does not always collapse immediately before a recession, but a persistent decline in year-over-year GDP growth can indicate that the economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable. In the current chart, USGDPYY has been in an overall decline since January 2024. Although there has been some recovery since March 2025, it remains below the highs of December 2023. This is important because it suggests that the economy may not be entering this period from a position of maximum strength. If GDP growth is already lower than previous highs, while inflation rises, policy rates decline, long-term yields remain elevated, and bank balance sheets expand, the macro structure becomes much more fragile. In other words: the growth backdrop is not confirming a clean acceleration phase. Instead, USGDPYY suggests that the economy may be operating with reduced growth momentum while financial and inflation pressures are reappearing. ________________________________________ ZB1! — Turquoise Line ZB1! represents US Treasury Bond Futures. On the chart, it is shown as the turquoise line. ZB1! is important because it provides a market-based view of long-duration Treasury bond pricing. Generally, Treasury bond futures rise when long-term yields fall, and they decline when long-term yields rise. Because of that inverse relationship, ZB1! can help confirm or challenge what is happening in the US 10Y yield. In recession analysis, Treasury bond futures are useful because they often begin to bottom before or during periods when markets start anticipating lower future yields, slower growth, or eventual monetary easing. In the current chart, ZB1! has been bottoming since October 2023. That is important because it may suggest that the long-duration bond market has already been attempting to form a larger base, even while US 10Y yields have remained elevated. If ZB1! continues to strengthen while the US 10Y yield begins to decline, that may indicate that bond markets are increasingly pricing in weaker growth, lower future yields, or recession risk. This is why the note on the chart states that if US10Y starts to decline soon, it may increase the probability of a US recession signal. The important distinction is this: elevated US10Y yields may delay recession confirmation by keeping nominal pressure high, but a decisive decline in US10Y from elevated levels may signal that bond markets are beginning to price economic slowdown more aggressively. In that scenario, a strengthening ZB1! would become a confirming signal rather than a contradictory one. ________________________________________ Historical Recession Comparison The chart highlights several historic recession windows and shows that different combinations of these indicators aligned before previous US recessions. The exact structure is never identical, but the recurring theme is that recessions tend to emerge when monetary policy, inflation, bond yields, growth, and balance-sheet dynamics begin contradicting one another. Prior to the 1990 recession Before the 1990 recession, US10Y and USIRYY increased, while USINTR also moved higher into the late-cycle phase. This was a more traditional inflation-and-tightening recession setup. Policy rates were high, inflation pressure had increased, and long-term yields were elevated. The combination eventually contributed to economic weakness and recessionary pressure. This was a classic case where tight monetary conditions and inflation pressure created late-cycle stress. ________________________________________ Prior to the 2001 recession Before the 2001 recession, US10Y and USIRYY increased while USINTR began moving lower. This is important because the Federal Reserve had already started shifting toward easier policy, yet the recession still occurred. That shows why falling policy rates should not automatically be interpreted as a bullish signal. In this case, falling USINTR was not a sign that everything was healthy; it was a sign that the Fed was reacting to developing weakness. The broader macro structure was already fragile. When policy rates are falling but other variables remain problematic, such as yields, inflation, or weakening growth momentum, the economy may already be moving toward recession despite monetary easing. ________________________________________ Prior to the 2008 recession The 2008 recession displayed a similar warning structure. USINTR moved lower as the Fed began responding to financial and economic stress, but the broader system continued to deteriorate. USIRYY and US10Y remained important because inflation and long-term yields complicated the policy backdrop. Falling short-term rates did not immediately remove the stress from the credit system. This is one of the clearest historical examples of why the Fed cutting rates is not always bullish. Sometimes, rate cuts occur because the system is already breaking beneath the surface. The 2008 setup demonstrates that once credit, growth, and financial-market stress begin feeding into one another, policy easing can lag the actual deterioration. ________________________________________ Prior to the 2020 recession The 2020 recession was unique because it was triggered by an external shock. However, the macro structure was not completely clean before the recession began. USINTR had already moved lower compared to the previous tightening phase, US10Y had declined significantly, and the system had become more vulnerable. USCBBS became especially important from 2019 onward, as commercial bank balance sheets began to rise materially. That means the financial system was already moving into a more liquidity-sensitive and balance-sheet-sensitive regime before the recession formally occurred. Although the 2020 recession had a unique trigger, the chart still shows that the underlying macro environment was not as strong as headline asset prices may have suggested. ________________________________________ Current Alignment The current setup is notable because several of these same recession-comparison variables