ES pre Fed meeting minutes updateMFI overbought before Fed meeting minutes get released here in a few minutes.... I'm staying out. Movements are so small not everything is moving with the market. Too much guess work.by hungry_hippoUpdated 117
Failed break of IB looking for short entry on confirmation. Failed break of IB looking for short entry on confirmation. $1.75 points Profit: $87.50 Should of held trade longer. Earlier sideways action caused early exit. Shortby Alpha-Trader76111
ES Low of Week Pullback For Bullish Weekly CandleNow that Monday has printed, the weekly template that it has revealed is a bullish expansion week and Monday is the low of the week. I just now entered in market order at 5324.00 with a 6 point stop down at 5318.00 and a target at 5364.00 for 40 points or 6.6:1 I don't believe price will be returning back below the Low of Week, if it holds. Please see my prior post on the Dow Jones for more details Longby travis18haneyUpdated 221
Bullish outlook on S&P 500, ESM2024, first intraday target 5375We expect further bullish prices in the S&P 500, ESM 2024. After the FOMC Meeting Minutes, yesterday, the daily candle closed bearish, but above 5315, which indicates further bullish prices on the daily. We will be therefore looking for bullish tradesetups today and further until proven otherwise. However, we will have to see if good setups form, since price gaped at todays opening and has already moved a lot overnight, before market opening at 9:30 new york time. We will therfore see if we get some discount to enter first. We are not trying to chase price intraday, entering in a premium. For a first intraday target we are looking for 5375 and potentially higher. This is no financial advice, do not risk real money on the analysis shared by us! Longby MintMarkets_Fx112
further price reductionIt seems that due to the maintenance of conditions by the Federal Reserve, the possibility of further price reduction is possibleShortby forkman110
The end is nigh..."one more high."This is an Ending Diagonal. Notice, it is a contracting ED, and incidentally, the intersection of its top and bottom trend lines provide an ideal end point. A little bird told me 5375 was ripe for selling, and this picture makes me confident he was right. ATH 5362.75 at the time of this post, but calling it, anyway, as late as 5375.75. If not today, maybe in the week. Best, CuzShortby CuzDeluxUpdated 221
ES short levelWE have a lot of confluences that we will go lower! ADR + M15 SIBI (Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency) + Range Deviations!!Shortby Keclikk4
ESM2024 gravitating towards ATH!Look at that beautiful 1/3 ADR at ATH + Previous Week High that is good confluence for us going higher! Also Range +4 STDV there this looks very solid to me! Range deviations + Average Range Levels = 🔥Longby KeclikkUpdated 2
ES UpdateLooks like sideways chop, my board is a mixed bag Staying cash for now.by hungry_hippoUpdated 5
ES UpdateHeh, slept in today Anyways, MFI headed to oversold and all we get is a small dip. Chart seems to be pointing at going long on Monday, so I'll wait until Monday.by hungry_hippoUpdated 116
ES - Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM)On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.Longby Keclikk2
S&P500 - Clues to BUYThe S&P 500 is my favorite market to trade however my strategy struggles when price enters All Time Highs by design. I tend to try and hold positions into ATH's and beyond but this recent uptrend has proven too aggressive for my entries (See attached ideas). Last weeks close is a very subtle clue about institutional intention to buy this market. My intuition says S&P500 is likely to move higher and start the price exploratory process between 5600 - 5350. This is a common process pattern through the summer months observed historically (institutional investors allocate before leaving for summer vacation maybe?) Unfortunately, it also means any trades for me have reduced odds until price clearly defines levels that provide my strategy an edge. As price explores above, I'll be mindful of quick tests of support. I personally would not be comfortable with any swing long entries above 5290, which seems unlikely. From a day trade perspective, 5325 should provided good support and I doubt price trades below it for very long. Time/Price analysis indicates 5600 is a good level to watch for exhaustion of this push. 5185 and 5510 could offer some setups. Daily closes below 5300 invalidates this idea. Any trades related to this idea in the weeks to come will be posted below. Likes and Follows are appreciatedLongby GrayTrader01Updated 1
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major) Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major) Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level. Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades. Bull Case Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce. Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024 📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific. 🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences. 🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions. 📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.Longby spytradingpro1
