ES UpdateLooks to me like it;s headed up for a day at least. PPI numbers were good. Remember how I said yesterday that it'll be a much easier trade if teh market gaps down? The gap up sold off then the market bounced back. FDAX is oversold so went long but cashing out tomorrow.by hungry_hippoUpdated 223
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!Shortby spytradingpro0
ES Sp500 DemandES and the sp500 reach a potential pivot zones towards the weekly demand zone. Previously I had drawn the demand zone last year thinking we would never hit it again but we took a little nibble then bounced. I believe this might happen again here with a small zone, not as deep. A touch of 5130 is likely, potentially as deep as 5090. -I am only buying value stocks in these markets right now -My larger winners Coin and HMDPF I am letting them simply ride the waveShortby Apollo_CB0
Eventually, Most Indexes Go to the Same Moving AveragesWith the DJT,RUT,NDX and DJIA at, or under their daily 50 SMA. I would expect the SPX do go down to at least the daily 50 SMA.Shortby chrisbrecher0
S&P 500 INDEX UP 9% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR!S&P 500, the key stock index comprising shares of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US, showed a growth of 23% in 2023, and has already added 9% since the beginning of this year, as can be clearly seen on the chart. FreshForex analysts have highlighted the following growth factors: Stable economic growth in the US and significant corporate earnings. Shares of the "Fabulous Seven" (companies strongly influencing the index such as #Apple, #Amazon, #Google, #Meta(Facebook), #Microsoft, #Nvidia, and #Tesla) are rising due to the implementation of artificial intelligence. The "Fabulous Seven" represent an interesting idea for long-term investments. The Fed has again confirmed its readiness for three interest rate cuts, supporting growth in the American stock markets. Investors are eagerly awaiting new signals about the dynamics of interest rates in the US. Last month, analysts at HSBC and BofA Global Research forecasted that by the end of 2024, the index would reach 5400, while Oppenheimer estimated it at 5500. Wells Fargo, one of the largest financial companies in the US, forecasted that the #SP500 index will rise to 5535 points by the end of this year. This is the highest forecast among all brokerage firms on Wall Street. Thus, investors around the world seem to be ignoring the possibility that stock valuations have risen too high against the backdrop of the overall market rally, providing even more opportunities for growth. At the same time, professionals will be monitoring whether Wall Street giants can justify the huge rise in stock prices seen over the past three months.by Fresh-Forexcast20040
Fibonacci AnalysisSo after recent volatility in the markets, I decided to plot out a Phi Channel on the Daily HTF and a fib retracement from the low on the daily chart to the most recent high. 5250 is a very sticky psychological level that needs to be broken by the bulls. I give both my bearish and bullish potential projections here. What the range may look like over the next couple of weeks, I do know that it will be volatile and I expect some consolidation and sideways movement. I am long a SPY Calendar spread at the 525 strike with 9 dte on the short and the next expiration date for the long. I expect short sellers to take profits on Thursday giving the market a lift, along with retail likely buying the dip, being the Permabulls that they are, at least as represented by wall street bets. I expect volatility to remain elevated but come down a bit for a day. I think we will consolidate and grind slowly to the upside into the gap on the market profile, I inserted a TPO type chart from ThinkorSwim in an image which shows where the last distributions would indicate a high probably of a slow burn to the upside. Though I predict more downside to come as I believe earnings expectations for some of the largest stocks will be much too high and they will surprise with lower figure than anticipated. by BestCentimeter0
ES Daily UpdateI might play the bounce if we get a big gap down tomorrow with my 3hr chart going oversold, but I think the next big bounce doesn't happen until the daily indicators go oversold. If you like to play it safe, and you don't watch the market on a daily basis, I suggest waiting a couple of weeks, maybe 3. CPE numbers don't come out until April 26th, which happens to be my birthday so i won't be trading that day, lol.by hungry_hippo5
ES UpdateExpecting indicators to go further oversold before a real bounce. You figure all the idiots that bought yesterday have to sell. Also, I'm convinced the drop last week was because the numbers leaked out. How hard is it to bribe govt statisticians? Was tempted to do a gap fill play on PCAR but will wait until tomorrow to go long.by hungry_hippoUpdated 7
SP500. Is the Fun Over?The previous target price set in February is in doubt. The large options spread closed down 50%, with a move to the profitable side along the way. The sentiment is negative. The large option level (see chart) may act as a support level on the downside.Shortby ClashChartsTeamUpdated 0
ES1! morning updateBullish count has wave 4 complete, looking for impulse to start wave 5. Bearish count needs price to break below 5157.25 to complete leading diagonal. Bearish count invalid above 5285.00.by discobiscuit0
Correction Ahead Based on Pivot analisys and Trend Line crossing down we cna expect some correction ahead for S&P dor next Days. Shortby diego.fransozi0
