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U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Mar 2023)U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Mar 2023)U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Mar 2023)

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Mar 2023)

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U.S. Treasury Bonds Nearing a Bear Market RallyThe history of the chart doesn’t go back far enough for full context, but the assumption is that a major top in treasury bonds occurred in 2020. Since then, the market has been relentlessly carving out a 5 wave impulsive decline. Since this decline is unfolding in 5 waves, this tells us multiple important things. Firstly, what begins with 5 must also end with 5. And since the decline has already greatly exceeded the end of the previous wave 4, we now know for certain that a major top was printed in 2020. The bond market has a long way to go for recovery, that will likely last well over a decade. But relief is soon on its way. The 5th wave of the decline will finish before long and a multi year bear market rally will ensue to capture the hearts of bulls everywhere. I’m well in front of the market with this analysis and this post will soon be forgotten. But looking back in several years, you’ll know to expect the biggest decline in US Treasury bonds in generations
CBOT:ZB1!
by ChartWizardTrading
Could a Surge in Mortgage Rates Imperil the Housing Market?Over the past 18 months, U.S. mortgage rates have soared from 2.9% to 7.6%, their highest since 2001. Will this tremendous increase in mortgage rates cause the U.S. housing market to crash like it did in 2008? On one hand, higher mortgages have led to a steady decrease in the number of new mortgages being issued. In recent weeks, the number of new mortgages has fallen to its lowest level since 1995. On the other hand, there is a major difference between today and the period leading up to the global financial crisis: vacancy rates. Vacancy rates are extremely low. Before the 2008 financial crisis, 10% of rental properties and 3% of owner-occupied properties were vacant. Today, only 6.4% of rental properties are vacant, near their lowest since 1985, while owner-occupied properties have a record low vacancy of 0.7%. Home prices have stopped rising, but so far, they aren’t collapsing. Over the past year, the price of buying a home in the U.S. has fallen by about 1%, while rental costs have risen by around 8% as higher rates force many would-be buyers into the rental market. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group
T-BOND FUTURES, Massive Double-Bottom-Formation, BREAKOUT-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of T-BOND FUTURES. Within recent times momentous changes emerged within the whole global financial markets as determining factors such as increased consumer demand expenditure and a decreased U.S. CPI have confirmed an important strengthening of the DXY, the U.S.-Dollar Currency Index moving along together with a major uptrend within the bonds. As the bonds market is not about to reverse within the recent times combined with the fact that the DXY stays within a continued uptrend these are factors that I considered within my recent analysis of T-BOND FUTURES as they offer an important view about what is likely to happen next. Major Double-Bottom Indications and Upcoming Price-Action-Determinations: When looking at my chart now T-BOND FUTURES are forming a major formation here, which is a substantial double-bottom formation with the first bottom already being completed and the second bottom reaching the major support zones with a high potential to bounce again. Such a double bottom formation indicates a continued demand and bullish expansion volatility once it has been completed within the schedule. Now as T-BOND FUTURES approach the major supports once again this means that the final completion of the whole double bottom is not far away especially once T-BOND FUTURES move forward with the final breakout above the upper boundaries to complete the massive double bottom formation with a breakout above the neckline with an upwind support determined by the 50-EMA and the 35-EMA. Determined Target Zones and Upcoming Perspectives Together With the Market View: The first confirmation is going to emerge once the breakout above the descending resistance line, in combination with the 50-EMA as well as the 35-EMA has shown up. The second confirmation and therefore the finalization of the whole double bottom formation is going to emerge once the final breakout above the upper boundary neckline of the major double bottom formation has shown up, this is going to complete the whole formation and is going to activate the final target zones as marked. Especially, with a further bullish momentum and uptrend preceding within the DXY and the bonds market such a major breakout possibility increases more and more. The first target zone will be within the 151'05 area, and the second target zone will be within the 172'19. A continued momentum within bonds and the DXY that is accelerating and increasing with the higher highs to be formed is going to determine a fast uptrend and reaching of the targets. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of CHFAUD. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
CBOT:ZB1!
