CL1! PULLBACK After EIA Refinery data release , Crude Jump to $94 -$95 , expect pullback retestShortby Yforex123117
Negative Correlation Between WTI and Consumer SentimentNeed to do some more work on this, but was mentioned to me about the negative correlation between WTI and Consumer Sentiment. Not trading recommendations or advice. I am posting this to open up for discussion the possible correlations/relationship between the two. by LonnieMSP0
Oil touching the top of its current zone. ITs been a while since i wrote about Oil, but watching the current price action makes me smile. The west is losing the commodity price battle with OPEC+. You can reference my past posts, but $94 has been my call for some time now. In my opinion its a key resistance level, and if it passes this into the new zone, we will see alot of volitivity a and rapid inter-day swings. Traditionally Oil has had a self-defeating relationship with high prices, but i feel we may see something deferent this time. In the mature western economies we see demand tapper, but with the developing world, especially Africa consuming more energy on their way out of poverty, the price may prove to be resilient. Obviously production cuts help, but the world is never a clear glass window for all to see what is happening. Its more like the teenager upstairs in their bedroom blaring loud music, you know somethings going on up there, but you just cant make out exactly what... hopefully the world isnt blowing the pot smoke out the window while mom and dad cook supper downstairs... As always, do you homework! Invest at your own risk, and have fun!by caugfour1
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari114
CRUDE OIL FUTURES, EXTENSIVE Bear-Flag, BEAR-MARKET Wave-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new Price-Action Analysis about the CRUDE OIL FUTURES on the 2-day timeframe perspective. In the recent times CRUDE OIL FUTURES prices on the more short-term-perspectives at a measurement of the 1-hour to 4-hour timeframe perspective have climbed higher and made some new local highs on the local timeframe-perspectives. These local bullish developments, however, do not necessarily speak for the overall trend-direction and the bigger picture, therefore it is also necessary to consider the higher timeframe perspectives. As inflation is cooling down this also has an effect on some commodities and sector energy-prices as supply rises and demand keeps static this dynamic normally indicates a drop in prices such as has been developed for CRUDE OIL FUTURES since the demand shock last year in March 2022 pushed the prices to astronomic levels where supply entered the market. With this initial bearish momentum established the only dynamic that can elevated the prices to new hights and start a sustained bull-run is when production cuts fall to such a level that the remaining demand (which decreases more and more) can lead to such an demand extension that the demand prevails the supply dynamic with an factor with at least 5-to-1, meaning there is five times higher demand than supply in the market. Currently, this dynamic is not realistic as demand seems to decrease further, therefore the bearish dynamic should be considered primarily from the fundamental perspective. The technical perspective offers a similar edge to the bearish dynamic as seen in my chart the CRUDE OIL FUTURES established a continued downtrend since the highs in March of 2022 and the lower high that followed these highs of the demand shock actually marking the origin of the current bearish downtrend in which the CRUDE OIL FUTURES still remain. Within this prevailing downtrend the price-action is now forming a crucial bear-flag-formation between the 65 to 87.5 level. Within this bear-flag-formation the price-action is also forming a coherent wave-count from A to C with the final wave-C now about to complete and move into the main resistance-cluster within this whole bear-flag-formation. This resistance-cluster is consisting of the descending-resistance-line, the upper-boundary of the bear-flag-formation, the local horizontal-resistance, and the completion of the final wave-C within the bear-flag-formation wave-count. This means once the prices reached the resistance cluster there is a possibility of nearly 100% that from there on a pullback to the downside is likely to happen which will setup the whole wave-C of the major wave-count consisting of the waves A, B, and C. Once this pullback has been emerged the whole bear-flag-formation will be completed with a breakout below the lower boundary of the formation from where the extended wave-C will have it´s origins. In this case prices will likely drop further below the 60 level and beyond. Taking all these factors into the consideration here it will be a highly crucial dynamic for CRUDE OIL FUTURES to emerge within the next times. Especially as the demand in the market seems to not support a continued bull-run this fact combined with the technicals are likely to support the completion of the bear-flag and in this case a protracted bearish wave to setup. Once the whole bear-flag-formation has been completed this will activate the bear-flag target-zones as marked in my chart and depending on the momentum it will be a question on how fast these targets will be reached. Considering a steep momentum there is a high likelihood given that these targets will be reached quite fast and a final destination to reach the targets by the end of 2023 will be highly likely once the bearish momentum is peaking. The question will be if with a drop in the prices the demand for CRUDE OIL FUTURES will rise to such a level to set-up and consistent reversal from where a new bull-dynamic can start that exceeds previous highs. Therefore, once the prices reach the target-zones and the prices bounce heavily in these zones this will be an indication that demand actually increased to such a high level that an new bullish wave-origin can start from this point with which prices have the ability to bounce above the 90 area again and from there on continue. This dynamic however needs to be confirmed once the final bear-flag-target-zones have been reached because for now the prevailing bearish scenario is the primary scenario to watch out with this whole dynamic and the final confirmation of the bear-flag-formation will be the setup to confirm the next major wave-C of the whole bearish wave-count to approach the determined target-zones. Thank you everybody for watching. Support is greatly appreciated and then let´s move on forward together. VPby VincePrinceUpdated 111128
