One of the most hated market currently and some called it uninvestable, the China market has plunged more than 60% from its peak. We are now at an inflection point again, reaching the upper side of the decreasing channel.
I believe the property market will take some years to recover , with excess supplies to clear and consumers continuing to adopt a wait and see...
Here we can see AMEX:FXI potentially breaking out of a multi-year downtrend after a 2021 top. The stock formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern while touching support and bottoming at about $20.84. A large cap ETF such as this could be a very low risk trade heading towards the latter half of the year. Personally, I will be waiting to buy after it starts...
We will continue to beat our fists on the table that Asia has bottomed vs US equities.
simple chart here. FXI (China large cap index) vs SP500
RSI popping out of oversold on the 2M with a nice bull div.
This is setting up for a multi year move. Likely at least the remainder of the decade.
Conclusion: FXI has reached a potential inflection point. The outcome of the current technical setup is likely to define the direction over coming months, and will likely result in significant low risk trading opportunities.
FXI, is the China Large Cap ETF that holds the 50 largest large cap Chinese stocks trading on the Hong Kong exchange. FXI is currently...
With China in the early recovery stage of the business cycle it may be time to consider a trade to the long side.
The FXI is currently trading at the POC line on the 1 year fixed vol profile. We see a series of higher lows after bottoming on January 22, which is also a prior low back in October 2022.
The OBV confirms the uptrend and the DI+ recently cossed D-...
... for a 19.90 debit.
Comments: Looking to establish a position in FXI over time on weakness via monied covered calls to emulate selling a 25 delta short put, but with built-in downside defense via the short call and to take advantage of call side IV skew.
The underlying also has a dividend that pays out in June and December, but with somewhat variable...
The direction of the market is as the direction of the economy, is as the direction of employment, is as the direction of the total population.
And the CCP will continue... until morale improves!
Valuations are attractive on an absolute and relative basis.
Cross-asset breadth for EM assets (stocks/bonds/FX) making a sharp move higher from washed-out levels.
EM central banks are collectively pivoting from rate hikes to cuts, which supports EM assets.
China is moving towards a larger stimulus as the property downturn deepens and the economy slows...
FXI appears to have put in a double bottom and may be setting up for a bull run. At the very least, if the current formation is just part of a corrective flat wave, then we can expect the coming C wave to equal the A wave, putting FXI at 33.
Sentiment is horrible for the China markets. I.e., screaming buy
China has been hammered over the years but I believe the bottom is in, and the super power will rebound.
We had a double bottom from the Nov 2nd 2022, so looking for a multi month long here.
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With a crippling property market (www.businesstimes.com.sg), lower than expected domestic spending, stock market make a U turn barely after a small recovery, fund managers flocking to Beijing to meet top officials to get answers, ongoing US-China trade sanctions, never ending finger pointing at China on Russia , Taiwan,...
AMEX:FXI , China Large Cap ETF, shows a Double Bottom pattern. Wait for a breakout of the parallel downtrend or a stop below the double bottom. CHINA IS PLANNING A STOCK MARKET RESCUE PACKAGE BACKED BY $278 BILLION DOLLARS.
China Large Caps are a Key Fib, as the Dollar Weakens and US looks to head into recession risk. China Rotation could be in the books, or else diversification away from US equities only investing as a result of onshoring. Diversification and EM/China could play a role in balancing an overbought and US only portfolio as Jobs Opening Data remains weak, and US...
Unless you are hiding in the cave (which is a good thing to do from time to time), you must have read about the news in China.The much anticipated fanfare about the post Covid did not take place much to the disappointment of both hedge funds and retail investors. In short, the Chinese are simply not spending as much as we thought. Government are doing what they...
