ESZ2015 trade ideas
DR IDR + fvg (ICT) + DR IDR INCLINEDR IDR + fvg (ICT) + DR IDR INCLINE for a potential bullish setup.
March E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart - 12/18/23March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures continued the rally that began at the beginning of November, taking out the recent high from the last week in July. MACD recently experienced a bullish cross by crossing above its signal line. That relationship is widening, which indicates a continuing bullish trend. RSI is getting closer to being overbought at 70, though bearish divergence might be in play as the RSI is lower than its peak in August, even though price has taken out the high in August. This could indicate that momentum is weakening, and a reversal might occur. If the bullish trend continues, resistance might be found at the April 2022 high of 4,860. A reverse to the downside could find support at the 61.8% Fib level (4,530) and at the 52-week moving average (~4,400).
Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of analysis (12/15/23). Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
DR IDR fvg + incline + ICTSee incline in DR + fvg for entry for potential bullish retirement setup based off of both defining range and ICT
Jingle Bulls: Analyzing the E-mini S&P 500's Year-End RallyIntroduction
The Santa Claus rally, a well-documented phenomenon in the financial markets, particularly in the context of the E-mini S&P 500, presents a captivating study of market behavior during the holiday season. This rally, often characterized by an uptrend in the stock market, offers a confluence of joy and opportunity for traders and investors alike. Our extensive analysis will delve deep into the intricacies of this phenomenon, unraveling its significance in the broader market context.
Current Market Overview
Over the past two decades, the E-mini S&P 500 has often mirrored the festive spirit with its performance during the Santa Claus rally. A close examination of the rally's seasonality since 2006 paints a picture of resilience and optimism, with only a handful of years bucking the trend. This pattern sets a compelling backdrop for our current year's analysis.
Technical Analysis of the Santa Claus Rally
The preliminary signs of the Santa Claus rally begin to surface as autumn wanes. The technical indicators in November, particularly the moving averages, RSI, and MACD, provide a glimpse into the market's preparatory phase for the rally. This early analysis is critical in setting expectations and understanding the underlying market sentiment.
December's arrival marks the acceleration of the rally. The daily timeframe charts during this month are a testament to the burgeoning bullish sentiment, with technical indicators aligning to confirm the trend's strength.
A broader perspective is gained through a weekly timeframe analysis, which smoothens out the daily volatilities and provides clarity on the rally's sustained nature.
The monthly timeframe charts link the current rally to the historical market cycles, offering a comprehensive view of the rally's significance in the long-term market trends.
Historical Context and Comparative Analysis
The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, is not a recent phenomenon. Historical data dating back over the past two decades reveals a pattern of consistent end-of-year rallies. Analyzing these instances, we find that in 14 out of the last 18 years, the E-mini S&P 500 experienced a significant uptick during this period. Notably, the failed rallies often coincided with broader market stressors or significant global events, offering insights into the rally's sensitivity to external influences. This comparative analysis underscores the rally's reliability but also highlights its exceptions, reminding traders that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.
Economic Indicators and External Factors
The Santa Claus rally in the E-mini S&P 500 doesn't occur in isolation. It is influenced by a myriad of economic indicators and external factors. Key among these is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which can significantly sway market sentiment. Inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth figures also play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction during this period. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions and international trade relations can impact investor confidence, thereby affecting the rally. This interplay of factors necessitates a vigilant approach to market analysis, recognizing that the Santa Claus rally is as much about economic fundamentals as it is about seasonal trends.
Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior
The psychology driving the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating aspect of this phenomenon. During this period, a general sense of optimism pervades the market, often leading to increased buying activity. For many traders, this rally represents a culmination of the year's trends and a final push for year-end profits. However, this optimism needs to be tempered with caution. The rally can sometimes lead to overexuberance, resulting in inflated asset prices and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of the potential for a market correction following the rally and should approach trading during this period with a balanced mindset, combining optimism with risk awareness.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management
Navigating the Santa Claus rally requires tailored trading strategies and effective risk management. Traders might consider positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected uptrend, but with safeguards against unexpected market shifts. Utilizing stop-loss orders and setting clear profit targets can help in managing risks. Diversification across asset classes may also provide a buffer against potential volatility within the E-mini S&P 500. Additionally, traders should stay attuned to market indicators and news, as these can provide early signals of changes in the rally's trajectory. Ultimately, a disciplined approach, balancing the eagerness to exploit the rally with prudent risk management, is key to navigating this period successfully.