Crude Oil Short OpportunityI posted a lot about Crude Oil on my Website and also on YT. The first short was nice success. Now we get the chance to do it again "Sam" §8-) This current test of the L-MLH of the white Fork was brutal. The squeeze is similar to the one of the 23rd of September. Just a little smaller, but more vicious. As for a Stop, I think it needs top be at least above P2. This gives us a Risk to Reward > 3, if price can tank down to P3, at the L-MLH of the red Pitchfork. As always, play it small in these vertical markets. Don't try to be a Hero. Just protect your Capital. All the best Tr8dingN3rds §8-)Shortby Tr8dingN3rdUpdated 0
MCL - Crude Oil on the RiseThe trend continues for Crude Oil. Will it hit $94? Price is above the 50 and 200 daily EMAs. There are Oil Company stocks that may be impacted also. What out for news but the technical are leaning bullish.Longby PortfolioBuildersClub0
The Wiseguy Report - WTI Crude Oil - 9/22/23NEAR TERM :: NEUTRAL VOLUME STRUCTURE - NYMEX:CLX2023 So far, for the month of September, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $89 & $91.75, with the highest volume around $91. PRICE ACTION WTI strongly rejected prices above $92 & failed to make a subsequent new high. A FEW FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS - Seasonal Demand Destruction (winter) - China economy showing weakness - Continued USD strength & therefore expensive Petrodollar - FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, which supports a strong USD for now. - OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5by WiseguyFuturesUpdated 0
Oil Price Vulnerable as RSI Sell Signal MaterializesThe price of oil consolidates after registering a fresh yearly high ($92.43) last week, but the move below 70 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may accompany a near-term pullback in crude to mirror the price action from earlier this year. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil is little changed from the start of the week as it bounces back from a fresh weekly low ($88.19), and crude may stage further attempts to test the November 2022 high ($93.74) high as it seems to be tracking the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($83.29). However, the price of oil may fall towards the $86.60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region as the RSI continues to hold below overbought territory, with a breach below the moving average bringing the $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar. by FOREXcom0
Natural Gas price drop offsets CrudeWith everyone in the general media chirping about the rise in crude oil this year, I can't help but wonder why there isn't a massive wave of good news about how "low natural gas prices are". We all know the media loves to get attention and fear, uncertainty and anger work much more effectively at capturing the ears of a weary audience. Wouldn't it make sense to be happy in the knowledge that the US produces excess amounts of natural gas that it has enough to turn into LNG and ship overseas. I am not an environmental expert, so please don't attack me for the dangers of fracking and the pollution of groundwater, etc. Clearly, there are costs to having electricity, warmth and power to run machines that make our lives easier and better. Either way, if both NatGas and Crude are 3% of our economy (+/- from data from 2021), then we can see that this isn't "inflationary" at all since crude is down MORE than crude oil is up. Yet, every time I hear on Bloomberg TV that crude oil is causing massive inflation it makes me cringe because it doesn't match how I am looking at the world. Good luck navigating the markets. Cheers, Tim West. 10:59AM EST Sep 26, 2023by timwestUpdated 6623
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari4
Oil to $84/bblBased on the idea of liquidity seeking; the orange box represents the 50% retracement, the top of the previous order block, and the Fair Value Gap region. I am short CL unless it breaks above the previous day's high. I'll consider a long if the setup materializes at $84.by DarthTrader1357110
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)by sepehrqanbari4
CL1!Before recession oil always rise and fall after it get started 1 target 130$-150$ then we will see pullback lower 60$, possibly 40$ expect to see next recession in next 6-9 monthsLongby bohdanpolishchuk1
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari4
CL - Crude Oil Bold CallOh my..I think something big is on the way. Let's first look at what we see on the chart: It's a long-term chart, where each candlestick represents 3 months. Why did I take 3 months? Because I wanted to see the big picture. Look at the red frame. This is a daily chart, and with all the candles going up and down like a rollercoaster, it's messy and will keep you up all night. The yellow chart is the same, but here I have only taken the swings and hidden the bars. And that's real peace of mind. It's clean and shows you where the real pivots are. Let's go to the main chart. The pitchfork goes back to the low we had in the 80s. This is the anchor for the A point. Then the top for B and the negative for C. Do you see how the middle line catches the resistance and the support? What else? It's clean too. Going up in the time frame hides the noise. From now on, the last 3 candles also have support at the centre line. And if I apply Human-AI-Pattern-Recognition (...what a word ;-), then I see a potential huge run-up towards the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). Another fact that supports this thesis is that the USD has the potential to fall (see DXY analysis). And of course there will be other economic influences that will throw "oil" into the fire... kinda weird §8-) However, as we can never have the whole cake and eat it too quickly without the cook cutting off our fingers, we have to wait for the first break of the last swing high, which can be clearly seen in the yellow frame. Or we can start building a position now, taking on more risk but being rewarded with huge upside potential over the next few years. However, my position with this analysis will be very long term. How will I play it? I don't know yet, but I'm considering building a CL monster with Black Magic Options Voodoo §8-) Hope this helps and have a relaxing weekend.Longby Tr8dingN3rdUpdated 117
