Gold vs. S&P 500 over the last 5 yearsBoth Gold & the S&P 500 are up about +50% over the past 5 years... Which asset class will outperform over the next 5 years??? by Robertlesnicki0
GOLD 1978 Target Hit, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the Gold futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives tot arget #Gold01:09by Tickmill4
/GC (Gold Future)Analysis /GC (Gold) Future 1. high made 2014.9 and rejected by the upper wedge TL and tested the Prev. Month high 1975.3 2. MACD histogram is faddign off and sell volume can be seen 3. possible re-test of 1942.6 to 1918.8 4. If sell continues then 1902.9 to 50 DMA 1889.2Shortby Gowdru2
Gold targeting $2250 or higher - then a PauseAre you following my research? It amazes me that I can post a chart/video predicting something to happen 3 to 6+ months in advance, then sit back and watch it play out. Gold has entered a new phase - much different than everyone thinks. This is not 2009~2011 all over again. This is 2003~05 repeating. The next phase of the US market trend, and Gold, will blow everyone away. After reaching levels above $2200, Gold will stall for about 4+ months to levels just below $2000. Then, as we move past Q1:2024, Gold will begin to advance as uncertainty settles across the globe. near the end of 2024, I expect Gold to make a move higher - possibly targeting $2800 or higher. Into 2025, I suspect Gold will attempt to rally above $3000, but will quickly stall into a sideways trend as a new US President dictates policy/trends. 2026 is something we'll have to wait for to see how things play out. My research suggests Gold will continue to trend higher. But, there is a very strong possibility Gold will move above $4k before the end of 2026. So, we'll just have to see what happened with the elections in 2024. Follow my research. Learn how I can help you stay ahead of these crazy market trends. Longby BradMatheny0
Market Structure Broken on GoldA continued decrease in the value of GOLD is anticipated, which recently experienced a rise from $1620 to $1970 price levels between November 2022 and February 2023. GC shows signs of weakness and is likely to continue to head lower, as indicated by the strong rejection of the $1970 price level. The strategy involves a weak correction upward towards the MSS line, followed by a sell-off targeting the $1864 bullish order block. If the trend persists and the order block fails, then the sell-off is likely to continue toward sellside liquidity below the order block as a secondary intermediate term objective shooting for $1830. Further potential targets include $1804, $1793, and $1778 levels after that. Ideally this play I would like to see with large range candles slicing through with relative ease. If the retrace toward the MSS line breaks the $1975 high, then the trade idea will be invalidated. Shortby DenisRisticFXUpdated 2212
GOLD TO HOLDAccording to my chart analysis of GOLD FUTURES, there is a high probability of an increase towards 1991.0 level in the next weeks .Longby Abderrahmane_BoucettaUpdated 2
Inflation on 20 years "Borrowed Time"Gold started its rally since 2000. Whereas inflation and interest rates remain low since 2000. Reason for the "Borrowed Time"? Because easy money policy was needed to create: 1) An increase in money supply 2) By lowering its interest rates Purpose for easy money policy? 3 major events after 2000: 1) Middle East War 2) Subprime crisis 3) Covid-19 rescue plan (it tipped in 2020) The after effect of the accumulated easy money policy seem to be at its beginning. Meaning more upside for inflation and interest rates. Meaning Gold to continue its upward momentum. For traders - 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 See the video version below Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com by konhow2
things are looking sketchy, time to hold fiat and gold.without saying too much, i see two possibilities here 1. we are about to see the largest economic collapse in any of our lifetimes 2. we are about to see the kickoff of hyperinflation either way, i think it might be a good time to hold some silver and gold. crypto isnt decentralized, dont trust it.by bmrm980
Gold Shines amid Global Financial DistressCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Gold prices surged Friday as a wave of banking crises shook global financial markets. Spot gold climbed 3.1% to $1,977.89 per ounce, its highest level since April 2022. Gold price is now within $100 of its all-time high of $2,074.88. In the futures market, the nearby April contract of COMEX gold futures settled at $1,973.5, where the far-month June 2024 contract closed at $2,076.9. The year-long Fed rate hikes cracked the US banking system. Within two weeks, we have witnessed the collapses of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York. First Republic Bank, a mid-sized bank in California, received $30 billion emergency injection from 11 largest American banks, led by JP Morgan. Interestingly, it was J.P. Morgan who organized a $30 million rescue plan to avert the collapse of Wall Street in 1907. That crisis led to the creation of Federal Reserve System. A century later, the cost of bank bailout increases by 1,000 folds. However, bank runs have already spread. Credit Suisse, a prestigious investment bank, is under distress. On Sunday evening, fellow Swiss bank UBS announced that it is acquiring Credit Suisse. Gold Price Rises in Times of Major Crises In the past two decades, gold price peaked in times of market turbulence. • The 2008 financial crisis • The 2010 European debt crisis • The 2018-19 US-China trade conflict • The outbreak of COVID pandemic • The Russia-Ukraine conflict • The March 2023 bank run Gold price is also negatively correlated with the US dollar. Last year, when Dollar rose on the back of Fed tightening, gold took a beating. Now, as