The global economy is now embroiled in the most severe inflation shock since the 1970s. Inflation is showing a stubborn persistence evident from the recent readings on inflation globally. In March, the US headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) hit 8.5% annually and the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 11.2%. In the euro-area, headline CPI inflation surged to 7.5%...
These 2 charts have been following eachother since Aug 2020 - this chart is the answer to the question: is bitcoin an inflation haven?
Right now yes it is, and even at these price levels - obv too early too tell but this is encouraging sign
Chart: action reaction chart off major pivots
Here we are looking at breakeven inflation and inflation protected securities
People buying inflation hedges (including gold) are getting rekt
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I used to believe in hyperinflation and a...
Breakeven inflation is dropping,inflation-protected securities are underperforming
It appears the system is creaking
Gold will follow breakeven inflation
NOT TRADING ADVICE
It appears that 10's are coiling up with two potential trendlines to watch (converging orange lines on the chart). Since failing just under 1.70 three weeks ago the latest trend has been down despite a more hawkish Fed and rising 2-year yields. This has led to dramatic flattening across the curve before the latest FOMC meeting. Ahead of Wednesday's announcement,...
www.bondeconomics.com
Break-even inflation is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-rate investment and the real yield (fixed spread) on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. If inflation averages more than the break-even, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the fixed-rate. Conversely, if inflation...
Inflation breakeven plot is becoming concerning to me. What are your thoughts? Ignore the support/resistance levels - those are not applicable on economic indicators.
With inspiration from the Financial Times:
www.ft.com
10-year inflation expectations(T10YIE) are stable while the US 10 yield (US10Y) and 10-year TIPS (treasury inflation-indexed security, DFII) are falling. This means that real rates are dropping as they are calculated as the nominal rate (US10Y) minus inflation expectations(T10YIE).
The Financial Times argue...
There is far more to "markets" than Charts.
Risks appear as IF unknown when all eyes are focused
upon Charts - this has been demonstrated time and again.
Yet it remains mostly ignored.
There are immense Risks to the Equity Complex.
Today is a Prime Example of Wall Street getting its fills for
the upcoming correction - it will be swift, violent and...
The global credit impulse peaked in Q420 and it leads reflation trades by 9-12 months. Which means they're dead in the water now.
Back to the secular Quadrant 1 of my Macro Compass - listen to the video to find out how to position your portfolio accordingly.
