Here's a bullish count for Semi Conductors. I like this count because I'm struggling to see the downside. Of course, the market may shine light on my blindness but until then, I will stick with this bullish count.
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Reached the top channel, expecting the trend to break as early as next week followed by a big sell off. Looks to be following the fractal I identified back in July with some slight adjustments.
Been away overseas for last month or so. back at my trading desk now. Topping pattern on SMH with MACD divergence down. Not huge clarity on double/triple top. grabbed Jan 24th expiration 137.5 and 140 puts at .35c and .56c
I'm not currently short the semis but upon doing some research I found a nice setup thesis. Similar weekly candles. I see the previous time SMH found it's low about 15.7% down from that weekly candle close after 29 days. If you use the same 15% calculation after 28/29 days, it brings you to the 23% fibonacci level at $120.
This is only a theory at this point and...
TRADING ACTIVE
Chart Details
SMH had sell signal on Daily yesterday.
I entered trade but did not post. Waited for trend dots to confirm.
Trend dots confirmed bearish trend very end of day.
Gaps to fill below down to $111.
Weekly RSI trend is about to breakdown.
Daily trend dots confirmed bearish trend.
I will post a Weekly view chart for SMH when trend...
