The pressure is immense. Consumer getting less confident, supply chain disruptions still on, producers prices pressing the margins. No happy ending here
Well title says it all lol , another close under the 50 and significant moving averages but hidden support . Hourly range around the 50 sma here .... Need to take out the wizard down at 176 area , he seems to be running low on mana though one side will win eventually ... Put my stop a tiny bit higher this time around ... Entry 178.52 Stop 182.76 PT 170.5
Trying this again . Stage 4 decline Recent Death cross series of LL and market is in RTM ( red trading mode ) both spy and qqq below 21 ema's on daily . After being stopped out today in the am , price was not able to close strong, closed near the low of the daily range . Below the 10/21 ema's , 200 ema and 50 sma. Entry 176.3 Stop- 180.81 PT - 165.9 ( de risk )
Market is in red trading mode , SPY and QQQ now both below their 21 emas. XLY , Slightly stronger than XLY but we still were not able to follow through on out HH , so far at least . We also have LL's though too . Stage 4 downtrend looks plausible at this point , might be forming a range ? Entry 176.09 Stop 179.68 PT 168.92, sell half and go BE on stop
XLY has rallied to and thru previous support on decreasing volume. It is currently oversold and retesting the previous swing high. The main holdings in XLY are: - Amazon -Tesla (these two make up over 35%) -Home Depot -Nike -McDonald's -Lowes -Starbucks -Target -Booking -TJX Consumer disposable income is hovering around the Jan 2020 lows (fred.stlouisfed.org...
Failing 1.272 extension. I ultimately expect to see this ratio back at the 0.618 retracement (sub 2.00). As long as this ratio is under pressure, staples > discretionary stocks. If you're wondering how to play this, look up the holding in each etf. Look for shorts in stocks in XLY and longs in stocks in XLP.
A rebound is due - strong retail sales and housing stats will support the sector despite the growing inflation concerns.
... for a 2.24 debit. Comments: Taking profit here ... . Filled for a 4.02 credit (See Post Below). Closing it out today for 2.24 results in a 1.78 ($178) profit.
Cooling off consumer confidence affects the sector despite raise in wages. Inflation puts even more pressure on demand
... for a 4.02 credit. Comments: At the top of my exchange-traded fund list for implied volatility rank at 92 with a 39-day of 39.8%. Selling the 17's on both sides. 4.02 credit on buying power effect of 17.73; 22.7% ROC at max; 11.3% at 50% max.
The Discretionary vs Staples ratio (captured via the $XLY and $XLP etf's) serves as one of many proxies for a potential "Risk Off" signal. While it had been "Risk On" for a number of months, the evidence is mounting that the trend has reversed and market participants are now moving towards more defense and less offense. Be cautious of a sudden and crowded rush...
XLY top weighted stocks : Tesla, HD, Amazon, MCD .. Showing STRENGTH relative to SPY with bullish breakout of pennant and breakout of the recent down trend line.... While Apple and Microsoft are turning down, Tesla has been strong grinding it's way to over $800 and appears to be headed for ATH's next... It will be interesting to see if we get a big breakout...
XLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF saw a buyer of the 12/17 187C for $2.5M in premium last week Top holdings are AMAZON and TESLA. I like both these stocks from a technical perspective and a "cheaper" trade would be to go long XLY :) (Higher premiums on AMZN and TSLA). From a technical perspective XLY has bullish Momo and a strong close above 21EMA. Looking...