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Uber important trading day tomorrow. Bears need to bring their A game and trap bulls below 5300. If they manage to do so, we will close the week at the lows and get a huge sell signal going into next week. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5270 - 5368. Below 5270 is 5220 and then 5200. bull case: Globex printed 2 bear bars in 23 15m bars. Market then got a second leg up to a new ath 5368.25. The sell-off caught many bulls off guard and never let them out if they bought the highs. Bulls need to quickly trade back above 5300 and then 5320 or they risk that more bulls will exit their long positions going into the weekend. Invalid below 5260. bear case: 5260 was around my measured move target, which we will very likely hit tomorrow. The real question is then if bulls can make 5250-5260 resistance or will we crash to 5200 and into the weekend? My preferred path is drawn on the chart. Invalid above 5320 short term: Bearish. This weekly close will be important. The closer bears could get it to last weeks close 5216, the better for them, going into next week. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged trade of the day: Long since Globex on very strong buying to 5368 but market then went on and endless pullback and never let bulls out who bought high and that fueled the violent move down today. Shortby priceactiontds1
Options Blueprint Series: Backspreads as a Portfolio Hedge1. Introduction Backspreads are a versatile options strategy as they allow traders to benefit from significant moves in the underlying asset, particularly when there is an expectation of increased volatility. 2. Understanding Backspreads A backspread is an advanced options strategy involving the sale of a small number of options and the purchase of a larger number of out-of-the-money options. This setup creates a position that benefits from large price movements in the underlying asset. 3. Generic Uses of Backspreads Backspreads offer traders a flexible tool to capitalize on significant price movements and shifts in market volatility. Here are some common uses: Market Sentiment Alignment: Bullish Sentiment (Call Backspreads): Traders use call backspreads when they expect a significant upward move. This strategy involves selling a smaller number of lower-strike call options and buying a larger number of higher-strike call options. Bearish Sentiment (Put Backspreads): Conversely, put backspreads are used when traders anticipate a significant downward move. This involves selling a smaller number of higher-strike put options and buying a larger number of lower-strike put options. Volatility Trading: Backspreads are particularly useful in trading volatility. They create positions with positive Vega, meaning they benefit from increases in implied volatility. This makes backspreads an excellent choice during times of market uncertainty or expected volatility spikes. 4. Hedging an Equity Portfolio using with S&P 500 Futures Put Backspreads Put backspreads offer an effective way to hedge a long equity portfolio against sharp downward moves. By setting up a put backspread, traders can create a position that not only provides downside protection but also benefits from increased market volatility. Setting Up a Put Backspread for Hedging: Sell 1 OTM Put: The initial step involves selling one out-of-the-money (OTM) put option. This option will generate a premium, which can be used to offset the cost of the puts that will be purchased. Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Next, purchase two lower OTM put options. These options will provide the necessary downside protection. Depending on the strike selected, the cost of these puts will be fully or partially covered by the premium received from selling the higher-strike put. Constructing a Positive Vega Position: The structure of the put backspread results in a position with positive Vega. This characteristic is particularly valuable as volatility typically rises during periods of sharp declines. Risk Profile: Below is the risk profile of a put backspread used for hedging purposes as described in section #6 below. 5. Market Scenarios Understanding how a put backspread behaves under different market scenarios is crucial for effective trade management and risk mitigation. Here, we explore the potential outcomes: Market Moving Up or Staying the Same: Flat P&L If the market moves up or remains around the current level, the put backspread will likely expire worthless. Market Moving Down Sharply: Increased Profitability If the market experiences a sharp decline, the put backspread would potentially become profitable. Impact of Increased Volatility: Enhanced Gains A rise in implied volatility benefits the put backspread as higher volatility increases the value of the bought puts more than the sold put, adding to the overall profitability of the strategy. Maximum Risk and Trade Management: Maximum Risk: Limited to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received (or plus the net debit paid). Trade Management: It is essential to actively manage the position. 