Conclusion
The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, offers a microcosmic view of the broader market dynamics at play during the year's end. This phenomenon, while rooted in historical patterns and influenced by a blend of economic indicators and market sentiment, requires a nuanced understanding and a strategic approach. As we close the chapter on another year's rally, traders are reminded of the constant interplay between market optimism and the reality of economic fundamentals. The insights gleaned from this analysis not only shed light on the rally itself but also serve as a guiding framework for navigating future market movements with agility and foresight.
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Calling the markets with precisionGot to the price level we were expecting 4802.50 but fell 1 tic short. On Dec 18 2023 the high of the day was 4801.25. Done for the 2023 Happy New Year.
12/18 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Trend with Cautious Watch
The market continues its upward trajectory, indicated by 8 consecutive green days, but now faces a critical juncture just under major resistance. While the bullish trend is dominant, traders should be vigilant for any trend reversals.
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Tesla's Wage Increase: Impacts on union interest at the Nevada Gigafactory.
North Korea's ICBM Launch: Escalating geopolitical tensions.
Market Reactions: Mixed signals with rising Treasury yields and fluctuating European and Asian markets.
Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute: Agreement to resolve peacefully.
China's Economic Challenges: Deflation risks highlighted by falling pork prices.
Crypto Political Influence: Super PAC's significant funding for the 2024 elections.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: New EU sanctions amidst Putin's re-election plans.
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
📉 Support Levels
Major: 4788-90, 4781, 4772, 4766, 4763, 4753, 4744, 4730-34, 4726, 4719, 4708, 4698-4700, 4692, 4684, 4673, 4663-66, 4654, 4648, 4634, 4630, 4618-20.
Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670.
📈 Resistance Levels
Major: 4796, 4806, 4810-12, 4817, 4825-27, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4873, 4883, 4900, 4906, 4910, 4923-25, 4932, 4945, 4953, 4962, 4976, 4990, 5002.
Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838.
📝 Trading Plan
Bull Case Analysis:
Key Levels: 4781, 4772.
Strategy: Maintain the breakout, targeting 4808-10.
Risks: Be cautious after 8 green days, the trend could shift.
Bear Case Analysis:
Target Short Entry: If 4773 fails, consider shorts with caution.
Profit Targets: Watch for potential dips towards 4708.
Strategy: Discipline in profit-taking is key, watch for market traps.
Tomorrow’s Outlook:
Discipline and Strategy: Monitor 4781 and 4773 supports closely.
The market remains bullish, but a shift is possible at any moment. Monitor support and resistance levels diligently and adjust strategies as needed.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Market TopNever can predict, but I think this is it for the market. Maybe a boring week, maybe a chaotic one. However, a move is coming, whether it be a breakout from ATH, a massive pullback afterward, or just a simple rejection. Whether your personal view, be cautious!
20231218 RTH SESSION PREPToday price action is skewed to the sideway/upside but it should be be grind type of chop.
Preferred trades: LONG
Top purple upper zone is major LIS and it will be strongly defended so aggressive short from this level is great trade.
On the downside we have few support zones as it is draw on the chart.
Expect New Record Highs on Wall Street Thanks to Fed PoliciesThe current state of central banks, along with declining inflation in the United States and Jerome Powell's comments hinting at a possible rate cut next year, led to a series of record highs in financial markets this week.
Risk appetite remains high ahead of the Christmas break, a traditionally favorable time for equity investments.
As we do each week, we will take a look at the latest developments in the macroeconomic landscape, the energy sector, currencies, and equity markets.
A brief but comprehensive overview to keep you informed.
US Interest RatesUS Interest Rates
Crude Oil CL prices are finally recovering this week, although the increase is less than other risky assets that continue their upward trend that began in November.
However, it appears that the string of seven consecutive weeks of declines has come to a halt.
The latest OPEC report provided support for this recovery, as the cartel forecasts record demand next year.
Despite economic uncertainties, demand is estimated to increase by about 2.2 million barrels per day, bringing the market into a deficit state as OPEC+ continues its efforts to reduce production.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency's forecast is less optimistic as it still predicts a surplus in the oil market in 2024 despite a demand growth forecast of 1.1 mbpd.
One of the major stories of the week was Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) Automotive Inc. RIVNpfizer (+18%), the electric vehicle manufacturer that experienced strong growth after announcing a business partnership with AT&T (NYSE:T), the telecommunications giant.
This partnership will see Rivian supply its vans and pickup trucks for AT&T's fleet of vehicles by the end of the year.
As part of the agreement, AT&T will also provide network connectivity in Rivian's cars.
In the wake of declining demand for the anti-Covid vaccine, Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) PFE has warned the market that earnings and sales for 2024 will not meet Wall Street expectations.
Investors are also ignoring the major $43 billion acquisition of innovative cancer specialist Seagen, as it will not make up for lost revenues from Covid.