are once again moving into alignment. At present, the chart shows: USINTR has declined USIRYY has moved above USINTR and increased further US10Y remains elevated USCBBS has been steadily increasing since January 2026 USGDPYY has been in an overall decline since January 2024 ZB1! has been bottoming since October 2023 Taken individually, none of these signals is enough to confirm a recession. However, taken together, the alignment becomes much more important. The current macro structure suggests that the Federal Reserve may no longer be in a pure tightening phase, but inflation pressure has not fully disappeared. At the same time, long-term yields remain elevated, meaning the economy is still facing pressure from the long end of the bond market. Meanwhile, USGDPYY shows that growth momentum has been weaker than the previous cycle highs, while USCBBS shows renewed banking-sector balance-sheet expansion. Finally, ZB1! appears to have been forming a bottom since October 2023, suggesting that the long-duration bond market may already be preparing for a larger shift. This combination resembles previous periods where the economy moved from late-cycle expansion into stress, slowdown, or recession. ________________________________________ The Core Macro Contradiction The most important part of this chart is not one single indicator. The most important part is the contradiction between them. A declining USINTR can look bullish because it suggests easier monetary policy. But if USIRYY is rising at the same time, then the Fed may have less room to ease. An elevated US10Y yield can look like economic resilience. But if GDP growth is weakening, then elevated yields may instead represent pressure rather than strength. A rising USCBBS can look supportive. But if it happens during a period of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and elevated yields, it may suggest that the financial system requires more balance-sheet support. A bottoming ZB1! can look constructive for bonds. But if Treasury bond futures begin rising because growth expectations are deteriorating, then that may become a recession-confirming signal rather than a simple risk-on signal. This is why the current alignment deserves attention. The signal is not simply that rates are falling, or that inflation is rising, or that bonds are bottoming. The signal is that several macro variables are beginning to tell the same story from different angles. That story is one of increasing fragility. ________________________________________ How ZB1! and US10Y May Become Important Going Forward One of the key observations in the current chart is that US10Y remains elevated, while ZB1! has been bottoming since October 2023. This relationship may be extremely important. As long as US10Y remains elevated, the economy continues to face pressure through borrowing costs, valuation compression, mortgage rates, corporate refinancing, and fiscal interest expense. However, if US10Y begins to decline decisively from elevated levels while ZB1! strengthens, the market may be moving from an inflation/yield-pressure phase into a growth-scare or recession-pricing phase. In other words: high yields are pressure, but falling yields from high levels may become confirmation that the market is pricing slowdown. That is why the next move in US10Y and ZB1! may be critical. If the 10Y yield rolls over while ZB1! continues to strengthen, this would likely increase the probability that the current macro structure is moving closer to a recessionary phase. ________________________________________ Relationship to My Custom FCBI Indicators I originally intended to include my custom FCBI indicators directly in this recession analysis. However, TradingView does not allow this particular chart idea to be published with those custom indicators attached, so I removed them from the published version of the chart. Readers can still apply my FCBI indicators separately to perform a deeper version of this analysis. The FCBI framework is designed to measure the relationship between financial conditions and inflation pressure. In simple terms, the indicators help evaluate whether financial conditions are acting as a brake, whether they are loosening relative to inflation, or whether they are moving into a stress configuration. This is especially useful because recessions rarely emerge from one variable alone. They often emerge from the interaction between: policy rates, inflation, long-term yields, liquidity, banking-sector balance sheets, credit conditions, and growth momentum. The FCBI indicators can therefore be used as an additional layer to assess whether the broader financial environment is confirming or diverging from the recession-comparison structure shown on this chart. In this chart, even without the FCBI indicators included, the same macro logic can still be studied through the alignment of USINTR, US10Y, USIRYY, USCBBS, USGDPYY, and ZB1!. ________________________________________ Conclusion This expanded recession study suggests that several key macro indicators are once again aligning in a way that resembles prior historical US recession environments. The current structure includes: declining USINTR rising USIRYY elevated US10Y yields rising USCBBS weakening USGDPYY compared to the previous cycle highs bottoming ZB1! since October 2023 This does not confirm that a US recession is inevitable, nor does it provide a precise timing signal. However, the alignment is important because similar macro combinations have historically appeared before or around previous recessions. The core message of the chart is that falling policy rates are not automatically bullish when inflation pressure is rising, long-term yields remain elevated, GDP growth has lost momentum, bank balance sheets are expanding, and Treasury bond futures appear to be forming a larger bottom. The signal is not certainty. The signal is alignment. And historically, when these types of indicators begin aligning in this way, the macro environment deserves close attention.