by VincePrince
3
HIGHER INTEREST RATES SOON : KEY INTERMARKET ANALYSISIt is not so well known that the Bond Market are the real secret to understanding the markets, they are like the glitch, the secret code to the markets Bond market which acts as a leading indicator to the Interest rates are heavily bearish Price action interprets that the gap above the accumulation phase still needs to be filled in, this would also cause a crack in correlation between CBOT:ZB1! , CBOT:ZN1! and CBOT:ZF1! . Higher Highs in the CBOT:ZB1! , while lower Highs in CBOT:ZN1! and CBOT:ZF1! Expecting the sell-side targets to be reached sooner or later, this would cause a rise in Interest rates and the prices of commodities and Dollar Index
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by ifeanyichukwu_E
1
Bonds showing signs of a serious risk off scenarioThe rapid decent of Bonds from 129 was telling. Yet while most think that we have reached the bottom there are indications that this is not the case. WE are currently here: ZB is making a retracement, I think we can see a price rebalancing up to 120'22 The potential Highs at 121'31 will lure Buyers, yet a rejection of these levels will have serious indication that investors are in for a rough patch, yields will be higher on the bright side. 🤷🏻‍♂️
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by JP_Tru
What's next for the rate debate?The U.S. interest rate debate changed dramatically in August 2023. The economic debate shifted gears with diminishing concerns about a recession, leading U.S. long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply. And the debate over future Federal Reserve policy transitioned from trying to call the peak in short-term rates to discussing the length of time rates might remain elevated. The net result was a less inverted U.S. yield curve, not because short-term interest rates fell, but because long-term yields rose. With the no recession view becoming the more popular base case, there has also been a shift in the longer-term inflation debate. Without a recession, many economists are coming to the view that core inflation, which the Fed targets, will remain well above the Fed’s 2% target throughout 2024 and possibly longer. We studied extended periods where short-term rates held above the prevailing inflation rate. There appears to be a loose relationship between the growth of nominal GDP and long-term Treasury yields. This makes sense if one thinks about nominal GDP growth as part inflation and part real economic activity, and it helps explain why bond yields have moved higher. Put another way, the period of 1% fed funds rates under the Greenspan Fed in the early 2000s and then the near-zero fed funds rates introduced by the Bernanke Fed after the 2008 Great Recession are historical outliers. These super low rates encouraged a search for yield and popularized the view that the Fed has the market’s back, artificially supporting both equities and bond prices (that is, lower bond yields). The Powell-led Fed is guiding us that those days are in the rearview mirror, and market participants are starting to agree. In his closely watched Jackson Hole speech, Powell highlighted the economic uncertainty ahead and how risk management remains key moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
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CBOT:ZB1!
by CME_Group
11
US TREASURY BOND FUTURE ( T-Bond )US treasury bond future *Below we have 4h FVG and T-Bond should not close 4h candle below 120.20 level if it did then we have a chance of DXY analysis being invalidate, means doller will pump *if T-Bond took support from 120.20 level then our upside target will be the Daily FVG is between 121.21 & 122.06 *If T-Bond started to pump the we got the Daily closing above 122.06 level then long term target will be 123.22 & 124.28. *If this analysis played out then Doller (DXY) will dump and Eur & GBP will pump
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by Camouflage89
T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.) Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels. Wait for signs of a reversal, though. p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
CBOT:ZB1!
by Nemo_Confidat
$ZB_F: Huge down trend in T-BondsHere we go again... Weekly down trend just flashed in T-Bond futures / $TYX. The Dollar has been acting bullish for a while, and it is evident in the weekly uptrend reversing the decline in AMEX:UUP from the late 2022 top that kicked of last week. If you follow me, you'd know I've been pounding the table on Dollar longs for a couple days now, and here we are, this makes the bullish case for the Dollar more convincing, and my worries for the fate of the uptrend in stocks keeping me in high alert. As a measure of precaution I've moved back to operating an equal weight long/short portfolio, sourcing ideas fundamentally and technically as per my trading plan I devised in early March this year. I would suggest doing that or if you hold long term positions, like for example being long term long AMEX:SPY , look into call selling for premium harvesting as a means of reducing volatility in your portfolio and generating extra returns on top, as there is a chance of long term sideways and volatile action in stocks going forward. Check out my Twitter profile for more insights regarding this approach, I tweeted about it today. If you short bonds here, stop loss area is a bit above 129'12 to be safe, and try not to risk over 1% of your account in the position, alternatively you can use a put spread where you short OTM puts for the duration of this forecasted trend signal vs a long ATM put position. (Sep puts would do) Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by IvanLabrie