6. Trade Example To illustrate the application of a put backspread as a hedge, let's consider a detailed trade example using S&P 500 Futures Options. Trade Rationale: Current Market Condition: The S&P 500 Futures have just created a new all-time high, indicating that the market is at a crucial juncture. From this point, the market could either continue its upward trajectory or experience a severe change of direction. Implied Volatility (VIX): The VIX, which measures the implied volatility of options, is currently very low at 11.99. This low volatility environment makes it an ideal time to enter a backspread, as any future increase in volatility will significantly benefit the position. Trade Setup: Underlying Asset: S&P 500 Futures Current Price: 5447 Strategy: Put Backspread Expiration Date: December 2024 Specifics: Sell 1 OTM Put: Sell 1 4600 put option Buy 2 Lower OTM Puts: Buy 2 4100 put options Entry Price: Sell 1 4600 Put: Receive $2,160 premium per contract (43.2 points) Buy 2 4100 Puts: Pay $1,068.5 premium each; total $2,137 for two contracts (21.37 points x 2) Net Cost: The net cost of the backspread is the premium paid for the bought puts minus the premium received from the sold put. Net Cost: $2,137 (paid) - $2,160 (received) = $23 net credit As seen below, we are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Maximum Risk: 500 – 0.46 = 499.54 points (distance between strike prices minus the net credit received). 7. Importance of Risk Management Risk management is a fundamental aspect of successful trading and investing. It involves identifying, analyzing, and mitigating potential risks to protect capital and maximize returns. When implementing a put backspread as a portfolio hedge, understanding and applying robust risk management practices is crucial. Using Stop Loss Orders and Hedging Techniques: Stop Loss Orders: Placing stop loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position when the market reaches a certain price level. This ensures that losses do not exceed a predetermined amount, providing a safety net against adverse market movements. Hedging Techniques: Utilizing hedging strategies, such as combining put backspreads with other options or futures contracts, can provide additional layers of protection. This approach can help manage risk more effectively by diversifying exposure and reducing the impact of unfavorable market conditions. Importance of Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Defined Risk Strategies: Employing strategies with clearly defined risk parameters, such as put backspreads, ensures that potential losses are limited and known in advance. This contrasts with strategies that expose traders to unlimited risk, which can lead to catastrophic losses. Position Sizing: Properly sizing positions based on risk tolerance and account size is essential. This involves calculating the maximum potential loss and ensuring it aligns with the trader's risk management plan. Precise Entries and Exits: Entry Points: Entering trades at optimal levels, based on technical analysis, support and resistance and UFO levels, and market conditions, enhances the probability of success. In the case of put backspreads, entering when volatility is low and market conditions are favorable increases the potential for profitability. Exit Points: Setting clear exit points, including profit targets and stop loss levels, helps manage risk and lock in gains. Regularly reviewing and adjusting these levels based on market developments ensures that positions remain aligned with the trader's overall strategy. Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment: Regular Review: Continuously monitoring market conditions, position performance, and risk parameters is essential for effective risk management. This involves staying informed about economic events, market trends, and changes in volatility. Adjustments: Making timely adjustments to positions, such as rolling options, adjusting stop loss levels, or hedging with additional instruments, helps manage risk dynamically and adapt to changing market conditions. By incorporating these risk management practices, traders can effectively use put backspreads to hedge their portfolios and protect against significant market downturns. 8. Conclusion In summary, put backspreads offer a powerful tool for hedging long equity portfolios, especially in low volatility environments and/or when markets are at all-time highs. By understanding the mechanics of put backspreads, their application in various market scenarios, and the importance of active risk management, traders can enhance their ability to protect their investments and capitalize on market opportunities. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv1
ES Daily UpdateAt this point you gotta figure the daily is gonna go overbought before this stupidity ends, lol. My 3hr indicators should go oversold Monday, guess I gotta go long.by hungry_hippo6
ES UpdateCRazy... way overbought and looks like a melt up. Got stopped out of my puts for even money, but I made plenty on the CPI pump so I'm done for the week. Not gonna short anything on Ponzi Friday. I'm not into chasing an overbought market, see ya guys Monday.by hungry_hippoUpdated 336