FRED:USREC
by AMTrader
Another US Recession Brewing?US Recession Study: Rates, Inflation, Treasury Yields, and Commercial Bank Balance Sheets This chart compares several macroeconomic indicators that have historically aligned in a very specific way prior to, or around, major US recessions. The purpose of this analysis is not to claim that a US recession is guaranteed, nor to predict an exact timing window. Rather, the purpose is to highlight a recurring macro-structural pattern that has appeared before several historic recessionary periods, namely: declining policy rates, elevated or rising US 10Y yields, rising inflation pressure, and an expanding commercial banking balance sheet. When these four variables begin to align, it may indicate that the economy is moving into a late-cycle or stress-transition phase, where monetary policy, inflation, bond yields, and banking-sector liquidity are no longer moving in a clean expansionary sequence. ________________________________________ Indicator Legend The chart includes the following indicators: USINTR — Green Step Line USINTR represents the US interest rate / Federal Reserve policy rate. On the chart, this is shown as the green step line. Because policy rates are adjusted in steps by the Federal Reserve, the indicator naturally appears as a stair-step structure rather than a smooth line. Historically, a falling USINTR has often appeared before or during recessionary periods because the Federal Reserve usually begins cutting rates when it sees economic weakness, financial stress, or disinflationary pressure building in the system. However, an important point is that rate cuts themselves are not automatically bullish. In early-cycle environments, rate cuts can support recovery. But in late-cycle environments, rate cuts may instead confirm that the Fed is responding to underlying economic deterioration. In other words, the meaning of declining USINTR depends heavily on the wider macro context. ________________________________________ US10Y — Blue Line US10Y represents the US 10-Year Treasury yield. On the chart, this is shown as the blue line. The US 10Y yield reflects longer-term expectations around inflation, growth, term premium, fiscal pressure, and bond-market risk. Prior to several recessionary periods, the US 10Y yield either increased, remained elevated, or failed to decline as quickly as the Federal Reserve policy rate. This is important because if the Fed is cutting rates while the 10Y yield remains elevated, financial conditions may not loosen as much as the policy rate alone would suggest. In other words, declining short-term rates do not necessarily mean the broader economy is receiving relief if long-term yields remain high. This creates a potentially stressful macro configuration: the Fed is trying to ease, but the long end of the bond market is not fully cooperating. That type of divergence can signal persistent inflation concerns, fiscal stress, bond-market resistance, or a loss of confidence in the ability of rate cuts alone to stabilize the system. ________________________________________ USIRYY — Red Line USIRYY represents the US inflation rate year-over-year. On the chart, this is shown as the red line. Inflation is critical in this comparison because it determines how much flexibility the Federal Reserve actually has. If inflation is low and falling, the Fed can cut rates aggressively without much conflict. But if inflation is rising or remains sticky while growth begins to weaken, the Fed faces a much more difficult policy environment. Historically, several recessionary environments were preceded by or accompanied by periods where inflation pressures remained problematic even as the economy was weakening. That creates a difficult “policy trap”: cutting rates may be necessary because growth is weakening, but cutting too much may risk reigniting inflation or weakening confidence in the currency and bond market. In this chart, the red USIRYY line is therefore important because rising inflation pressure can reduce the effectiveness of falling policy rates. ________________________________________ USCBBS — Purple Line USCBBS represents the US Commercial Bank Balance Sheet. On the chart, this is shown as the purple line. This indicator helps show the size of commercial banking-sector balance sheets. An increase in USCBBS can reflect expanding banking-sector assets, liquidity support, credit-system changes, or balance-sheet growth within the financial system. The key point is not that a rising commercial bank balance sheet is automatically bearish. In many environments, balance-sheet expansion can be supportive. However, in the context of recession analysis, a rising USCBBS becomes more interesting when it occurs alongside: falling policy rates, elevated long-term yields, and rising inflation pressure. That combination can suggest that liquidity or balance-sheet expansion is occurring not because the economy is entering a clean growth phase, but because the system may be requiring more support, more credit accommodation, or more balance-sheet absorption. This is especially important after 2019 and 2020, where the purple USCBBS line increased significantly and has remained structurally elevated compared to previous cycles. ________________________________________ Historic Recession Pattern Across several historic recession windows, the same general structure can be observed: Prior to the 1990 recession US10Y and USIRYY increased while USINTR also moved higher into the late-cycle period. This reflected a classic tightening/inflation-pressure environment, where elevated rates and inflation eventually contributed to macro stress. Prior to the 2001 recession US10Y and USIRYY increased