Weekly Analysis & Market Crash PredictionHere's a video going over what I'm watching heading into the week and what I expect leading up to FOMC. I'll do some more FOMC and market analysis before then as we get closer to Wednesday. Overall, I don't expect much, I think we'll have downside and chop until then. Either way, any moves made on Monday and Tuesday can be wiped out insantly on Wednesday, so I'll focus on some small day trades and averaging into longer dated puts for Monday and Tuesday most likely.
DXY trade ideas
Dollar index price forecast: DXY falls into the channelDear traders!
The Dollar Index price is currently falling near solid support at 104.97 including several old peaks that appeared at that height. The blue 89 EMA simple moving average also located at 104.80 will likely provide some support.
On the downside, a decisive break below support at 104.97 would signal a downside continuation to a possible target at the lower channel line, at which point a stay in the vicinity of 104.00 could be sought. set as the ultimate goal.
Given the current picture, can we expect a correction in DXY? Share your thoughts on where DXY goes next in this exciting market!
Economic Indicators and DXY: Navigating CPI and FOMCHello Traders,
In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the DXY for a potential selling opportunity around the 105.700 zone. The DXY had been trading in an uptrend but recently managed to break out of this trend. Currently, it is in a correction phase, approaching the key retrace area at the 105.700 support and resistance zone. This level is crucial as it has historically acted as a pivot point for price action.
However, it is essential to consider the broader economic context, particularly with two major events on the horizon: the release of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, both scheduled for tomorrow.
The CPI data will be a critical indicator of inflationary pressures within the US economy. A higher-than-expected CPI reading (a hot CPI) would indicate rising inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance. This would likely involve tightening monetary policy further, potentially leading to a stronger US dollar. In this scenario, we would reconsider and likely cancel our short position on the DXY, as a stronger dollar would work against the trade setup.
On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in softer than expected, indicating lower inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve may lean towards a more dovish stance. This dovish outlook could involve maintaining or even easing current monetary policies, which would likely weaken the US dollar. A weaker dollar would support our bearish view on the DXY, making the 105.700 zone a favorable entry point for short positions.
Additionally, last week's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report also showed robust employment numbers, adding another layer of complexity to the Fed's decision-making process. The interplay between strong employment data and CPI readings will be crucial in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy trajectory.
In summary, while we are looking at the 105.700 zone as a potential selling point for the DXY, it is imperative to stay alert to the upcoming CPI and FOMC announcements. These events will provide significant insights into the US economic outlook and the Fed's policy direction, both of which are pivotal for our trading strategy.
Trade safely,
Joe
Dollar Index (DXY): Classic Gap Trade
I see a nice gap up on Dollar Index.
As always, chances are high that it will be filled soon.
Approaching a key daily horizontal resistance,
the Index started leaving bearish clues.
I spotted a confirmed breakout of a support line of a symmetrical
triangle formation on an hourly time frame.
The Index may drop soon and reach 104.95 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY could rise back to 106.50 resistanceThe beginning of May marked the start of a correction for the DXY, with the index dropping from 106.50 to the 104 support zone.
However, after finding support around 104 and undergoing a few days of consolidation, the much stronger-than-expected NFP data last Friday led to a reversal for the US Dollar, as evidenced by a significant bullish engulfing pattern on our daily chart.
Yesterday, the index also broke above horizontal resistance, and at the time of writing, the price is 105.18.
I expect the uptrend to continue, potentially leading to a new test of the recent high at 106.50.
DXY Cheat Sheet Hello Traders,
By looking at the dollar index, we can see a zigzag pattern ( 5-3-5 ) forming.
Zigzag pattern is made of 3 waves:
Wave A = 5 waves
Wave B = 3 waves
Wave C = 5 waves
We are now in wave C= 5 waves, currently in subwave 3. Expecting USD weakness means XXXUSD Strength and USDXXX Weakness.
See lower timeframe:
DXY 4H - Ideally price retraces back to 50% - 61.8% fib. Wait for price to come back and then you can get in:
XXXUSD LONG
USDXXX SHORT
Dxy "Analyzing Recent Events and the U.S. Election's Impacts"In this analysis, we explore the recent performance of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and its potential trajectory across various timeframes. Against the backdrop of recent market events, including the U.S. presidential election, we aim to uncover insights into potential trends and pivotal levels shaping the index's movement.