ES UpdateNot actively trading but took a look for my followers. Indicators are not oversold yet, wait for one more drop if you plan to play the bounce. Be careful playing the dip though, AAPL could lose support and my favorite stock, PCAR, took a shit today.by hungry_hippoUpdated 336
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve. CPI Data and Impact: CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major). Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major). Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more. Trading Strategy CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly. Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points. Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs. Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI. Bull Case Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely. Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels. Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 CPI Impact on Markets Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations. Treasury Rates & Fed Policy US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts. Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls. Individual Stocks Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!Shortby spytradingpro0
Trading RangeLikely retest the breakout levels of the S&P and enter into a trading range for the remainder of the year.by AlSmith220
Pre-CPI: Main WatchThe index is trading into a near-term resistance zone ahead of CPI... The reaction versus this zone is the main watch heading into the print. Buyers are looking for a breakout, sellers want to defend this zone and see price trade down into last week's low. Longby OpinicusTrades0
CASH (DOLLAR) IS TRASH... S&P performance vs gold and bitcoin The stock market had a monstrous performance in recent years and continues its secular bull run but If you compare it to gold it performs quite normally...and if you compare it to Bitcoin it has a disastrous performance. Looks like those monstrous performances of the stock market are mostly caused by the dollar devaluation rather than anything else by frapelloso0
New ATH Post CPI comingThats my most likely senario for CPI (mom expected +0.3) could be in line which could be positive catalist for market. 5230 CMP is the entry nowLongby HexacapitalUpdated 0
S&P 500 E-Mini (ES_F) Needs Validation for the Next Leg HigherS&P 500 E-Mini Futures rallies in an impulse structure from 10.27.2023 low. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 4607.75 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4548.75. The Index then extended higher in wave 3 towards 5333.5 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Pullback in wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 5235 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 5308.50. Index then turned lower in wave ((c)) towards 5191.37 which completed wave 4 in higher degree. The Index has turned higher in wave 5, but it still needs validation by breaking above wave 3 at 5333.5 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 5272.50. Pullback in wave (ii) unfolded as an expanded flat where wave a ended at 5236.5 and wave b ended at 5274.25. Wave c lower ended at 5208.25 which completed wave (ii). Near term, as far as pivot at 5191.37 low, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. If it breaks below 5191.37, then the Index would do a double zigzag and should see support at the next extreme area.by Elliottwave-Forecast224
Could this be the top, a topThe landscape is littered with people shorting, and people who have claming "we're going down". To go down we need some news, over the last 10 years often bad news has driven the market up so many times.. Regularly we hit a new all time high every few days... So I am only suggesting something has shifted, we have had two weeks of selling. Other than news what could send us down, well of course "Paper" Wall Street Insiders could send us down, Paper selling all day long, and day after day is a distant memory, but that could do it. Keep your eyes shart, and be careful. It could be a significant top. Shortby dryanhawleyUpdated 0
SP500**SP500:** New all time high at 5334. Last week closed with a reversal candle, this week the price has fallen, indicating the start of a bearish trend. The price is expected to fall to the zone between 5120 and 5080Shortby simaoxceps1
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major). Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major). Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others. Trading Strategy Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking. Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08. Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 Economic Indicators CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights. Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates. Corporate Earnings Big banks to release quarterly reports. Interest Rate Decisions Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices. EU Joint Borrowing Plan Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools. Corporate Events Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane. Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.Shortby spytradingpro0
"Still here"The index shows consecutive inside bars on the daily timeframe chart as price oscillates between the 61 and 38 fib retracement levels Watch for breakoutLongby OpinicusTrades0
Projected upper, lower and close limits for market hoursUpper Price projection: 5,268.02 Lower Price projection: 5,226.36 Close price projection: 5,249.31 However, skews towards larger losses given relative position to 9-day SMA. Shortby DeclanFallon4b1