Crude Oil Shows Potential Signs of ToppingCrude oil has been running since early summer, but there may be signs of a top. The first pattern on today’s chart is the “shooting star” candlestick on Tuesday. Prices climbed to their highest level of the year before reversing lower. They dropped further on Wednesday, confirming the potentially bearish reversal pattern. Second, CL1! has been at the top of its Keltner Channel. A potential reversion down the range could imply a drop of about 10 percent. Third, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dipping from its most overbought condition since March 2022. Fourth, Rate of Change made a lower high this week as price made a higher high. That kind of bearish divergence often precedes reversals lower. Finally, these patterns have occurred below the 93.50 area where crude oil had a double top in October and November 2022. That may suggest its longer-term trend has failed to become truly bullish. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .by TradeStation15
Is crude oil about to take a dive? 📉 The Crude Oil short I mentioned has set up today on the daily chart 📉 I am long CL 91.00 Puts and have also taken some Event Contracts for today to close below 90.50 and 90.00. The setup originated from yesterday's close and the resistance level is now at 90.37. CL1! To guide my decision-making, I'll be using the 5-day moving average, which currently stands at 90.27 📊 This setup involves using options, event contracts, and intra-day shorting with futures. If the daily close goes above 90.27, I'll scale back, and if we surpass the recent high of 92.43, I'll exit the position ❌ My target area is 85.10 🎯, and I'll start scaling out of shorts when we drop below 88.00 ⬇️ Given the upward trend, I prefer scaling out in front of targets when there's a mean reversion trade.Shortby anthonycrudele9
CRUDE OIL LONG-TERMPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) Longby sepehrqanbari2
WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance...WTI Oil Prices Face Selling Pressure as Fed's Hawkish Stance Dominates Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are grappling with selling pressure, hovering around the $88.80 mark. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting and its hawkish stance have cast a shadow over oil prices, complicating the outlook for the energy market. Here are the key factors influencing WTI oil prices: 1. Fed's Influence on Oil Prices: Following the Federal Reserve's recent meeting, WTI oil prices experienced a continuation of selling pressure. The Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged and issued hawkish comments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target and expressed readiness to raise rates if deemed necessary. The prospect of higher interest rates in the US has a direct impact on oil prices. Elevated interest rates can raise borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand. 2. Saudi Arabia's Stance on Oil Production: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman clarified that OPEC's decision to reduce oil production was primarily motivated by a desire for market stability and not aimed at supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine. In recent weeks, both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's top two oil exporters, announced voluntary production cuts. These measures have played a role in supporting WTI prices, with both countries committing to sustaining reduced oil output until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia is set to limit its oil production to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day through the end of 2023. 3. Crude Oil Inventory Reports: Crude oil inventory reports have also influenced market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant decline of nearly 5.25 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 15. This contrasted with the previous reading, which showed a rise of 1.174 million barrels. Market expectations had been leaning towards a 2.7 million-barrel decline. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 2.135 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles during the same period, compared to a previous increase of 3.954 million barrels. The market had anticipated a drawdown of 2.2 million barrels. 4. Upcoming Economic Data Impact: Looking ahead, oil traders are closely monitoring several economic data releases that could significantly influence WTI prices. These include the US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, all scheduled for release later on Thursday. Furthermore, the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for September is expected to be released on Friday. These events will be of particular interest to traders as they could impact the USD-denominated WTI price. In conclusion, WTI oil prices are currently navigating a complex landscape, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and global oil production dynamics playing key roles. The energy market will closely follow economic data releases for insights into the future direction of oil prices, offering trading opportunities for investors. Longby FOREXN112129
CRUDEOILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Shortby sepehrqanbari2
Oil - some weakness ahead?This Elliott Wave count suggests that oil's rally may be due a rest and a period of weakness may now take place. From an EW point of view it has some alternation in it's 2nd and 4th wave corrections between deep and shallow. The 3rd wave ended exactly to the 1.61 fib extension and the 5th wave completed on the .61 fib extension of waves 1 to 3. It also completed on the top of the channel. Perfect Elliott Wave? Lots going for the count so lets see how wrong I am....Shortby tomj24170