investors expect the Fed to slow rate hikes, gold shines through the chaos. Investing in Gold: what in there for you? • Diversification: Gold helps reduce the overall risk of your portfolio by providing a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation • Tax efficiency: Long-term capital gains on gold investments are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, which is lower than 37% for other long-term capital gains • Protection against rising prices: Gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, and it can help protect your purchasing power • Liquidity: Gold ETFs and Gold Futures are highly liquid financial instruments. Many brokers also buy and sell gold bars and gold coins, with a commission. • Hedge against difficult economic conditions: Gold is a global store of value, and it can provide financial cover during geopolitical and economic uncertainty • Portfolio diversifier: Gold can act as a hedge against inflation and deflation alike, as well as a good portfolio diversifier In a previous writing, I showed that gold did not work well as a hedge against inflation. However, gold holds up extremely well during major crises where other assets lost value. Hedging against Known and Unknown Risks Risk on, gold goes up. Risk off, gold declines. Some risks are expected, while others come as a surprise. Fed rate actions are scheduled events and can be considered known or expected risk. CME FedWatch Tool shows the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings. It analyzes the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data. As of March 19th, FedWatch estimates a 38% chance of Fed keeping the current rate unchanged at 450-475 bp, and 62% odds of increasing 25 bp to 475-500 bp. By providing $300 billion in emergency lending to member banks, the Fed has effectively put Quantitative Easing at work. In my opinion, the Fed has switched its priority from fighting inflation to crisis management. Managing the systemic risk in the US banking system outweighs the battle against inflation at this time. It’s a matter of priority. What’s unknown is the potential failure of any bank not yet exposed in the news. US banks are estimated to sit on unrealized loss in hundreds of billions of dollars in their bond portfolio, largely consisted of Treasury and US agency bonds. As the “held-to-maturity” asset will be sold or marked down, these banks could run into trouble by a run of depositors and investors. In this unusual time, no news is good news. Short-term Trading Strategies The upcoming FOMC meeting on March 22nd make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Micro Gold Futures. Here is my logic: • If the Fed keeps the rate unchanged, stock market would rally. As a major risk is removed from the financial system, gold price would fall • If the Fed raises 25 bps, stock market would fall, and gold price would rally, potentially breaking the current record high Micro Gold Futures (MGC) contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,993.4, an April 2023 contract (MGCJ3) is valued at $19,934. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $800. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. If gold price moves up to $2,050, a long futures position would gain $566. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +70.8%, excluding commissions. If gold price moves down to $1,900, a short futures position would gain $934, a theoretical return of +116.8%. Unexpected market event could be a trigger for gold price to rally. An event-driven trade idea could be constructed around it. In my opinion, comparing to the distress of regional banks, the systematic risks triggered by a Big Bank failure could send global market in shock at ten times the magnitude. If the Fed raises rate next week, I expect more bank failures to coming in the next few months. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Longby JimHuangChicago1110
GCJ3 High: 2000.00 Low: 1910.00 HigherWeekly Kickoff levels are longer timeframe levels where we believe longer time traders will adjust inventories.Longby TopstepOfficial2
Gold MCX 65000 Rs target readyHi MCX gold future may reach 65k Fib leval mentioned check it Great opportunity Longby paisachapo0
GOLD enjoying the risk off rallyGold continues its ascend in the risk off environment. With the breakout confirmation at the 1870 resistance region, Gold continues its ascend relentlessly forming a new recent high. Next resistance region is identified at the 2000 level, which is just shy away from last week's high. If the 2000 does not hold, we can potentially see Gold back at the top of the range. Recent price action of Gold is overextended and we can potentially see a huge correction with the FOMC lined up. by TrainingTrader2
Gold and SPXIf SPX is getting ready for final leg down, Gold did well during same in 2000 and 2008by mpkalapala0
GOLD FUTURES!!!BUY GOLD TO 1950. if you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me.Longby elmehdisaddatiUpdated 9
Gold pumping up to $2,138 due to the banking collapse in AmericaRounding Bottom has formed on the daily. This was a shock to technical analysts as we saw a struggle with gold over the last 2 months to $1,818. 7>21>200 -Bullish The price failed to break below 200MA showing strong demand and buying. RSI<7- bullish Target $2,138 Now we've seen a number of banks collapse from SVB, Silvergate (crypto) Credit Suisse and Republic Bank. And there are now signs that there is contagion which could lead to another 10 - 100 banks to fail as well. There are a couple of reasons I can think of for the push up for gold. #1: Confidence in the financial system If big banks in America collapse, it can shake confidence in the financial system, leading investors to look for a safe haven asset like gold. #2: Inflation The collapse of big banks can lead to inflation as the government may print more money to support the economy. This can increase the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. #3: Economic uncertainty The collapse of big banks can create economic uncertainty. This can cause investors to seek the stability and security of gold. #4: Panic buying and protection The collapse of big banks can lead to panic buying of gold as investors rush to protect their assets. Once again this leads to gold being the safe haven asset to go to, which will push the price up. Longby Timonrosso2
