Ideally we would see a tag of the (log) trendline shown here. Not sure yet if we saw the peak of risk-on or this is forming a type of descending wedge and we can expect some sort of breakout next year? With Fed's jawboning tapering (the T word), markets cooled off early IMO, I expect that type of talk to be backpedalled as soon as any collateral/asset/market...
SELL or SHORT JNK ETF Rationales: Most companies will begin to facing serious troubles to payback debt service with lower FCFO and higher interest rates.
Inflation dat is signaling upward trend so far which should in theory be hurting demand for bonds. CPI at 6.2% while junk bonds yield around 4.4%, doesnt sound too good at the moment. How long until something changes for better or worse? PVT (pattern volume trend) implies less enthusiasm than before at these prices. Both JNK and HYG have lower highs no in the...
Market risk on appetite can be shown via JNK/TLT raio (or plotted in reverse as well)
Junk has caught a bid off the daily support. The weekly MACD divergence shows it could be temporary if a taper tantrum was to take hold.
When Junk bonds breakout of the 15 year downward trend, it will be epic! Do you see the 15 year bullish divergence on the RSI! Holly cow! That means traders will feel more comfortable taking on more risks in the markets. Equities, cryptocurrencies etc... FOMO will get to everyone. I think the top will be late Q1 2022.
The JNK/TLT ratio chart visualizes investors' position in greed and safe bonds. An increase means more greed in the market, corresponding with an increase in equities. Based on where we are, I am expecting one last run in the stock market, reaching the top of our resistance trend-line. I have added a fractal to support this thesis.
There is not way this should be happening in the junk world. it's a massive short imho
Junk bonds look to be double topping. Could lead to some weakness in stocks coming into October. Lets see
I was watching a video by "Game of Trades" dated August 31, 2021. He went over a JNK/TLT chart. I HIGHLY recommend it! It was the first time I had ever seen this chart. The shape at the end caught my eye. I thought, hmm. That looks a bit like the BTC (BLX) correction pattern. So I first drew a JNK/TLT chart then put the black tendency line at the JNK/TLT...
Keep an eye on High yielding Junk bonds. A break below the all important horizontal support level @ 108.60 could be a major sign of risk off. Not only is this an important horizontal support zone technically, but it is also where we find the rising 200dma. A break below this level will be quite a negative for risk on assets
Junk bond spreads have been at historic lows, representing no stress evident in the credit markets. But lately, the $JNK : $TLT relationship is turning. Could this be a hint from the credit markets that we are moving towards a risk off (or reduced risk) environment? Watch the chart and accompanying RSI against key levels as a clue.
gold price still working around bottom trendline . compare wdfi spx us mkts seem to be topping after 1.9 trillion stimmy chqs
Idea to track the breakdown in AMEX:JNK . Considering the rise in yields across the board, I am expecting one last dead cat before breakdown.
Junk bonds are very important among risk assets, and they often send signals that anticipate what will happen to stocks. Seing the rejection at the all-important falling resistence, and the break of the rising trendline from last spring, one can't help but feel uneasy about the markets in the near to mid term... especially after a rally that's sucked EVERYBODY in,...
These are my first set of market leading indicators, namely, JNK, IWM, DJT and VALUEG. Slightly confusing and not yet totally aligned; JNK and IWM have weekly candlesticks that are reminiscent of a top bearish reversal pattern, such as the Dark Cloud Cover, observed. DJT MACD has a bearish divergence. Nothing super obvious here... just a couple of early red...
JNK/TLT is my favorite indicator I have found. It tells me when to go long and when to short. And right now short RTY is probably the best short of the century. the green line has been an indicator of shorting rty I am going to start to build a position in RWM and will be planning to hold it for a large correction to becoming in RTY.
No need to say much as previous;y mentioned about the bearish divergence. Looking at the panel again just adds confirmation of how bearish a turn it just had. Some decent downside will follow...