$ES_F 02-21-2024 Daily Pivot Entry's S2 4958.50 for a long R1 5019.75 for a short If there is any momentum either way , the edges can be faded. Longby mapleleafnj1
Bear flag into another bear flag consolidation zone I am wondering whether this pattern back in Dec 2023 on the hour chart is a good pattern to trade. We see price run down forming bearish momentum. Price then chops back up in the shape of a bear flag or bearish wedge. Price rejects off the previous bear flag pattern. Either go short at the base of the bear flag pattern ie have a preset sell order in place or wait for the bearish candle, then short itby NCHammer0
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start. sp500 In my weekly outlook i said down then sideways, that was good for +45 bull case: Bulls bought the pullback to the bull trend line which started early 2023-12. Market has formed a triangle and bulls want to test the 1h 20ema, the bear trend line above and they need to close the bear gap to 5000, otherwise it’s a sell signal. They do stopped the bears today at 4970 and odds favor sideways here first. bear case: Bears see the lower high double top with the ath. They got their pullback to 5000 and now they want to keep the gap above open to trap late bulls. If they succeed in keeping it open and making 4995 resistance, we could easily drop to 4900 this week and maybe even 4880ish. But let’s get the first bear target and then evaluate again. short term: sideways - bulls could close the gap and trade more up to form a lower high below 5030 but i give the odds to sideways medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: selling 4990 and buying 4975 - mostly trading range price action (or a broad bear channel, it does not matter because you trade them the same) where you either stay away completely or buy low and sell high and scalpShortby priceactiontds0
ES UpdateInteresting.... MFI went oversold on ES, NQ, and RTY. Fed meeting minutes Wed at 2pm. Might just wait until then to make any real trades, meeting minutes can whipsaw the market just like the press conference does.by hungry_hippoUpdated 8
SPX Hard not to be BullishWhile many are in the "glass half empty" mode, interpreting the market to be completing a B Wave with a C wave, equalling or surpassing the previous lows of last October, Could be that we are entering an Explosive Wave 3 of 3 of 3. WIth this in mind, I caution myself to get sucked in to put buying even as the market looks toppy.Longby AssetDesign1
S&P 500 Mini Futures 30 PIP Trade Hello fellow traders! I've had my eye on this position since this morning and since Sunday. The S&P 600 Mini Futures have tested their lows six times since February 14th, indicating oversold conditions on the 3-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour charts. Entry $5012.50 Stop Loss: $5009.75 Take Profit $5020 Snipping 30pip pullback Longby DTrades01010
ES1! evening updateThe price action in the orange ellipse looks corrective to me... it can be interpreted in several different ways, all depending on your bullish/bearish bias. However, the price action from the October 2023 low looks very much like two impulse waves (blue and green ellipses) separated by an expanded flat. Bulls need 4830.75 and 4702.00 to hold as support and for 5066.50 to break as resistance. If 5066.50 can hold as resistance with bull support levels breaking, this would be highly suggestive of a top, IMO. If 5066.50 breaks as resistance, then a corrective or impulsive wave off October 2022 low has several more months to play out, again IMO. by discobiscuit1
2/19-2/20 Monday and Tuesday Trading PlanApologies for the formatting today. TradingView has a formatting bug in their editor and this is the only way to publish until it's been resolved. Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish Vanguard's Economic Outlook: U.S. Consumer Health: Entering 2024, U.S. consumers remain financially healthy, potentially bolstering or stabilizing economic growth despite recession risks. S&P 500 Earnings Growth: Earnings Expectations: Wall Street's anticipation of double-digit earnings growth in 2024 and 2025, with the risk of market corrections if these expectations are not met. Stock Market Performance: Bullish Momentum: The S&P 500's continued growth into January 2024, reaching new highs amid a robust U.S. economy and mixed earnings reports. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook: Speculation on Rate Cuts: Market optimism for potential Fed rate cuts in 2024, tempered by analysts' caution over premature expectations. Tech Stock Valuations: Sustainability Concerns: Warnings about the sustainability of gains in major technology stocks, given their valuations. S&P 500 Milestone: Historic High: The index breaking above 5,000, signaling investor optimism and potential for further gains. Asian Currencies and Fed Rate Cuts: Currency Impacts: Potential benefits for certain Asian currencies from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. France's Economic Growth Outlook: Growth Revision: France's lowered economic growth outlook for 2024, with implications for President Macron's economic strategy. European Banks' Profits: Record Profits: European banks' profits exceeding 100 billion, largely benefiting from rising interest rates. Regulatory Actions: Property and Tech Regulations: Expected UK curbs on short-term property rentals and EU fines on Apple, reflecting regulatory trends. Trading Plan for Monday/Tuesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 5016-18 and 4998, serving as pivotal points for market stability and potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 5046-48 and 5055-58, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of sentiment shifts. Trading Strategy: Holiday Session Caution: Emphasis on cautious trading during low volume holiday sessions, with a focus on capital preservation and disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market dynamics, especially in light of holiday sessions and OPEX Fridays. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.Shortby spytradingproUpdated 4
