A inverse #HVF appears to be in progress on the #GDX
@TheCryptoSniper
Coincides with a probability that gold has put in a major secular top being pushed down by positive real rate environment.
Short Term Elliott Wave View on GDX suggests that rally to 35.74 ended wave 3 on April 12, 2024. From there, the ETF pullback as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 33.44 and wave (b) ended at 34.35. Wave (c) lower ended at 32.43 which completed wave ((w)). The ETF then rallied in wave ((x)) as as a double three structure in...
Went long here on GDX at 27.40 on this wedge retest. If you look at the weekly chart it appears an inverted head & shoulders is forming. I like this long with a LIS at 26.59, as long as that holds I think we move back towards 30.16 and then 33.
... for a 28.24 debit.
Comments: GDX (IVR/IV 40.8/ 32.9) is at the top of my IV screener for ETF's (along with GDXJ, which has higher IV, but is less liquid).
Buying stock and selling the -71 delta call against, resulting in a max profit potential of .76 ($76)/contract; 2.69% ROC at max; 1.35% at 50% max. That .76 isn't massively compelling, but the ROC is...
... for a 21.01 debit.
Comments: There isn't much that is weak in this market ... . Adding a rung to my GDX position out in August at a strike lower than what I currently have on. (See Posts Below).
.99 max on BPE of 21.01; 4.7% ROC at max; 2.4% at 50% max.
Short Term Elliott Wave view in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests rally from 2.29.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from 2.29.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 30.48 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28.91. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 29.71 and wave (b) ended at...
A quick update on my thoughts on GDX ...
A leading diagonal (1) followed by a flat (2), with wave (2) retracing 0.618 of wave (1)
We should see a wave (3) occurring .....
... for a 26.21 debit.
Comments: 42.2 IV/32.8% 30-day IV. Before I went to take a nap, added a "rung" on weakness here to my position, buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against. I already have a February monied on (See Post Below), so went out to March for this setup.
The call IV at the 27 strike: 37.32%. The put side at the same strike: 29.49% with...
It is time to consider being LONG Gold Miners / SHORT Gold.
The chart speaks for itself. The ratio is not at absolute low however below the low of 2008 and within the low area
There is a 4 years cycle 2008-12-16-20-24 alternating low and high. Final low is expected this year.
After which the ratio will rise up until 2028.
Should 24 be challenged (supported...
Have been tracking Gold and the Gold miners ETF GDX... It has been a while and it appears that Gold and GDX are at least in sync again.
GDX appears to have closed the week above the long term range and just broke out, if not about to...
MACD and VolDiv have not yet crossed over but indications show. The TD Setup is still showing primary bullish and a new Setup is...
... for a 22.83 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 call against a one lot here out in June where I have covered calls at the 29, 27, and now 24 strikes. 1.17 max on BPE of 22.83; 5.12% ROC at max; 2.56% at 50% max.
Going monied CC here in lieu of an equivalently delta'd short put to take advantage of call side IV skew (39.6% on the call side; 29.18% on the put...
Gold miners have shown relative weakness to the metals since topping in 2020, and that looks likely to continue in the near term. However, when this consolidation completes, the mining stocks should once again shine and starts catching up, potentially in the next couple of months.
For this reason, the time has come to keep this group on your watch list as a...
Gold will make new highs in 2024 once the fed pivots. Going into 2028 you will see gold continue to break records. The 2028 election will all be about the defecit and the debt. We won't make it to the 2030's without cutting spending, 100% of all tax receipts will go towards interest on the $46 trillion debt in 2028.
For now, Gold bulls just keep your toes in, if...
ymbol GDX
Open Date 11/9/2023
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 25
Long Strike 24
Price to Open 0.12
Min Width Multiple 2
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 43
1 Day ROI% 0.32%
Max Annual ROI % 115.8%
GDX hit a -2 sig on the weekly timeframe back on Oct 4/5 just like a lot of stuff did.
Pushed up and took out the previous bearish...