while USINTR moved lower. This was a different type of setup. The Fed began easing, but the broader macro backdrop still contained inflation/yield pressure. This suggested that cutting short-term rates did not immediately remove stress from the system. Prior to the 2008 recession A similar pattern appeared again. US10Y and USIRYY increased while USINTR moved lower. This was particularly important because the Fed had already begun responding to economic and financial stress, yet the system continued moving toward recession. Again, the decline in policy rates was not a clean bullish signal. Instead, it reflected the Fed reacting to deteriorating conditions. Prior to the 2020 recession US10Y and USIRYY increased while USINTR remained lower compared to the preceding tightening phase.The 2020 recession was unique because of the external shock, but the macro system was already showing signs of vulnerability before the recession formally began. The USCBBS line also became highly relevant from 2019 onward, as the commercial banking balance sheet began rising significantly. ________________________________________ Current Setup Currently, the chart shows another potentially important alignment: USIRYY, US10Y, USINTR, and USCBBS are aligning in a manner that resembles prior pre-recessionary or recession-adjacent macro structures. The current configuration is notable because: USINTR has declined, suggesting the Federal Reserve is no longer in a pure tightening phase. US10Y remains elevated, meaning long-term yields are still applying pressure to the economy, borrowers, valuations, housing, credit, and fiscal sustainability. USIRYY has increased, showing that inflation pressure has not fully disappeared. USCBBS has been rising again since December 2025, suggesting renewed expansion or support within the commercial banking balance-sheet structure. The important point is the interaction between these indicators. If policy rates are falling but long-term yields remain elevated, then monetary easing may not translate into broad relief. If inflation is rising at the same time, then the Fed may have less room to cut aggressively. And if commercial bank balance sheets are expanding during this same window, it may suggest that the financial system is already moving into a more defensive or support-dependent phase. This does not mean a recession must happen immediately. But historically, this type of alignment has not been a clean “risk-on” macro signal. It has often appeared when the economy was transitioning from late-cycle expansion into stress, slowdown, or recession. ________________________________________ Why This Pattern Matters A common mistake in recession analysis is to focus on one indicator in isolation. For example: Falling rates can look bullish. Rising bank balance sheets can look supportive. Elevated yields can look like confidence in growth. Inflation can look like nominal strength. But when all of these appear together, the interpretation changes. The structure becomes more complex. The Fed may be easing, but the bond market may still be tight. Inflation may be rising, limiting policy flexibility. Commercial bank balance sheets may be expanding, but not necessarily because the economy is healthy. This is why the combined alignment matters more than any single line on the chart. The recessionary signal is not one isolated indicator. The signal is the macro contradiction between them. ________________________________________ Relationship to My FCBI Indicators I originally intended to publish this chart with my custom FCBI indicators included. However, because the analysis contained my custom FCBI scripts, TradingView would not allow the chart idea to be published in that form. For that reason, I removed the custom FCBI indicators from this version so that the recession comparison study could be published. Users can still apply my FCBI indicators separately to perform a deeper version of this analysis. The FCBI indicators are designed to measure the relationship between financial conditions and inflation pressure. In simple terms, they help assess whether financial conditions are acting as a brake or whether they are becoming too loose relative to inflation. This matters because recessions often emerge not simply from high rates or low rates, but from the interaction between: inflation pressure, bond yields, policy rates, liquidity conditions, and the broader financial system. The FCBI framework is therefore useful as a separate overlay because it can help identify when financial conditions are tightening, loosening, or diverging from the inflation backdrop. In this chart, even without the FCBI indicators attached, the same macro logic can still be observed through the relationship between USINTR, US10Y, USIRYY, and USCBBS. ________________________________________ Conclusion The current macro setup does not confirm a recession by itself. However, the alignment between: declining USINTR, elevated US10Y yields, rising USIRYY, and rising USCBBS is worth monitoring closely because similar configurations have appeared before or around previous US recessions. The key takeaway is that falling policy rates are not automatically bullish when long-term yields remain elevated, inflation begins rising again, and commercial bank balance sheets expand. Instead, that combination may suggest that the economy is entering a more fragile phase, where the Federal Reserve is attempting to ease while the broader financial system remains under pressure. For now, this chart should be viewed as a macro warning structure rather than a recession call. The signal is not certainty. The signal is alignment. And historically, this type of alignment has often deserved attention.
