RTH ES PRICE REVIEW 11-6 ELECTION DAYGoing through price action ES RTH looking for clues the market was leaving today. great day to review and reflect.
ESU2013 trade ideas
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 6thAs outlined for the past two days, ES put in a textbook failed breakdown on Monday of last Thursdays lows, triggering a long at 5734 that delivered over 216 points during the election. Like i mentioned often, 95% of rallies start from failed breakdowns. This was no different.
As of now: 5919-22 is key support. Flagging above this keeps 5955 and 5973 in play. Dips are only in focus below 5919.
ES price action review for 11-6 + overnight session US Electiongoing over the RTH ES price action and the overnight price action for the US election. looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and setting a plan for today day after Election.
$SPY $ES Daily&Weekly AnalysisThe videos shows my interpretation of the (S) and (R) i see on daily&week.
Daily: we see (S) formed on 9/23 and it's still being used
causes us to bounce that (S) to test prev (R) & 10ma(R) today on Daily!
Week: we see it's still holding above 10MA as (S)
we also have new (R) form 10/14~10/25.
Bull's plan: Waiting for Daily to reclaim10ma from (R) to (S), and aim prev Lower High (R) ~5821 then ATH(R) ~5915
Bear's plan: Waiting for Daily to reject current (R) to test prev (S) ~5745
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870.
current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there)
key levels: 5730 - 5840
bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct.
Invalidation is above 5830.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on:
1. Market Structure Analysis
- Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts:
* ES (E-mini S&P 500)
* NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
* CL (Crude Oil)
* GC (Gold)
2. Liquidity Pool Analysis
- Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity
3. Scenario Analysis
- Pre-Post-election scenarios:
* Potential market reactions to polling data
* Volatility expectations
4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis
- Intraday (short-term) movements
- Daily trends
- Weekly patterns
- Monthly market outlook
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
ES Levels and Targets Nov 4thOn Friday, 5802 was the primary target for ES as a major backtest, and we saw a sell-off from there. The 5740 support, talked about Sunday in group, held exactly on target with a bounce last night.
As of now: 5760 is today’s support level. Already defended once. Holding above it keeps 5779, 5792, and 5797-5802 in play. If 5760 breaks, a retest of 5740 is sellers target, which is now a weaker support.
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
Bullish channel looks like we just went back into a bullish channel.
From what i though was a break of channel last night.. will be going bullish again. unless otherwise
If the election is bearish how far could we fall?i think were experimenting with the idea that presidential elections cause volatility no matter what, and that volatility is a cyclical buy noatter who wins. that being said if we fail to regain TRAMA and supertrend remains sell, the sequence could complete a bear cycle and we wouldnt find support until daily gap close. i would still treat this as a buy for broader markets, and thats why im using sunday night futures as a bell weather for this crucial week in spx. the last time a bear engulfing pattern developed daily that broke through average and geaded for the former buy zone we extended the trend about 100% to the downside. that would be far from a marginal move for the index as it stands, but would still hold the monthly and quarterly uptrend.
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday
Supports:
• Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502
• Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506
Overview:
We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677.
Key Zones for Monday:
• 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup.
• 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here
• 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions.
Resistances:
• Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976
• Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944,
The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction.
Bull Case for Monday:
Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended.
Bear Case for Monday:
The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure.
Summary for Monday:
The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
20241101 ESThe scenario is on the chart. Initial upside => reversal downside on NFP => d ss raid => reversal to the upside and nice finish of the SandD week. That is NFP even. That is why it is better to see the initial reaction for any further judgments.
Es levels and targets Nov 1stOn Wednesday evening, ES saw its first short trigger in over a week by breaking below 5843. This led to 30 hours straight of steady selling, reaching the 5744 target. We’re seeing a relief pop now, but bears still remain in control until 5802 and 5828 are recovered.
As of now: Upside targets are 5770, 5788, and 5802. Key support is 5741; if that fails, 5721-26 zone next down
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do.
Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM.
Trading Plan:
Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open.
Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally.
Intraday Strategy:
Hold a bullish outlook until the market open.
Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions.
Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.
2024-2025: A New Global Crisis with Echoes of 2008In 2024, a new global crisis begins , and as usual, crises in the U.S. strongly impact the global economy, causing synchronized market declines worldwide. The S&P 500 market peak has been reached. The 2024–2025 crisis will be comparable in scale to the 2008 crisis, with a target decline range of 37-57% from the market peak. In terms of duration, the crisis is expected to persist throughout 2025 and may end in 2026. A more precise forecast of the crisis's conclusion can be made by monitoring the actions of the Federal Reserve, including changes in the United States Money Supply M2.
S&P 500: Reached forecasted supportVery bearish day! Hope you managed to get some profits out of it!
Price is at support now, but it just might go a little lower still. It will be choppy all the way down though.
If you're a short term trader, then you can look at the 5 or 15min charts. Make sure there's some kind of reversal chart pattern (like double/ triple bottom / inverted H&S) formed at the 5min before taking a Buy trade.
Trade safely & NEVER risk more than you should!
ES levels and targets Oct 31stAfter a full week stuck in the same range, ES finally broke lower, triggering shorts yesterday evening—the first breakdown in over a week, as outlined in yesterday’s 4pm trading plan. Bears have the advantage now until a resistance level reclaims.
As of now: 5828 needs to recover to establish a potential low. Next downside targets are 5800, followed by 5792-88.
Anticipating a Retracement Before Shorting. wait for news/openThe tech sector has experienced a decline following the Q3 earnings reports. I am looking for a balanced retracement to yesterday's closing value. From that area, I plan to initiate a continued short position.
ES Price Action Review RTH 10-30 and Overnight 10-31Going over the RTH ES WEdnesday and the overnight session. Reviewing for clues the market was leaving us and we're coming up with a plan for today.
ES1 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonicThe Bullish 5-0 pattern which has been at play over the last few years has finally run its course to price target at 1.272 extension. A bearish ABCD Extended pattern has formed recently, with retracement, but has reversed out of the prz and should drop rapidly to ABCD point C ~4350. This coincides with active bear deep crab harmonic on NQ1! (see prev post).
This is a Weekly chart intended to show trend reversal and swing trading at key pivots--not for intraday.