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.19 - 5.24Last Week : Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value. Wednesday data brought in Volume and market continued higher through next Key Area putting the squeeze on and pushing us in/through VAH, from there one more target was left to test the Edge and see if we push through it and accept or we get a response in opposite direction, discussed last week before the tag that first tests of these bigger HTF areas often provide good response in opposite direction which gave us a tag/ supply build under Edge and a move back to VAH with Friday closing the week with filling the buyers with that Supply around VAH. This Week : Few things we know so far going into this week, of course depending where we will open and what we do in Globex but for now we are inside 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, we are inside T2 Range with buyers in/under VAH and Trapped Supply/Sellers still could be over 30s and closer to the Edge Bottom of 5348. So far it looks like market has chosen 5368 - 5207 to be our HTF Range going forward until we will be ready to move out of it again which tells me we may spend time balancing around it back and forth while we distribute and fill orders as we will have buying and selling in it from Trapped Shorts and Trapped Longs/New Longs who will be looking for continuation out of this Range. For us to see continuation higher out of this HTF Range we would need to either build a base under the Edge bottom or see a strong bid through it trapping more sellers under AND start balancing over 5256 - 52 area without coming back in, until then holding under the Edge will mean weakness BUT it doesn't mean we will just sell back down that easily as well, we have to consider that we are at ATH with no overhang above us and no real Volume built up here just yet that would give us stronger moves lower. With that in mind there is a chance that we might spend some time in and around this current Intraday Range of 5341 - 5290.25 building that Supply. As been mentioned over last few weeks, have to be careful of smaller ranges and quicker/smaller moves, especially now that we might have both sides starting to be trapped and looking to be trading in and out of their size around here. IF Volume does come in and we accept back inside the Value and start holding under VAH we could see a move all the way back towards VAL to fill in the buyers in those areas, our Size Shorts would be trapped in Value and under VAL where we could expect absorption if we get there but careful as it could take time there as well. IF we don't get the Volume to push us through the above Edge or the Volume to give us acceptance and continuation under 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support then we could spend quite some time around this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range with pushes out of it being bought or sold back inside it. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If we are to just balance around this intraday range then we could see pushes out of the Means towards Key Areas and then returns back towards/into the Means, this is what I will be watching for unless it shows acceptance under/over Key Areas. If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support by HollowMnUpdated 1
ES Fibonacci Analysis (May 21)This Fibonacci drawing was drawn from 5315 to 5349, going up. If ES breaks above 5350, then it can continue to the next Fibonacci level of -50% at 5366. Please note the 2HR FVG close at 5339. Once price action reaches this level, price action may bounce and continue up, or fail and continue to fall lower to test the Daily FVG level again at 5315.by RandiMichelle1
SP500**SP500:** New all time high at 5347. This week's forecast is for the price to descend and match the EMA55 level.Shortby simaoxceps1
S&P 500 (ESM2024)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish. Price swept the External LQ, then went for the Internal LQ. Price swept the old high, but didn't displace through it. With the formation of a +FVG, and price pulling back to tag it Friday, we may see price trade through the new high. Ideally, price will form FVGs to give us clear indications as to its intentions. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.Longby RT_Money2
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset bubble in market history. If you don’t agree, it’s fine. I post enough links to support that thesis but you have to make up your own mind. My broader market view has not changed in the last weeks. I was early, yes but markets are forming tops and they always return to more reasonable valuation levels. Since we are at levels where you can’t find any metric that supports higher prices, I will only look for shorts for longer term trades. Does that mean the tops are in and we trade down from here on? Absolutely not. Markets can be irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. I will happily scalp long when markets move higher again. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: PPI surprised upwards, commodities on a tear again (except oil for now) and CPI came in line. Market used everything as an excuse to squeeze shorts more and print new ath’s. Soon bad news will get interpreted as bad news again, since markets will trade lower instead of higher, before and after releases. rate-cuts: No new opinion on this one. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. If you can name 2-3 highly respected finance people, who say inflation is defeated and we will see many rate cuts, please share them with me. I’m always curious of other opinions and try to see what they see. job market: My assumption is that over the next 4-8 weeks we will see a further decline on job metrics. For now no updates. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. comment: Very climactic rally and a pull-back is in order. We will probably retest the ath early next week and if bear’s do not step in, we could also just melt above 5350 for much higher prices. The depth of the pull-back (if it happens) will determine if we get another leg up or a bigger second leg down like the 370 point correction in April. Monday will be very interesting since opex is over and this rally looks, swims and quacks like short squeeze. current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 or breaks above 5350 key levels: 5000 - 5350 bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. Invalid below 5300. bear case: Bears see this as a climactic rally to retest the ath and want to sell-off now as we did the last time in late March. Market is trading very far above the daily 20ema and a 300 point gain without much of a pull-back, it’s overdue. Does that mean this was the top? No. It can go longer but talking probability-wise, a smaller second leg sideways to down is due. We had 3 clear pushes up with only very small side-ways corrections and this is climactic and unsustainable market behavior. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 5246 and now we are at 5349. Pull-back was very weak and even then the day printed green. Bulls wanted the new ath and they got it after CPI numbers were in line. My W4 was a bit too deep but W5 was spot on, so I hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500. current swing trade: Waiting for bears to show up since I’m only looking for longer term shorts up here. Chart update: Bullish targets are met and some correction is overdue. Shortby priceactiontds2
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range after a strong rally. The market could continue to build out a bull flag pattern or break out directly to new highs. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5329 (major), 5318 (major), 5302-04 (major) Major Supports: 5272-74 (major), 5236 (major), 5208 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5347 (major), 5365-67 (major), 5386-89 (major) Major Resistances: 5404-07 (major), 5450 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The market is consolidating within the 5302-5347 range, with an even tighter range of 5329-5347. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5317 if the 5309-11 area is tested. If the market dips lower, consider longs at 5302-04, 5272, or 5287 (major). Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, 5342-47 may offer a potential dip, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to build out the 5309-5342 bull flag pattern, potentially breaking out for a new push into all-time highs (ATHs). Target 5359, then 5375-77 in this scenario. Consolidation and Breakout: If the market consolidates within the 5329-5347 range and breaks out above 5347, it could target the resistances mentioned above. Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially targeting 5272 and lower. Entry Points: Look for a bounce attempt and rejection at 5302, then consider entering a short position around 5300. Remember to manage risk with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📈 Renewed Market Rally: The stock market has experienced a renewed record-setting rally, surprising many of Wall Street's top strategists and prompting revisions of year-end S&P 500 targets. This surge reflects robust confidence in market fundamentals and investor optimism. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Prices: The death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, potentially affecting global oil prices. Concurrently, gold futures have reached new record settlements amid growing geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting are highly anticipated as they may provide further clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts and reveal the level of consensus among policymakers. This release is crucial for understanding the Fed's future monetary policy direction. 💼 Corporate Earnings Reports: Nvidia's earnings report is particularly significant as it is a key driver of the S&P 500's recent growth. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report to gauge the health of the tech sector and its impact on broader market trends. 📊 Global Economic Indicators: Recent data releases, such as the CPI report and retail sales data, have fueled speculations of a cooling economy. These indicators are essential for assessing the overall health of the economy and potential shifts in monetary policy.Longby spytradingpro1