FRED:USREC
by AMTrader
$USUR - U.S Unemployment Rate (June/2026)ECONOMICS:USUR June/2026 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.3% in May and below expectations, as many people left the workforce. The number of unemployed fell by 213,000 to 7.09 million, while total employment declined by 507,000 to 162.26 million. The labor force contracted by 720,000 to 169.36 million, with the participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021. The employment rate also dipped to an over four-year low of 59.0%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.9% from 8.1%.
ECONOMICS:USUR
by Mr_J__fx
Navigating Markets During Record-Low U.S. Consumer Sentiment US consumer sentiment has registered its lowest point in history. Looking closer, its last three readings were below the 50 level: 49.8 in April, 44.8 in May, and 49.5 in June. Since the 1950s, consumer sentiment has stayed generally above the 80 level around 45% of the time, and above the 100 level another 45% of the time. What about the remaining 10% of the time? Whenever it drops below the 80 level, we historically see various economic crises. Today, it stays well below the 70 level, so what does this mean? In this post, I will share how I am managing these emerging risks and how to determine whether a deeper correction in the US stock market is approaching. Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:UMCSENTShort
by konhow
Will the Fed Maintain the Status Quo?The Federal Reserve (Fed), now chaired by Kevin Warsh, recently announced a monetary policy decision and updated its macroeconomic projections. The Fed reiterated its 2% inflation target without explicitly signaling an upcoming interest rate hike. Kevin Warsh’s Fed sought to reassure markets of its commitment to fighting inflation while refraining from following the rate hike implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. Institutional finance is now deeply divided regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The Fed also confirmed that it continues its technical quantitative easing (QE), namely its short-term operations aimed at maintaining an adequate level of bank reserves. Kevin Warsh highlighted several criteria that will be decisive in the coming weeks in determining whether an increase in the federal funds rate will be necessary. The price of oil and the evolution of US core PCE inflation will be key factors this summer when the Fed prepares for its September monetary policy meeting. So how can investors form a well-reasoned opinion about what the Fed might do after the summer? I suggest closely monitoring the following four indicators: • US crude oil price (WTI) • US inflation rate as measured by core PCE (which should not exceed 3.3% this year) • US 2-year Treasury yield • Market expectations derived from federal funds futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME FedWatch Tool) The histogram below represents the annual US inflation rate according to the Core PCE Price Index. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and Kevin Warsh recently stated the objective of keeping core PCE below 3.3% throughout 2026. The chart below, sourced from TradingView, also includes data from the CME FedWatch Tool, which provides market expectations regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy and federal funds rate decisions. The chart below displays weekly Japanese candlesticks for US crude oil (WTI). Below $80, a technical normalization process has begun, but the bullish gap created on Monday, March 2, between $67 and $69 would need to be filled for a genuine return to the environment that prevailed before February 28, when the strikes against Iran began. The chart below displays daily Japanese candlesticks for the US 2-year Treasury yield. As long as it remains above the Fed’s policy rate, the market considers it appropriate for the Fed to raise rates. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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FRED:FEDFUNDSEducation
by Swissquote
Is This Time Really Different?Is this time really that different? Is the semiconductor supercycle here to stay for years to come? Let's try to answer this question in light of current macro issues that continue to brew. I feel that we are close to reaching an inflection point, something has to give. There are several danger signs all investors must be aware of. 1. The market is currently treating energy stability as a given, but look at the US strategic oil reserves, we have broken the recent low and approaching 1983 levels of oil inventories in the US. 2. We’ve nuked four decades of energy security in a couple of years.The "Energy Tax" Compression: The DJI is at all-time highs while our physical safety net (the SPR) is at a floor we haven't seen since the Reagan era. The markets are priced for perfection. 3. If oil prices spike— and they will now that the Strait is shut and reserves are at historical lows, there’s no cushion left to absorb shocks—that becomes an immediate, unavoidable industrial tax. Corporate margins don't just "shrug off" a 20% spike in transport and heating costs; they contract. 4. Inflation is baked in, not transitory. We’re past the point where inflation is just a supply chain glitch. Because the SPR is empty, the government can't flood the market to cool down prices. Energy costs are now a permanent, structural component of the inflation basket. 5. The DJI is essentially a house built on an energy swamp; as long as that energy line stays volatile, the index’s multiple has nowhere to go but down. The alternative thesis? Oil’s "Synthetic Floor"If you’re wondering why oil is the only asset that makes sense right now, it’s because the government effectively turned itself into a long-term buyer. The SPR is at the 1983 Level. The U.S. government has effectively emptied the till. They are no longer the market maker that can suppress prices, they are now the buyer of last resort who must replenish those stocks. This creates a hard price floor. Any significant dip in CL1! will trigger a buy the dip campaign by the administration. In the 2010s, we had the luxury of low volatility because the purple SPR line was high. That era is dead. Because there’s no buffer, any news out of the Strait of Hormuz or elsewhere sends oil futures into a frenzy. For energy producers, this volatility is the new premium. When the government can’t suppress the price, the market finds its own reality—and that reality is getting tighter by the week. Not financial advice. Manage your risk according to your strategies. I know what I am doing, what are you doing about all these issues?
