Macy's Bullish BetLooks like Macy's is ready to go up: 1) Price broke above 200 EMA, and holding above it; 2) Down trend line broken; 3) RSI finding support at 50% First Target 27$ - 27.80$ area, if broken next target 30.25 Stop Level 2 days close below 23.70$ or a 2% break below it ( 23.22$)Longby EliarichUpdated 1
THE WEEK AHEAD: M, BBY, OIH, VIXEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT/VOL CONTRACTION PLAYS: M announces earnings on 2/27 before market open. Preliminarily, the March 24/30 short strangle is paying .84 at the mid, which isn't very juicy. Given the size of the underlying, it may be more amenable to a short straddle or iron fly, with the March 9th 27 short straddle paying 2.95 and the 23/27/27/31 iron fly paying 2.13 with the longs camped out around the 16 delta strikes. I would shoot for 25% max profit or .74 in the case of the short straddle; .54 for the fly. BBY announces on the 1st of March before market open. The March 9th 20-delta 66.5/81 short strangle is paying 2.05 at the mid, with the defined risk variant 63.5/66.5/81/84 iron condor paying just a smidge short of one-third the width of the wings -- .92/contract. HIGH IMPLIED VOLATILITY EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: The exchange-traded funds screened for percentile greater than 70% and ranked by percentile are IYR (background 20%); XLI (background 20%); FXI (background 26%); EEM (background 22%); and XLU (background 18%). Ranked by background implied: GDXJ (33%; 33rd percentile); XOP (32%; 64th percentile); OIH (32%; 80th percentile); GDX (28%; 42nd percentile); and EWZ (28%; 19th percentile). Generally speaking, I like to pull the trigger on a premium selling trade when the percentile is greater than 70% and the background implied is greater than 35%, so I would pull the trigger on an OIH setup here, even though it's slightly short of that 35% background metric. Here are a couple of possible plays: Neutral Assumption/Undefined: OIH April 20th 25 short straddle Probability of Profit: 54% Max Profit: $224/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Evens: 22.76/27.24 Notes: Look to take profit at 25% max or .25 x 2.24 or .56/contract. Intratrade defenses: roll of untested side toward current price, delta hedging. Neutral Assumption/Defined: OIH April 20th 22/25/25/28 iron fly Probability of Profit: 44% