$XLY's quarter ends with an inside shooter that may lead to a 2-1-2 bearish continuation.
Because of this, I'll be looking to short Consumer Discretionary stocks.
There may be small windows of opportunity to continue shorting the sector but the overall direction is bearish as shown by the TA and macro economic analysis. With Fed rate hikes continuing to increase leading to a recession next year, this sector will cycle out for others such as consumer staples and utilities.
AMEX:XLY
XLY Consumer Discretionary could be seeing the effects of the bullwhip effect that Michael Burry has been warning about. Big inventory builds means prices are set to crash hard? Will be interesting to see if he is right.
XLY is testing the recent breakout level (former resistance). A hold here would be viewed in a bullish context as former resistance will have become support. This is a key ETF to watch considering the heavy weights of AMZN and TSLA. - Jamie
Quick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart...
covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich
energy price increases and inflation has knobbled...
Hello friends. The Consumer Discretionary ETF has suffered severe losses this year due to the fact that consumers are being drained of disposable income to be spent on things that are not "essential". If you can choose between watching Netflix and eating food, any sane human would choose to eat food. And the ones that would not, would shortly die off.
However we...
Hey all, I think XLY is setting up quite nicely for a rally towards the end of July. I think it is actually setting up quite similarly to how it did in March, and I went ahead and boxed where exactly I think we are in March. Regardless of if it is copying March or not, I think it has based quite nicely, and is definitely positioned to rally higher, though it is...
Think of your daily Starbucks, burgers and fries from MacDonald, casual Nike shoes - I expect these stocks to continue to do well. Of course, there will always be a group of people who because of inflationary costs begin to cut down on these stuff but the MAJORITY will continue to be consumers !
WHY? Blame it on consumers behaviours - what you do daily...
Forgot to post this with the other shorts last night ,
Position was de-risked at 1R this am and next target will be 2R , then ill run the balance , if the trade works .
new stop 153.5 ( half risk )
next target ( 2R ) 139.79
For me, risk on/risk off comes down to whether this ratio can hold this 0.618 retracement. Most markets I'm watching are essentially at inflection points. Feels like everything is waiting on the Fed tomorrow.
This is one trade that I honestly lost interest in because it kicked my butt, so far ;) , and then I missed the wedge drop on Friday busy at work. But in hindsight, that's just emotions and my regency bias making excuses. Simply put , I should have entered Friday on the wedge drop plain and simple at work or not ....
So, that being said, I decided that if I was...