ECONOMICS:USCOSPREShort
by NoFOMO_
4
Fed’s New Boss Vows to Stir Things Up. What’s Changing Ahead.What do you mean “Good day?” It’s “Good afternoon.” Or not anymore. The Federal Reserve got a new leader. Kevin Warsh wasted little time showing that things may look very different from here on out. His first meeting as Fed Chair delivered a clue right from the opening words. You, and all traders alike, have gotten pretty used to the “Good afternoon” that could slosh billions in seconds. So when Warsh greeted reporters with a "Good day," traders realized it’s the new normal. Behind the shift, though, was a subtle message. Warsh appears determined to reshape how the Fed communicates, how it analyzes the economy, and perhaps even how investors think about monetary policy itself. 📈 Rates Stay Put, But The Message Changes The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12-0, to keep interest rates unchanged ECONOMICS:USINTR at 3.5% to 3.75%. That decision came as little surprise. The bigger story was how things are expected to unfold from here. Instead of publishing lengthy explanations and detailed hints about future moves, the Fed released a remarkably short statement consisting of only four concise paragraphs. Market watchers accustomed to parsing every adjective found themselves working with much less material. Warsh's first meeting felt less like a traditional Fed gathering and more like a declaration that the old playbook was being retired. 🔮 Goodbye Forward Guidance One of the most significant changes involves the end of what’s called "forward guidance." Forward guidance refers to the practice of central banks giving investors clues about where interest rates might head in the future. During the Powell era, markets often spent months trying to anticipate those signals. Warsh appears ready to shut that door. "I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data," he said. In other words, he wants traders focused on economic reality rather than trying to predict the Fed's next sentence. Take that, speculators. But also… let’s get this party started, gamblers and betting bros? 🛠️ Five Task Forces and a Big Cleanup Project Warsh also announced five new task forces designed to review major areas of the central bank's operations. The groups will examine Fed communications, the balance sheet, economic data sources, productivity trends, and the inflation framework itself. That may sound academic, but these reviews could influence how the world's most important central bank operates for years to come. When reporters pressed him for specifics on inflation, future rate decisions, and even the fate of the famous "dot plot" projections, his answer often boiled down to a variation of: we're studying it. As Warsh repeatedly noted, "We have a task force for that." 🔥 Inflation: Public Enemy No. 1 While the Fed Chair remained careful about future rate decisions, he spoke with conviction about inflation. "We've missed for five years, and we're going to fix that," Warsh said, emphasizing that the committee remains fully committed to restoring price stability. That message landed loudly across Wall Street (before dip buyers showed up) . Markets already expected a tougher stance on inflation. Many investors walked away believing the Fed's posture had shifted even further toward keeping policy tight for longer. Interestingly, Warsh offered little indication that he shares President Trump's enthusiasm for lower interest rates. Anyone hoping for immediate cuts likely left the press conference disappointed. 🎭 More Mystery, More Volatility? Perhaps the most important takeaway is that uncertainty is coming. Under previous leadership, markets often received detailed projections, regular guidance, and a fairly clear sense of where policy was headed. Warsh appears comfortable leaving more questions unanswered. Even future pressers may become less frequent. He suggested they are most valuable when the Fed actually has something important to say. That could mean a market driven more by data from the economic calendar and less by Fed interpretation. 🚦 The Beginning of a New Era Warsh is only one meeting into the job, and the real test will come as inflation, growth, employment, and global events continue to evolve. But yesterday, investors learned three important things. The new chair values simplicity. He wants markets reacting to data rather than central bank hints. And he intends to rebuild the Fed's credibility around its inflation-fighting mission. Off to you : Are you ready to embrace a more tight-lipped Fed? And perhaps, sharper volatility during unexpected rate decisions?
