Crude Oil (WTI)This looks like it is poised to head back into a well established $70-$80 range (and then some!). Anticipated long-term USD strength, as well as extended Global economic weakness bodes well for an enduring price weakness outlook. Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation. The Daily (main signal); SHORT on any reversal! ... and the 240 min. (secondary signal); by Nemo_ConfidatUpdated 227
Risky long setup 10:1Long on 5min time frame. Big volume on low TP to PoC 30min volumeLongby trendtom220
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading Longby LionHart_Trading2
Crude Oil: Ongoing Elliott Wave Corrective Drop Can Be DeeperCrude oil has been on the rise over the last view weeks, which is the main reason why inflation is still the main global problem, so we have seen some positive correlation between dollar and crude as speculators believe that rates will stay here higher for longer. Well, what’s interesting now is that after that after a lot of crude oil bull calls for 100 dollar and higher, the energy is turning south. Looking at the current intraday drop, we can see some sharp move down now, it looks like an ongoing intraday impulse with room for more weakness after Crude inventory data shows decline of 2.2 million barrels last week. From an Elliott wave perspective that’s going impulse for wave A, so more weakness can be seen after subwave iv rally, or even after wave B bounce. Resistance is at 86.75 and 88.30. In fact, lower energy can also mean that inflation can slow down, and this can then at some point puts limited upside for the USD and yields. GregaShortby ew-forecast4
OIL: $21 <--- -$40.32it is what it is. the points from the peak to Zero is enough to cover the shorts at unthinkable LOWSSby senyorUpdated 7
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)by sepehrqanbari4
CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 4-Oct-2023TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT; as indicated by the downward trendline and the market structure. KEY LEVEL: Round numbers S&R with 50 ticks range between each level. TRIGGER SIGNAL: 4 bearish reversal candles RR: 1:2 SL: 74 Ticks TP: 150 TicksShortby TheDemonTrader0
Sell shortly CL but use small Lots and contratsToday CL mraket is down but use small contrats. We are a break a support but now CL is falling.Shortby philippebrou19870
Crude Oil : Possible Head and Shoulder If the price of crude oil respects weekly pivot points, there is a high probability that it will form a head and shoulder pattern in next few days. If confirmed the target will be around $80 or belowShortby spranav0
Oil Price Pullback to Face Positive Slope in 50-Day SMAThe price of oil carves a series of lower highs and lows as it continues to pullback from the yearly high (95.03), but crude may attempt to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($84.74) as it holds above the moving average. Crude Oil Outlook The price of oil appears to have reversed ahead of the August 2022 high ($98.65) as it slips to a fresh weekly low ($87.76), with a break/close below the $86.60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raising the scope for a test of the moving average. Next area of interest comes in around $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), but crude may track the positive slope in the moving average if it continues to hold above the $86.60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region. Need a move above the $93.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $93.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone to bring the yearly high ($95.03) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $100.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). by FOREXcom4
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)by sepehrqanbari2
WTI is goin to test 84.5$ levelWTI oil is going to test 84.5$ level while Dollar is going green, probably it’s will go down more than this level. we will wait to see price move after test the level. Wish you best tradesShortby Trader_Manager227
Crude Oil Head and Shoulder SellingCrude Oil Now formed and broken, Head and Shoulder for selling target mentioned in chart and conservative entry can go in retesting range 7430Shortby Arunvfx08Updated 19
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;) by sepehrqanbari4
Crude Oil Could Decline to 60.00A very important Crude Oil top may have been made on 09/28/23. These are the factors. 1) Completed Elliott wave - Inverse Expanding Flat. 2) Bearish divergences on RSI and MACD. 3) Peak on 09/28/23 hit rising trendline. 4) Top one day before Full Moon on 09/29/23. 5) Bearish seasonal patterns until late December There’s potential for Crude Oil to drop to the low 60.00 area by late 2023. Shortby markrivest11
DRIDR free scripthere is a breakdown on how I use the ash system along with DR. ATM vibes08:01by vybztrading110