To address this situation, Pfizer has announced 500 layoffs and future savings of $3.5 billion.
After eight weeks of consecutive increases, the price of Bitcoin BTC/USD dropped 2.5 percent from the previous Monday, falling back below $42,000 at the time of this writing.
After experiencing a 56 percent increase in just two months, many investors in the cryptocurrency market are making their profits on BTC, which may explain this week's slowdown.
Meanwhile, the most anticipated event remains the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Many industry experts believe that the first positive responses on the approval of these products could come early next year.
In conclusion, the atmosphere continues to be full of positivity, as typical of the Christmas season.
Fisker Inc ChartFisker Inc Chart
The year 2023 ended with a real twist from the Fed.
Not even the most unabashed optimist could have dreamed of such a favorable scenario. Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have revised their individual positions since September.
Goodbye high rates, A real boon for stock markets.
My positions remain firm on the Chinese Futures Hang Seng HK50 index and Fisker (NYSE:FSR) FSR stock where I have chosen on both the accumulation buy mode. However, it is important to note that I am in a bearish position on GC Gold as I anticipate a descent which will be explained in more detail in the next article.
12/17 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish
The market has been on a steady upward trend, with the March ES contract rolling from December front month to March. The key support and resistance levels have been identified, focusing on the 4756-58 to 4786 range.
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
The discovery of a large tunnel near the Gaza border by Israel has sparked concerns about the adequacy of its prewar intelligence. In the U.S., the Biden campaign has sharply criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric, comparing it to Adolf Hitler. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair has cautioned against irrational market optimism despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of decline, there's skepticism about whether corporate America will lower prices. Meanwhile, stock futures remain stable following a seven-week rally in major market averages.
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
📉 Support Levels
Major: 4770-72, 4766, 4756-58, 4750, 4743, 4731-34, 4724, 4719, 4704-08, 4699, 4692, 4687, 4683, 4678, 4674, 4764-66, 4660, 4654, 4647, 4644.
Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670.
📈 Resistance Levels
Major: 4776, 4781-83, 4786, 4794, 4808-10, 4817, 4826, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4871, 4877, 4883, 4900-05, 4920, 4925, 4933, 4945, 4953, 4963, 4975, 4985-90, 5002.
Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838.
📝 Trading Plan
Bull Case Analysis
Recent Trend: The S&P 500 futures (ES) maintain a bullish momentum with 7 consecutive green weeks.
Premise: Expecting further uptrend, consolidating within the 4756-4786 range.
Key Zone: 4756-58, critical for bulls. Watch for consolidation and potential breakout towards 4808-10.
Strategy: Bulls anticipate a continuation pattern within this range, eyeing a push to higher resistance levels.
Risk Factors: Key risk includes a breakdown below 4756, leading to potential backtest towards lower supports.
Bear Case Analysis
Premise: Potential for a downturn if key support at 4756 is breached.
Target Short Entry: Around 4752 post-breakdown of 4756.
Profit Targets: Aim for 4740-43 and lower if the breakdown occurs.
Strategy: High-risk/reward breakdown trades; caution advised due to their challenging nature.
Execution: Avoid impulsive trades; focus on clear setups and key levels.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
ES Weekly Levels (Dec 18-22)The market broke out of its three-week consolidation above the July high following dovish comments from Powell and the possibility of three rate cuts next year. The ES and NQ are now only 5% off all-time highs and have recovered almost all their losses from 2022. The rally has broadened as small and mid-caps played catch-up into the end of the year, posting strong weekly gains. All-time highs are now a possibility heading into the end of the year.
SUMMARY
ES finished the 7th week with a gains up 2.35 % after trading in a range of 133 pts.
ES successfully broke the July high & starts the week just below 1.13 Fib X resistance.
ES up 14% since Oct low and within 5% of ATH
SPX 2% from ATH
First resistance is the 1.13 Fib X (4813)
First support is the July 27th high.(4734)
Above 1.13 Fib X resistance the upside targets are the Mar 29th high, 1.272 X and the ATH
Below July 27th high support the downside targets are the 9 ema, Sept 1st high and 55 ema.
Broad market strength continued with XLRE, XLI, XLB, XLY & XLF all making 3% plus gains last week.
Econ data this week includes PCE, Durable goods, Consumer conf & GDP.
Small & Mid cap showing relative strength
Bullish setup into year end but pull back likely as price is overbought
RSI 78 | VIX at 12.27 | 10 year 3.91%
ES - Bullish - 3rd Week of DecemberContinued Bullish Bias on ES. Having met 2.5 Standard Deviations coupled with SMT, a decent retracement before more bullish expansion is realistic. Wednesday Low of the Week, Midweek Rally/Reversal, Consolidation Thursday Reversal all in play with USD news Wednesday - Friday. I will be watching for Bullish Sponsorship from the Daily Bisi.