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by TradingView
19
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Rate(May/2026)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY May/2026 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK stood at 2.8% in May 2026, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations of 3.0%. The reading remained at its lowest level since March last year. Inflation slowed in housing and household services (2.7% vs. 3.0% in April), the softest level in almost two years, as owner-occupiers’ housing costs continued to ease, while food and non-alcoholic beverages decelerated further (2.2% vs. 3.0%), hitting their lowest level since December 2024. Price growth also moderated in clothing and footwear (0.2% vs. 0.7%) and recreation and culture (1.5% vs. 1.7%). This was offset by upward pressure from transport inflation, which accelerated sharply to 6.8%, the highest since December 2022, up from 4.5% in April, driven by higher motor fuel prices, rising air fares, and an upward effect from vehicle excise duty (VED). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in May, below forecasts of a 0.4% gain and easing from a 0.7% increase in April.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Macro Data Dashboard Review - June 2026With the economy seemingly in a perpetual state of uncertainty this decade, I have decided to make sense of it myself, so I can filter out editorial and political spin. I am sharing my dashboard as an Idea to provide a snapshot at the time of writing for future comparison. Some of these indicators already have received extensive commentary, however I think the context they provide when combined offers a unique perspective, and can give a sharper understanding of major events as they unfold in the future. I will start by breaking down my comments on each indicator and then will give my broad analysis while trying to avoid too much future speculation. 1. US Core PCE ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC - Inflation is still higher than the Fed’s target and above the historical baseline, while still lower than in 2021-2022. While it has been sticky, continued inflation persistence lacks the necessary tailwinds that led to the post-covid surge (Fed providing liquidity to bond market & interest rates at the bottom, which led to extreme YoY GDP growth). This matters little to the general public, who are still upset over cumulative price increases in recent years and above-average YoY inflation growth, especially in volatile categories like Food and Energy (which are not included in PCE). 2. Policy Tightness Gauge $ECONOMICS:USINTR-FRED:UNRATE - Low unemployment and elevated interest rates will persist until pressure in the labor market arises, which there are not current signs of. 3. Household Debt Service Payments FRED:TDSP - Compare today’s level to extremes in the mid/late 00’s and 2020. Households are not yet stretched and will likely have capacity to borrow more. 4. Personal Savings Rate FRED:PSAVERT - Individuals are saving below the 3-year average rate. Continued weakness could signal individuals have less capacity to absorb financial downturn. 5. Retail Sales YoY ECONOMICS:USRSYY - Current level is in line with healthy historical levels. 6. Temporary Worker Staffing FRED:TEMPHELPS - Below the 50-period average on the monthly chart and flattening out in recent months. Any significant changes here could be an early labor market indicator. 7. Average Hours Worked ECONOMICS:USAWH - Slightly below average, flattening, and aligned with average historical levels. I would consider this healthy. 8. Average Hourly Earnings ECONOMICS:USAHEYY - Elevated but flat. Wage growth was also an inflation driver at the start of the decade that is no longer a major factor. 9. Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets FRED:WALCL - New Fed Chair Warsh would like to see the balance sheet shrink, however the level remains high and it will be difficult to do so without causing bond yields to rise. Warsh was always a hawk until he sought the nod from the current administration, so we will see how he responds to bond market pressure if it continues. 10. ECONOMICS:USGDPYY - Healthy GDP growth. 11. Debt to GDP $ECONOMICS:USGD/ECONOMICS:USGDP - High and likely to continue growing without major policy changes that manage to both reduce the size of debt while keeping growth stable - a difficult task in today’s regime. —— To summarize, what my indicators are telling me is that the economy is transitioning into a late-cycle phase but we are not quite there yet. Consumers have been resilient in the face of years of higher rates, and the labor market has cooled to allow GDP growth to remain healthy while blunting the strength of secondary inflation drivers. Things are pretty balanced at the moment, so the question is what will change to create imbalance, which will force the Fed to change its stance? Will the Fed under Warsh’s leadership bend to political pressure to cut rates at the earliest sign of labor market pressure? Will consumers accept higher rates and continue to spend higher proportions of disposable income on debt payments, while saving less and less? Or will the Fed be forced to step in to calm the bond market in order to keep its own debt service payments at manageable levels (which will run counter to its fight against inflation)? The biggest question of all is what the late-cycle stage of this cycle will look like. If I had to make an educated guess based on what I’m seeing today, I think this level of balance could continue for months or even years until certain areas are stretched to their extremes. I could see a scenario where consumers continue to borrow at high rates while keeping low personal savings, which will be stimulative to the economy until people can no longer afford the service payments. With the way things are headed in the US political cycle (right wing populism to left wing populism) this scenario fits the bill for a radical shift if it coincides with labor market instability. I will keep checking this dashboard from time to time, since these indicators update slowly, and will post again whenever imbalances start to form, which based on what I’m seeing, and contrary to popular belief, could take a while.