02/19 Pre market planWe see the market consolidating in the demand zone 5024 5013, we saw the friday agressive selling into this demand and hold it pretty well, if we keep above of this demand i want to focus on longs. Also we have the supply level at 5055 5052 that act really well the friday. lets see if we tested and how the market react to it.by SrSovi1
ES - Neutral - 3rd Week of FebruaryES could go either way here. Interested in lower prices below weekly swing low of Higher prices above weekly ob. by imjesstwoone0
SP500**SP500:** We saw the price test the zone of the highest high. The formation of an engulfing indicates the likelihood of the start of a bearish trend. The forecast is for a fall this weekShortby simaoxceps0
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 02.11 - 02.16Lets check out market structure from last week and see what we can lean on this week. Last Week : Last week started off at VAL of current HTF Range, market opened Sunday over Key area but wasn't able to hold over which provided sells back towards the Edge but was only able to hit a couple lower targets before it found more buying at and over the Edge which told us we weren't ready to continue lower from there. Once we got over and held 72-67 area as Support which brought in more buying, we took out 88-84 Resistance which trapped shorts below and gave a nice push towards higher targets. We hit resistance at Key Area of 5019-13.75 but market again wasn't able to get back under the mean and instead we created a cost basis, got over Key Resistance and pushed to test VAH. First VAH Test in Pre-market gave a nice sell back into previous Key Resistance but failed to break making it our Support, once selling over 28.50-34 area ran out we were able to continue to next level up at 48.75-45.75 which provided Resistance for the day. This Week : So far Friday market was able to hold VAH and gave a push over it end of day. Going into this week we have a Cost Basis at the Mean area of the HTF Range and we have our Key HTF Edge right above us which is a great spot for profit taking from size longs. This to me is kind of hinting on possible balance action inside our new range which is 5013.75 - 5066. Cost Basis at the Mean could provide the needed Support and the selling from/under the Edge could provide the needed resistance to keep us inside this range until we either have enough Supply/Volume to break back under and continue towards VAL or give another consolidation and if more buying comes in try to push through the Edge. I feel like this Edge is the one that will kind of stop this train from going further, of course we never know and can continue if buying comes in but if not this is a perfect spot for market to find good HTF Resistance and start a distribution process under it filling in the shorts who got trapped on the way up, holding the market here will also bring in new buyers as well who will be looking for continuation higher towards 5100 but if they aren't strong enough to actually push us through this area then that would be our Supply when we are ready to accept back in Value and head for VAL. This might take time to play out and wont be surprised if we spend the whole week in this current Range without acceptance over/under for now. We could see tests out of Key areas but need to be careful for continuations from them. I will be looking to trade back and forth level to level inside this 5066 - 5013.75 Range until I see acceptance over/under. Levels to Watch: Current Resistance 5048.75 - 45.75 Key Resistance 5065.75 - 60.75 IF Accept Over Next Level up is 5077.75-81 Area Current Support 5034 - 31 - 28.50 Area Key Support 5019 - 13.75 Would need to hold under to see anything lower IF it does levels under are 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988-84.25 by HollowMnUpdated 223
ES UpdateLooks to me like the market is setting up for a pump and dump tomorrow on Ponzi Friday. ES RSI heading to overbought with MFI divergence. I might do a one day beer money bet on XLF calls EOD. Seeing a lot of divergence in every time frame, so not going big,by hungry_hippoUpdated 9
02/16 pre market planThe market experience some volatility before the open due to the CPI news, rejected really well the supply zone at 5059 5066, and also the demand zone at 5019 - 5030. i would like to see a retest on that demand to enter in long or a test of the supply to enter short, remember we have to see how the market react to those levels. it could break the demand zone and look lower prices.by SrSovi0