The Wiseguy Report - Crude Oil 2023NYMEX:CLX2023 NEAR TERM :: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH VOLUME STRUCTURE - CLX23 So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance. PRICE ACTION - CLX23 WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95. This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance. OPEN INTEREST - CLX23 Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT) - CLX23 This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, last week's commitments will be published shortly today. I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators. FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS - CLX23 - Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter) - China economy showing weakness - Global economy showing weakness - Less travel demand - High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market - Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar - FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD. - OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5 I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUNT $91, THE RPICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE. EXPECT MORE SOON. THANK YOU.by WiseguyFutures0
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari7
Are we seeing a local top in energy? How to tellThe same information that signaled that we were ready for an opportunity in energy is giving a warning that we may be near a local top. If you've been in the current oil/energy trade since the breakout this summer, you're doing well. Our largest risk to this opportunity is that it is driven by political restrictions to supply and that these decisions can change without notice. While I believe that we have a multi year bull run in energy in front of us, the journey will be volatile which makes a discipline of taking profits and reaccumulating an important part of building and protecting wealth. We can use several data points to understand where we are in the trend and whether we are close to a reversal. Let's look at these signals, beginning with least responsive and ending with most responsive: Energy vs gold Relative strength and market sentiment CAD/JPY Leading/lagging relationship with other oils 1. Macro tops and bottoms - XLE+XOP/Gold We can identify macro tops of the energy market when AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP are making highs while gold divided by oil bottoms (<=18). This will be closely followed by a correlation coefficient between XLE+XOP and gold/oil peaking and likely greater than 0. The beginning of 2021 gave the strongest signal. This is currently on a path toward a local peak. Conversely, we can identify macro bottoms in the energy market when gold/oil is peaking (>=30) while XLE+XOP are making lower lows. As this trend concludes the correlation coefficient between XLE+XOP and gold/oil should be close to -1. The most recent signal for a low was mid-March 2023. 2. Relative strength A Heikin Ashi of ( AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP )/ NASDAQ:QQQ helps us to understand whether the market is shifting between large cap and tech versus the energy trade. This will be signaled by reclaiming the 50SMA and holding the 50EMA as support. The trend remains strong while above the 200SMA and a series of (4 or more weekly) consecutive red Heikin Ashis with a move below the 50EMA will tell us that the trend has reversed. Note the 5-period relative strength of this trend versus the DJI (red) and the 35 period relative strength vs the DJI (green) will both be positive. MACD is an additional supporting visual. 3. CAD/JPY Canada is a large exporter of oil and Japan is a large importer of oil. When oil is in high demand the FX:CADJPY forex pair will trend upward. We can use Heikin Ashi candles again for a better perspective of a shift in trend. Note that the DeMarker and RSI give a number of false signals, so we want to use the 50 and 100 day SMA's rolling over and ADX peak in conjunction with them to confirm reversals. These still show expansion. 4. Leading and confirming (most responsive) While they have different purposes, different types of oil move in correlation with one another. Oil NYMEX:CL1! - After holding the green VWAP anchored to the covid lows as support, oil broke out from the teal descending trend line on 7/7 and tested the yellow 200SMA on 7/13, then reclaimed it as support on 7/21. Note the blue and red VWAPs anchored to the 2022 highs as these will be important areas of support going forward. Soybean oil CBOT:ZL1! - Leading signal. The move in oil was preceded by soybean oil which broke out of its descending trend line in June, tested the 200SMA on 7/3, and reclaimed it on 7/19. The most favorable signal for the energy trend would be for ZL to remain above ~$58. A move below ~54 could signal a reversal for oils. Note that ADX is moving into a normal range during this drawdown. Heating oil ICEEUR:UHO1! - Confirmation. The move in oil was followed by heating oil. UHO has more of a rounded bottom below its descending trend line. It moved above the descending trend line on 7/7, but doesn’t reclaim its 200SMA until 7/28. Support at ~3.20 will give a stronger warning of a shift in trend (alignment to VWAP from April 2022 high), with failure of ~$2.90 giving the most concern (where price reclaimed the 200SMA). Note ADX showing signs of exhausted trend. by Ben_1148x2112