Last full week of trading for the year...we have a blue shaded bullish FVG price might want to drop down into before going up in to 4802.50 and 4833.75
I have drawn up some levels for the week, please take a look. Here we are looking at the MES , I will be looking for long set ups and possibly
scalping shorts if the opportunity presents itself. We do have more incoming data
so expect year end volatility.
CAN YOU BEAR IT .....yet?Here' a nice simple 4 hr chart that I use. No coding required. I can code. But why reinvent the wheel? The nice thing about TV is the thousands of FREE, already coded, every permutation, of every published trading indicators that I have ever thought of.
Support/resistance zones for Globex December 17/18 sessionPremarket preparation for Globex trading session December 17/18
Monday Globex will be most probable rotational between two inner blue zones with possible excursion to the green support or red resistance zones... It is hard to see we can break outside of the purple LIS zones on the upside or downside...at least in Globex...
Type of the price action (mostly for RTH as dealers will be more proactive but also possible for Globex too) could be the same as we have it last 10-15 days.... Shorter moves with overlapping candles and struggling to go on both sides... More like grinding PA then to have clear impulses...
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon!
As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work.
To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons:
1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan.
2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently.
3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year.
4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting.
With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda.
This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year.
A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February.
This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%.
Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls.
Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation.
Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.fool.com
www.jstor.org
ES Intraday Levels for Dec 15Key zones 4768/66, failure here means we might possibly trade 4746 zone.
4759.50 support
4756-46 area support
4745-41 major support, failure here might mean bigger down trend setup.
12/14 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish
Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback.
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Markets rally strongly on FOMC Dot Plot forecasting 3 rates cuts totaling up to 0.9% in 2024.
European Central Bank and the Bank of England each hold rates steady this morning.
📷 Snapshot
Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:
EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
📉 Support Levels
Major: 4772, 4756, 4740-43, 4710-05, 4660-65
Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670
📈 Resistance Levels
Major: 4780-83, 4804-08, 4845, 4860-63
Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838
📝 Trading Plan
Bull Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
Recent Trend: ES (S&P 500 futures) has experienced a strong bullish trend, marked by six consecutive green days.
Bull Case Premise: Continuation of the uptrend through pattern formation and support maintenance.
Key Levels and Patterns:
Support Zone: 4756, pivotal for bulls to maintain control.
Target Range: 4756-4783, seen as a potential consolidation area.
Upside Objective: A move towards the 4804-08 zone, acting as a magnet level.
Strategy and Risks:
Pattern Building: Bulls expect ES to form a continuation pattern within the target range, setting the stage for another leg up.
Risk of Breakdown: Failure to hold 4756 increases the risk of a backtest towards the 4710-05 area.
Execution Caution: Traders should be wary of false breakouts and maintain strict risk management.
Bear Case Analysis
Scenario Overview:
Bear Case Premise: A break below key support leading to a downward move.
Key Levels and Patterns:
Critical Support: 4756, the level below which breakdown trades become viable.
Target Short Entry: Around 4752, following a failed bounce at 4756.
Profit Targets: First target at 4740-43, capturing the move below the day's low.
Strategy and Risks:
Breakdown Trades: These are high risk/reward but have a low success rate (60% expected to fail).
Execution Skill: Requires skill to execute successfully; not advisable for traders uncomfortable with these odds.
Rule of Thumb: Avoid chasing the price; wait for a clear trade setup and reaction at the key level.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
ES Weekly Levels Dec(11-15) Market tested support last week and the recovered to close the week flat. NQ successfully retested the 21 ema and ES pulled back and recovered from the 9 ema. Market held to top of the range just below the July high setting up for a break in either direction going into this week's CPI data and FOMC rate decision.
SUMMARY
ES finished the week with a gain of 0.12 % after trading in a range of 62 pts.
ES successfully re-tested the 9 ema and closed at the top of the recent range.
Dec Futures contract rolled over to Mar so continuous contract levels have changed
Jul 27th high within striking distance, but price must push through the MTF 886 Fib retracement
First resistance is 886 Fib RT (4666)
First support is Sept 1st high (4647)
If price breaks the 886 Fib a move to 4730 is likely
If price breaks below the Sept 1st high a move to 4574 is likely.
CPI data due out Tues & FOMC Rates decision on Wed
XLE, XLP & XLB showed relative weakness while XLY outperformed
With 10year yield at 4.23% risk assets cont to show strength with small cap growth & BTC posting another positive week
VIX at 12.35