FRED:TDSP
by ap769
13
Why a Fed Rate Hike Is UnlikelyThe geopolitical situation since the end of February has completely reshaped expectations regarding the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the sharp rise in oil prices, natural gas, urea fertilizer, and industrial metals, along with the rebound in headline inflation, have led markets to shift from expecting cuts in the federal funds rate to anticipating rate hikes. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently well above the Fed's policy rate, meaning the market believes the federal funds rate should be higher than its current level of 3.75%. However, the Fed has changed leadership in the meantime. Kevin Warsh is now the Chairman of the Fed, although Jerome Powell remains a voting member of the FOMC. The chart below presents market expectations regarding the future path of Fed interest rates. These expectations have been dramatically altered since the end of February. Despite these new market expectations, largely driven by the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and therefore potentially reversible, I believe it is unlikely that Kevin Warsh's Fed will raise the federal funds rate this year, except in an extreme scenario. Here are the reasons supporting this view: First, the U.S. policy rate is already in restrictive territory. With the federal funds rate at 3.75%, monetary policy remains above most estimates of the neutral rate, generally considered to be between 2.5% and 3%. In other words, the Fed is already exerting a restraining effect on the economy and does not necessarily need to raise rates further to maintain restrictive financial conditions. Second, underlying U.S. inflation remains relatively contained. While higher oil prices mechanically boost headline inflation, the Fed places greater emphasis on core inflation, which excludes food and energy. As long as core inflation remains under control, a preemptive rate hike appears difficult to justify. The histogram below shows U.S. core inflation according to the CPI measure. Note that all economic data are available directly on TradingView. Furthermore, U.S. bond yields have risen sharply in recent months. Long-term interest rates are already exerting significant pressure on credit markets, real estate, and investment activity. Part of the monetary tightening process is therefore being carried out directly by the market itself. Finally, Kevin Warsh appears to favor reducing the Fed's balance sheet rather than raising interest rates again. Continuing quantitative tightening (QT) allows liquidity to be gradually withdrawn from the financial system and monetary conditions to be tightened without altering the policy rate. This approach seems more consistent in an environment where some liquidity pressures still persist in U.S. money markets. Unless there is a sustained deterioration in core inflation, a wage-price spiral, or a loss of confidence in inflation expectations, the most likely scenario remains that the federal funds rate will stay at its current level for several more months. The table below outlines the reasons why it is unlikely that the Fed, under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, will raise U.S. federal funds rates in the near term. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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FRED:FEDFUNDSEducation
by Swissquote
$CNIRYY - Chinese CPI Holds Steady (May/2026)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY May/2026 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation held steady at 1.2% in May 2026, unchanged from the previous month but slightly below market expectations of 1.3%. Non-food inflation edged higher (1.9% vs 1.8% in April), lifted by an acceleration in transport costs (5.4% vs. 4.6%) amid higher energy prices and supply-chain disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Prices also continued to rise for clothing (1.4% vs. 1.5%), healthcare (2.1% vs. 2.2%), and education (1.3% vs. 1.3%). Meanwhile, housing costs remained subdued (-0.2% vs. -0.2%). On the food side, prices fell for the second straight month (-1.7% vs -1.6%), marking the sharpest drop since October, largely due to persistently weak pork prices and continued declines in fresh fruit costs. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.1% yoy, after April's 1.2% gain. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down 0.1%, reversing a 0.3% increase in April. However, the decline was milder than forecasts of a 0.2% drop.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx