I thought a possible bearish retracement for this quarter could be possible but bonds seems to be bullish. Bearish price action looks like runs on stops. Will continue to watch. As of now, I switch to neutral. My longer term mmbm idea seems to be playing out a lot more aggressively than I expected.
Similar pattern (seee previous post) can be found in five year note, which would suggest that FED tightening is fully priced and that market is starting to anticipate the recession, and bear market in stocks.
After an impulse to the downside, 5year notes went sideways for several moths, corrected 50%, and presumably made an initial small impulsive wave lately to begin the second leg down. Will it be a third or a C wave is yet to be established.
Should stay beneath the magenta MA though.