Impact of Recent Events, Including the U.S. Election 🗳️
The outcome of the recent U.S. presidential election has had a notable impact on financial markets, particularly on the U.S. Dollar Index. The election results, along with broader geopolitical developments and economic indicators, have influenced market sentiment and expectations regarding future fiscal and monetary policies. Understanding the implications of these events is crucial in assessing the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index in the coming weeks and months.
Impact of Last Week's NFP News 📊
Last week's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report significantly influenced market dynamics, particularly impacting the U.S. Dollar Index. The report revealed robust job growth, surpassing market expectations. This fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, potentially leading to further tightening measures. Consequently, the dollar experienced heightened buying pressure, resulting in a breakout from its previous consolidation range.
Weekly Timeframe Analysis 📈
On the weekly timeframe, following a pivotal test of the key support level at 104, a pin bar candle emerged, signaling the potential initiation of a fresh bullish trend.
Daily Timeframe Analysis 📅
In the daily timeframe, following a 52-day consolidation, a strong candle with all the characteristics of a breakout (full body and no shadows) breached the trendline. Confirmation of the continuation of this move would occur if today's candle closes above 105.124. Considering the potential fakeout of the yellow trendline and the support near the key level of 104, there is a possibility of further continuation of this move towards 106.38.
4-Hour Timeframe Analysis ⏲️
The recent trend, catalyzed by last week's news, initiated a breakout on the 4-hour timeframe. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering the overbought zone, the potential for continued upward momentum towards the 105.559 level is evident. However, a re-entry into the consolidation range with a strong candle may indicate a false breakout, potentially leading to a reversal towards the lower bounds.
Main Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 104 📉
Resistance: 106.4 📈
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice."
USD Index (DXY) Analysis Bullish Outlook Fundametnal Analysis:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently strong due to the high interest rate of 5.5% set by the Federal Reserve, steady GDP growth at 1.3%, manageable inflation at 3.4%, low unemployment at 4%, and robust consumer confidence at 69.1 points. These positive economic indicators attract foreign investment, bolstering the USD. Despite the trade deficit of -74.56 billion USD, the strong economic fundamentals support a resilient USD.
Tip: I think the Fed will hold rates due to uncertain inflation rises until the end of the year or next months. As long as the Fed maintains or increases rates with positive indicators such as NFP in the future, the USD will gain more strength against other currencies.
Technical Analysis:
After the positive NFP news, the price broke a strong bearish trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. If the price remains above the critical level of 105, there is a high probability that the bullish momentum will continue. This could drive the price up to the 106 level, which is the previous month's high (PMH). Maintaining this level would reinforce the bullish outlook, suggesting further upward movement in the near term.
overall view
From Strongets to Weakest Currency based on Fudametnal analysis
DXY COULD PUMP ONE LAST TIME The geopolitical situation makes it easy to guess that it could be the last pump before the big short
DXY IndexPair : DXY Index
Description :
Symmetrical Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves
RSI - Divergence
DXY BIAS BULLISH-Looking for 4hr FVG to be tagged, then looking for a 15min-1hr MSS
- Best day to enter this would be on a Tuesday or Wednesday London session or NYC Am session
- Things to watch out for before taking the trade, would be check there's fundamentals
sell usd todayHi there,
105.6 level of usd index is important for this week. You could sell it in this level with TP and SL we mentioned for you in chart.
Be profitable
Levels discussed on Livestream 10th June10th June
DXY: Consolidating at 105.30, could retrace slightly, looking for a continuation higher to 105.60 resistance
NZDUSD: Test and reject 0.6140, Sell 0.6130 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 20 TP 65
USDJPY: Complete retrace, Buy 156.75 SL 30 TP 65
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2745 SL 20 TP 60
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.0720
USDCHF: Buy 0.9030 SL 30 TP 70
USDCAD: Buy 1.3790 SL 20 TP 50
Gold: Needs to stay below 2315 for bearish downside continuation, strong support at 2280
USA Dollar to Zero value The sale of oil will now be in all currencies of the world. Most of all, today, the Russians, Chinese, and Saudis are fed up with the nonsense of the American treasury and the dollar. The BRICS cannot be stopped. Follow my steps: buy crypto now to protect your wealth.
