CRM
Date First Found - November 15, 2016
Pattern/Why- breakdown of trend line and up channel, possible earnings play
Entry Target Criteria- break below $73.03
Exit Target Criteria- $57.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $77.37
Indicator Notes- declining Twiggs Money Flow
Special Note- we would consider May $72.50 Puts currently @ $6.25
Next Earnings Release Date-...
Historically when CRM hits this level it drops a minimum of 5.23% and an average drop of 13.21%. Historical support is just south of 67.00 so my conservative play is a drop to at least 67.00. This is the third indicator this week signalling a drop in the very near term. Great PUT plays to be had.
For the second trading day in a row, another historical indicator points to continued decline for CRM. Historically when TSI breaks below this level, the stock drops at least 1.05%, with an average of 2.37%. There are two long term support trendlines and the nearest is around 65.30.
A conservative drop to around 65.75 within the next few weeks is my safer play....
Historically when the RSI for CRM hits this level, the stock drops at least 1%. The more likely figure is 4.82%. A conservative drop continues along one of the many trendlines. My play is a drop of around 3.83%.
This play could bring in 20-41% with perfectly placed PUTs.
Technically Speaking
Salesforce is holding the 100 WMA. A move to the 2016 high print would be about a 12% move.
To the downside, minor support is at 68 with 64 being the key support level, in my view.
Where is the R/R?
For me, this stock is in no-man's land. For a long position I would rather wait for 68 or 64.
Of course, it may never get there, it might...
CRM Salesforce is gone. Even though it is trying to buy Twitter but don't think it will be successful as Goggle and other hungry birds are out there. Even if CRM buys twitter still there stock are sale because it's a falling knife. And if there is a bounce that means more to upload with short side. There are 2 green support lines from 2009. One has around $60 as a...
CRM is currently leveling out around the $73 mark. The past pull back was only to $73. This is a key level of support for the stock. Also, the MACD is curling and could break through. Either way this is a key level. Bounce = Buying opportunity, Drop = wait/selling opportunity
www.trendyprofits.com
One of the many wonderful things about trading short options is "assignment risk," particularly with naked shorts. (You're not subject to this risk if you're long; if you want the stock at your long strike, you have to "exercise" those options, which is a whole different animal). Being aware of this risk and planning for the possibility that you will be assigned...
CRM announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours and minutes of the NY session to take advantage of any volatility crush that occurs post earnings announcement.
Here's the setup, which naturally might have to be tweaked depending on how much CRM moves tomorrow intraday:
March 4th 54/72 Short Strangle
Probability of...
Salesforce is offering a 3R short if the market doesn't have a gap down open.
This is a discretionary short-
Entry: Market
Target: 74.00
Stop: 79.94 (new pivot high and above earnings resistance)
Three things that make this a nice short for me include:
1. The 5/13 MA bearish cross from the high, which has not seen a bullish rebuttal since.
2. Price's rejection...
I saw this way of color coding resistance / support on another trader's chart and thought it looked pretty cool in defining resistance turned new support. Also, we've experienced quite a correction / pullback in the equity market so for me personally if I'm buying dips, I'm buying strength for the most part with a little left to more volatile stocks. Interesting...