2/15 Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish OPEX Day = High Volatility Things could go either way today, so exercise extreme caution. I do not trade on OPEX days. The last hour of the trading session will be a determining factor on where we're headed next week. Stock Market Outlook: Earnings Growth Expectations: Wall Street's anticipation of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024 and 2025, coupled with the risk of a significant correction if these expectations are not met, underscores the market's current optimism and potential volatility. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Speculation: The bullish momentum of the S&P 500 is partly driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot, yet concerns arise that the market may be overly optimistic about the timing and justification of rate cuts. U.S. Consumer Spending: Sustained Strong Spending: Despite the surge in household debt, strong consumer spending supported by job gains and lower inflation fuels speculation about a potential "soft landing" in 2024. Federal Reserve and Inflation: Progress on Inflation: The Federal Reserve's actions have led to a reduction in inflation levels, though still above the target, raising speculation about possible rate cuts in response to economic conditions. Recession Risks: High Recession Probability: Rosenberg's prediction of an 85% chance of a recession in 2024 based on comprehensive economic indicators highlights the underlying risks in the current economic environment. Global Economic Outlook: Challenges to Global Growth: Tight monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose risks to global economic growth, with specific challenges facing economies like Japan and expectations of subdued global growth in 2024. Asian Markets: Wall Street's Rally Influence: Asian shares, particularly Japan's Nikkei, reflecting Wall Street's rally despite Japan's economic contraction, emphasize the interconnectedness of global markets. Corporate News: Semiconductor Sector Optimism: Applied Materials Inc.'s bullish revenue forecast highlights the sector's growth potential amid increased investments in semiconductor production. Energy and Commodities: Oil Price Fluctuations: The slight declines in U.S. benchmark crude and Brent crude prices reflect the ongoing volatility in the energy market. Currency Markets: Dollar's Movement: The U.S. dollar's performance against major currencies underscores the currency market's sensitivity to economic data and policy decisions. 📈 Trading Plan for Friday: Support Levels to Watch: Key Supports: 5010 and 4998-5000, serving as crucial points for gauging market stability or signaling potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Critical Resistances: 5046-48 and 5063-65, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of potential shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: OPEX Friday Caution: The emphasis on capital preservation and cautious trading in light of OPEX Friday and the recent market rally. Bull Case: Monitoring the market's ability to maintain above key support levels for a continued rally, with an eye on reclaiming resistance levels for sustained momentum. Bear Case: Preparation for a downward trend should key support levels, particularly 4998-5000, fail to hold, signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market volatility and OPEX day dynamics. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.Shortby spytradingpro1
ID: 2024 - 00902.07.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 163DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. Short Strikes DELTA -13 Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 008 01.31.2024 Next trade executed - wash, rinse, repeat. This ESU2024 expiration cycle (JULY 2024). 170DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced condor structure. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) delta 25 and a PCS (put credit spread) delta 13. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00701.16.2024 3rd official trade of 2024 executed. This trade is the next element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry today at 157 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00601.10.2024 2ndt official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 1st element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESU2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 161 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00501.04.2024 1st official trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 5rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 134 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. This can be thought of as a PDS (put debit spread) combined with a PCS (put credit spread) and the short strikes will share the same strike. This gives again, defined risk, defined reward, and will get managed as one trade in a collective campaign of trades. There are currently 4 elements deployed along with a black swan hedge providing overwatch. One more element will execute next week, and then this campaign will be done. Campaign number 2 will repeat this same process. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 1
ID: 2024 - 00312.18.2023 3rd trade of 2024 executed today. This trade is the 3rd element deployed in a campaign of 5 max positions for ESM2024 expiration cycle (JUNE 2024). Once 5 elements are in flight, the trade gets managed as a campaign structure. Trade entry at 151 DTE. Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Element #2 (ID: 2024 - 002) will be sacrificed as the black swan hedge with GTC order placed to cover one of the short strikes (if necessary). Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 2024 - 00212.12.2023 2ndt trade of 2024 executed today. This trade will have ZERO probability of hitting target profit before 1.1.2024, therefore no hesitation opening today. Trade entry at 157 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down. This trade will deploy once/week until account value has doubled in size. :-) Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0