Market Crash - Greenback BreakoutDXY has been consolidating in a fairly tight range since falling from the top in 2022. DXY has been strong lately and is up near the top end of the range. We also have a descending trendline it has broken above and sustained above for now. Once the 100-105 range breaks, it should lead to a large move and if it's up, we also have the trendline breakout for more confirmation.
DXY KEEPS TO BE APPRECIATING After the declining sweeps into 103,00's Nfp was banked on by the bulls, which lures to the mitigation of the substantial demand and GOLD begins to short .... sit tight and anticipate the moves .follow for more insights as the next insight will be published i the comment session .
Future Scenarios for the Dollar Index
As you know, the Dollar Index (DXY) impacts all major markets, including Forex, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. Therefore, as a trader, you should always keep an eye on this index 📈.
We are currently at a critical decision-making point for this index. This decision can determine the medium to long-term trend of the Dollar Index.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support: 104
Resistance: 104.4
A small range is forming between these levels, and breaking out of this range can be significant. However, we need a strong candle on the 4-hour timeframe to confirm this move 🕒.
Pattern Formation
A QM pattern is forming on this index in a downward direction. While it hasn't confirmed an entry yet, if we see a strong bearish candle on the 1-hour timeframe, we can consider entering positions on USD pairs 📉.
Risk Management Tips
Remember, risk management is crucial. In financial markets, anything can happen at any moment, and nothing is 100% certain ⚠️.
Categories
Trend Analysis
Support and Resistance
Risk Management
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Feel free to like, comment, and share your thoughts! 👍💬🔄
DXY|LONGDXY long setup |WEEKLY ANALYSIS|
The price in a bullish channel and we have h and sh pattern for break out the bearish trend line..
DXY - Weekly Forecast - 10 June 2024Weekly Forecast for DXY
I have a bullish bias.
Looking for longs at the areas highlighted, and potential moves back down at the higher highlighted areas.
Dollar Move - BullishTRADE
June 1, 2024.
Expect a run on sellstops and then a bullish move thru 107.000
Buy Program unfolding on D1.
Next week BUY signal and SHORT for Fiber and Cable.
DXY Bullish rallies from 105.200 or 104.400The bias for the dollar is to continue its bullish trend. We have seen a change of character on the higher time frame followed by a break of structure, confirming the upward movement. There are also equal highs above the current price that need to be swept.
Due to recent bullish momentum driven by news, the price may be exhausted. At the start of the week, we might see a drop in price as it mitigates a demand zone. Once the price taps into one of these marked demand zones, I expect a bullish reaction.
P.S. Once the price moves up, it may react to the 8-hour supply zone, causing a temporary sell-off. However, I won’t be surprised if this zone gets violated due to the liquidity pool sitting above it.
Levels discussed during livestream 14th June14th June
DXY: test resistance area of 105.60-105.70. (could retrace briefly due to end of week) Breaking resistance could trade up to 106.40
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6130 SL 20 TP 50 (Hesitation at 0.61)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 25 TP 70
USDJPY: Buy 158.40 SL 50 TP 100
GBPUSD: Wait for reaction at 1.2690
EURUSD: Sell 1.0705 SL 30 TP 90 (Hesitation at 1.0670)
USDCHF: No setup for now
USDCAD: Sell 1.3770 SL 30 TP 85
Gold: Likely to range between 2340 and 2290
Levels discussed on Livestream 12th June12th June (FOMC Decision Pending)
DXY: Could test and reject 105.60 resistance before trading lower (dovish FOMC) down to 105 support.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6170 SL 25 TP 45 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6560 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength)
USDJPY: Look for reaction at 158 resistance
Buy 158.20 SL 40 TP 115 or Sell 157.70 SL 40 TP 115
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2750 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0770 SL 50 TP 120 (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8950 SL 25 TP 55 (DXY weakness)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3795 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY strength)
Gold: wait for a reaction at 2280 support level
