Alot of chatter about bonds breaking upward.
But I'm thinking there may a short term bounce
on the tlt -
Looking at May 10 $89 - $89.5 - $90 Calls
Lotto contrarian play - Ill see what they do in the morning
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it.
Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
NASDAQ:TLT runs inverse to the 10YTreassury note. The gap just below $85 should be filled when the 10Y goes back to 4.9%. When the gap closes and yields come back down, NASDAQ:TLT will be the place to park your money... NFA.
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
Watching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114.
Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.
TLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart
We have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising.
1 target - 115$
2 target - 121$
3 target - 135$
But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.
... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut...
Nassim Taleb's:
“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.”
He also said:
"The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral...
... for a .28 credit.
Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20.
The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
Comments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August.
July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit
August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit
I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long...
For TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history.
In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will...
TLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent
uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023.
Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time.
Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20.
Relative strength trending correlates with price . I...
Entry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone.
Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea.
Take Profit: Discretionary.
