TLT 1/15/21 target $152.79TLT ishares 20+ year treasury bond is on a slow steady decline going into 2021. My price target for 1/15/21 is $152.79. Good luck and happy trading friends...Shortby Options360Updated 0
TLT - Are negative rates coming next? TLT chart is one of a kind. After reaching the 100% price target in the midst of the COVID crisis back in early March 2020, the bond bulls seemed to have found a major support @ the $158-$159 price level. The major trendline coming from December 08 has had several rejections before its final breakout in mid of July 2020. My next price target is @$198. Also, it is very important to point out the weekly divergence in the RSI which suggests the bulls are back in the game. Given the current economic/political scenario - negative interest rates might be looking closer than ever... Longby Abald02
TLT Key zone to watch.With yield starting to rise and the treasuries selling off I will be watching the 150 zone. If that level is breached the entire market dynamic may change. Typically when money leaves the treasuries it move back into stocks. The question will be which stocks. The first area to watch will be financial sector. Shortby WadeYendall552
Wychoff re accumulation pattern potentially forming. Potentially a falling bullish wedge forming on TLT. The pattern also appears to be playing out a Wychoff re accumulation pattern which makes sense given that there is the largest short position ever on the bond market. All of the banks have been buying bonds and QE is by nature bullish for bonds as the fed are buying up supply. Lots of these shorts will be in at around 160-165 and so a huge short squeeze could be about to happen. Longby tomolovegrove1
TLT Channel Surfing? Wishful Thinking...Still holding onto hope the appetite for bonds is insatiable Thinking I've taken the heat for now...danger danger Maybe it finds support here in this makeshift channel Already long calls Looking for a little life above 158 to add to position for a run back to up channelLongby Tidal_0BX0
TLT - October 18, 2020Economic data shows that banks are buying up bonds when demand falls short. There is record amounts of short interest in 30 year bonds. The FED won't raise the federal funds rate. Bonds will go higher in the short squeeze of the century. Longby UnknownUnicorn1542792114
TLT LONG AND STRONG I think rates are going lower, the U.S. could even possibly try negative rates. In all honesty, it seems more probable than rates going higher (in the short term at least). Simply due to the fact that consumer lending is depreciating at a very rapid rate (especially now when UE benefits have been decreased along with stimulus "talks" resulting in no stimulus ). In a debt based economy consumer lending is what is most important for our financial and monetary system to stay afloat. With no lending.. It makes sense that "they" would drop rates, to encourage lending growth, and increase the value of the bonds all "they" bought. The craziest thing to me is how big the BS of the fed has got in such a short amount of time (added 220 years of debt in 10 months so far... WOW). Not to mention, there is also a historical amount of short interest on the bond market in 2020, especially on TLT. In terms of where we are in the "markets as a whole" .. the only thing that isn't in a bubble is the world reserve currency . I can completely agree that bonds are overbought, but no where near as overbought as the NASDAQ for example. I believe we have at least one more leg in the bond market.. mainly due to the fact that QE removes liquidity, & a historical short float on bonds; as a result, I genuinely do expect a "penny stock" like short squeeze in the very near future in the bond market. As the bond king would say, We are about to go "suborbital" GL! Longby UnknownUnicorn7567260220
TLTLooking for something like this to unfold heading into elections USA. The orange line is 10 yr Tbonds yields. So they inverse each other. When yields rise so do stocks and exactly the opposite when yields fall. Thinking a nice long set up on TLT options will be presented very soon maybe end Oct. by Big_Mike7160
TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as SHORT because short-term I expect more losses before reversal (BULLS) at 150/155. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: TLT D1 market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: accumulation in progress right now ::: expecting more short term losses ::: going into US Election Day ::: HOWEVER buying LOW is THE BEST ::: INVESTMENT into US Election Day ::: 150/155 best reload zone BULLS ::: BULLS should get ready to BUY LOW ::: from range lows / premium level ::: we are setting up for 15%+ PUMP ::: it's a slow process into US election ::: currently stay out / wait for better price ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9/Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/downside ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/15% GAINSShortby ProjectSyndicate2216
TLT long, In Demand ZoneAt bottom of sideways; Entry 160 -- In Demand Zone Stop 157 Target 170; reward:risk=3:1 Target 179; reward:risk=6:1 I am not a PRO trader. I need few months to practice trading strategies. If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate. Longby PlanTradePlanMMUpdated 333
TLTHit the 200 day with good volume. Good for a tradeable bounce up to the 20 at least?Longby Essendy0
OPENING (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 160/170/172 JADE LIZARD... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max risk of the call side by .64, so I could still make money if that happens. Will look to take profit at 50% max.by NaughtyPinesUpdated 226