the golden point today on gold!!!trade with positive mathematical expectency. if you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me.Longby elmehdisaddati2
GC1! Gold ChartGold going parabolic, but I think it has one more leg next week. The orange line is the March 2022 Ukraine war peak. So basically I'm saying gold hits the top again. Posting because of one of my followers.by hungry_hippo121215
long position on GCMy strtegy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like whilerespecting all the values that define the stock maketLongby batchangoyves2020
Gold (weekly chart update) I'm targeting gold at $1985 in USD by 4/3/23. Steady positive accumulation and on trajectory, although I don't expect the target to be linear (some summertime pullback is possible). I expect the P&F target to be reached in the fourth quarter of 2023. by UnknownUnicorn13101332
Gold gets a safe-haven bid as banks shake confidenceFinancial markets were sent into a tailspin on the news of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) imploding. Despite the decisive moves by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)1 and the Federal Reserve (Fed)2, market confidence has been shaken and we have witnessed a flight to safety. Demand for government bonds have risen sharply, driving the yields on 10-year US Treasuries down from 4.0% on 9/3/2023 to 3.4% (16/03/2023). In tandem, gold prices have risen 6.6% in the past week (9/3/2023 to 16/03/2023). The speed of gold’s moves indicates that the flight to safety has not been obstructed by any broad-based liquidity issues. Very often in the initial phases of financial market stress, investors sell gold to raise cash to meet margins calls on futures positions in other assets or for other liquidity needs. The current crisis appears different in that there are no visible signs of panic gold selling and that could be indicative that the stress in certain parts of the banking sector are idiosyncratic. Nevertheless, investors have been reminded that unexpected events occur with greater frequency than they hoped and have sought to rebuild defensive positions that will help to hedge against further turbulence. Credit Suisse concerns add to investors desire for defensive hedges The Credit Suisse debacle unfolding quickly on the heels of SVB highlights that when confidence is shaken in one part of the banking sector it can easily spread. All banks, deposit takers, brokers and lending institutions with weak metrics are under the microscope. A liquidity life-line offered by the Swiss National Bank on 16/03/2023 has allayed markets fears for now, but we believe that investors are likely to continue to seek defensive assets in this time of uncertainty. Either tightening or losing monetary policy could be interpreted as a policy mistake. Gold is there as a hedge. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points on 16/03/2023, marking a bold move given the fragile state of market confidence. However, blended with dovish commentary, markets are expecting less rate rises in the future and believe the 50 bps hike was delivered only because the ECB felt like it had pre-committed and any smaller hike would signal conditions are worse than what the market has priced in. The Euro appreciated against the dollar and the Dollar basket depreciated, providing further support for gold in Dollar terms. While the jury is out on whether the Federal Reserve will pivot its monetary policy early (note the Federal Open Committee meeting is on 21st and 22nd March), investors are seeking to protect themselves with hard assets. If the Fed doesn’t soften its hawkish stance, it risks transforming a bank liquidity issue into a recession as risk appetite and confidence has been shaken. If the Fed does act either by terminating quantitative tightening or prematurely ending the hike cycle, the central bank’s monetary largess will linger for longer. Either way, gold is likely to benefit. Gold tends to do well in recessions and is seen as the antithesis to central bank created fiat currencies. Gold gains are well supported We therefore expect gold to hold onto the past week’s gains in the is time of turbulence. The key short-term risk for gold at this stage is not market confidence recovering quickly, but a broader market meltdown that could drive gold selling to raise liquidity for meeting other obligations (such as margin calls). In that scenario, gold is likely to recover in time as other investors will buy the metal to shore up their defensive hedges. Sources 1 The FDIC provided more than its usual $250,000 insurance on deposits. 2 The Fed created a new liquidity tool - Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) - offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral.by aneekaguptaWTE1
GOLDM1! Price DropsGold Mini Futures looking bearish at the hourly chart for a close support 57408 with a potential to go further down to the 56319Shortby Khiwe1
XAUUSD Market ViewThe price movement approaching the resistance area with decreasing liquidity indicates a reduced enthusiasm of market participants to buy. This is also supported by the decreased concerns caused by the Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank incident. Therefore, it can be concluded to prepare for a selling position.Shortby ESA_MAHANANI114