Model projecting (and giving heads up) that a new (small) wave should be starting about 20 Dec 2022. This suggests that Singapore will go into 2023 with a COVID wave mostly brought back by holiday travellers. In fact, it has already started and the model just projects a date line where it gets noticeable for the media/regulators/agencies to pick it up too.
IF...
I do not know the robustness of the data collected, as it differs greatly in different places.
But with just a quick comparison:
Singapore relaxed mask measures on 29 August, and from early September, there was already an uptick and the MACD histograms pointed out to late September crossover. Indeed, on 30 September, CNA reported a 40% week on week increase in...
Heads up... Next Wave 5 is ON.
Not expected to be bigger than the initial Omicron wave, or even Delta for that matter, but significant enough.
This probably comes from imported cases with less screening and testing, as well as under reporting. The under reporting is messing with the data outcome and accuracy, also significantly dropping the heads up period......
As posted previously, data is (subtly) showing the start already... IF anyone really still cares.
Not expecting to be a major or steep wave... not yet at least.
May in crease in may
Palindromic pun intended.
As per previously modelled, the projection based on public data on cases project that in early May, Singapore should start the next wave... for now, it looks like a mild spike given the momentum trajectory.
26 April is when more measures are lifted, and rules are further eased... to pre-pandemic level " almost all the way to how things were "
So far, model is...
A week after calling the levelling off in reported infections, it did just that and few days later, the SG Health Minister's statement says that the omicron peak is over .
From the past few days, the ebb is slowing and the drop in infections appears to be picking up again. Do remember that virus infections are not exactly linear in amounts and in time as well....
Wave 4 (Omicron) appears to be tapering off, we would be able to know better in the latter part of March. For now, it would appear that the projection sees a rather steep tapering of COVID cases into end of March.
Good news! Not positive! lol...
At the start of the year, it was clear that the Omicron wave (Wave 4) started, as heads up by the previous post.
Wave 4 is ON now.
In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022
In the last two months, we can see that the infection rate escalated after the turn into February. Depicted by the white and...
Chart speaks a thousand words...
Wave 4 is ON now.
In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022
#marapr2022
In a rather surprising, and significant turn of events, when revisiting the daily counts (which are grossly under reported as many are asked to stay home with primarily ART testing; only PCR positives are logged) there appears to be another kink in the trajectory.
Earlier, the model projected a tapering of the numbers. This was also modelled in line with the...
At the present moment, in real life, there is a feel of relief. Some optimism that this can return to "new normal", with dining in reinstated on June 21.
Thing is, according to the projections based on the trend analysis, a small spike is already on the way and June 21-30 is about the time is gets noticeably serious.
Not so easy to get away when we are still...
Been a while since, and much has happened...
Now, the numbers are somewhat different as Singapore had decided to take a different stance, so bearing in mind that not every case is being tracked (by PCR) as a significant number is now being tested by default using the Antigen Rapid Test (ART) kits.
Nonetheless, since October 10th, the spread is slowing...
Singapore just made the USA travel advisory list... and we have not yet even open borders.
SG just need to first get its house in order, then dreams will work out.
Anyways, I was having a chat about the astronomical numbers (by SG standards) and we looked at the charts. Then we projected where there might be peaking out. Knowing full well that in Indonesia and...
Breakdown analysis of the past weeks on the Daily chart.
So far, this only failed for the KTV cluster, and as observed, is projecting very accurately.
No major measures, not likely to have a deceleration as it continues its trend.
Based on the Weekly chart...
There was NO end to the wave, a slight reprieve, but it was there, clear and present.
Sine the week of 19 July, it was a crossover, one that is significant and not to ignore. On the week of 30 August, the uptick was telling that the trend is real and resuming.
Now SG would really feel it now as the rate is clearly accelerating over...
Like a bad zombie movie, the unexpected happened. The start of July appeared as if all was going well, and then suddenly, a new cluster was discovered and the depth and width of this cluster spread was far deeper and wider than anticipated. The model did not pick up this incoming, and for the first time it failed to. This has significance as it is an anomalous...
Finally! The MACD histograms are heading further down, suggesting that we are moving into the clear and probably have control over the current wave. The week is "over" and weekly chart documents a retrograde. Looks like we are coming out of this on June 13th!
Looking at the weekly charts...
1. All, except ID, are increasing in Wave 3, with differing levels of acceleration.
2. ID may be having an uptick...
3. SG's momentum is still strong for another two weeks at least.
4. Both My and TH have strong momentum to further increase. MY's situation is bad enough with TH's situation being worse.
Overall, the three...