TRADE IDEA: TLT SHORT CALL DIAGONALWith (a) the Federal Reserve telegraphing "lower for longer," but (b) not much lower, given the practical limitations of cutting rates from here; (c) overhead resistance at ~172.50; and (d) the fact that the Fed interest rates will hike rates (modestly or otherwise) "at some point" going forward, I'm looking to short the 20 year + maturity treasury exchange-traded-fund TLT, preferably on strength back toward the 172.50 level. While I can naturally take a short position via covered put, short via short call vertical, long put vertical, or long put diagonal,* my preference is for a setup that will give me some flexibility to roll short options out for additional time and credit if my timing is off and/or I want to re-up with a short option out in time after a given leg is pulled off at or near worthless. Consequently, I'm opting for a short call diagonal here with a slight twist: laddering out the short calls and buying fairly cheap longs equal to the number of contracts in my ladder. Here, the back month longs are going for .30 a pop, so I'm giving up some credit to define risk and/or make it "street legal" in a cash secured environment, where most brokers won't allow you to sell naked shorts, and for cheaper than I could potentially do a covered put. That being said, this setup isn't "cheap": buying power effect: 96.10; max profit on fill: 2.97, which is 3.09% ROC, assuming everything expires worthless, and I don't re-up any short legs. Naturally, the ROC%-age will be better if everything expires worthless, and I can re-up with the short call a couple of additional times. The November short call's paying 1.06; the December, 1.34; and the January, 1.47, so it's conceivable I could milk another 2.00 in credit out of the thing for around 5.00 total over the life of the setup, assuming I don't have to roll broken calls out in time. Alternatives: (a) Buy the January 21st '22 160P (b) Sell the January 21st '22 160C ... for a 3.25 credit at the mid price. This creates a static -100 delta short position. (c) Sell the November 20th 159P ... for a 2.06 credit. Manage like a covered put, but without being in the stock. This setup should be way cheaper to get into, at least on margin; it's likely a prohibited setup in a cash secured environment for most brokers. * -- The long put diagonal is generally my go-to when I want to take a short position, but want time for it to work out or to reduce cost basis over time. Unfortunately, long-dated back month high delta long puts were unsatisfactorily illiquid to do this, although maybe I'll have better luck pricing things out during live market hours. Shortby NaughtyPines554
UPDATE (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 165 COVERED CALLSLast update/refresh of existing positions before I move on to new trades ... . Here, an "about as simple as it gets" covered call setup in my IRA in 20 year maturity + treasuries with a current yield of 1.64% and paid .19014/share in June (around $19 per one lot) versus a 30-days 'til expiry, one standard deviation short call premium of .78 (currently the September 25th 172 short call), just to give you some idea of what aspect of the setup is paying. My last acquisition was around $110/share, and I'm inclined to take my money and run at historic interest rate lows, since I think that these have a practical upper bound and will necessarily decline in price when the Federal Reserve gets around to unwinding some of its pandemic-related easing (which is a "who knows when" sort of thing). Previously, to accommodate some of the downside risk, I overwrote calls using call diagonals (See Post Below) and may do so again here while I ponder whether the buying power tied up in this position is "worth it" for the dividends and/or the short call premium. As a function of stock price, the .19 dividend plus the .78 30-day risk premium for one standard deviation calls is .59% of the underlying price (7.02% annualized) versus the 30-days 'til expiry one standard deviation short put currently paying .60 (.36% of the stock price, 4.34% annualized), so there is some advantage to staying in covered call versus selling out-of-the-money puts from a bang for your buck perspective, particularly since this is a cash secured environment. That being said, overwriting can be somewhat buying power intensive and can lead to some headaches managing the additional calls if price rapidly gets away from you to the upside.by NaughtyPinesUpdated 2
TLT Complex (W), (X) , (Y) pattern On the Daily time frame, TLT in a complex (W), (X), (Y) measured move targeting the 175-180 level. Looking to close out all longs on TLT into 175-177 range. Longby wallstreetsharks2
TLT Complex (W), (X) , (Y) pattern On the Daily time frame, TLT in a complex (W), (X), (Y) measured move targeting the 175-180 level. Looking to close out all longs on TLT into 175-177 range. Longby wallstreetsharks2
TLT LONG9/21/20 bonds and yields have one more leg up before the world loses faith in both the treasury and fed. potentially as high as 198+ highest speculative short positions on TLT in 2020 as well Longby UnknownUnicorn7567260223
Iron TariHi guys! This is a new iron condor, as you see for the green histogram there are no probability on the screen. This is because under these circumstances, 2weeks 4% strike, we never had a loss. Sure the premium is not that much, but we like it! Enjoy your wallet! Tari.by TARITRADEUpdated 0
Cup and HandleTrying to break out Stop under C NV is high Top 10 Holdings United States Treasury Bonds 3%5.12% United States Treasury Bonds 2.5%5.10% United States Treasury Bonds 2.88%4.99% United States Treasury Bonds 3.13%5.17% United States Treasury Bonds 2.75% Not a recommendationLongby lauralea0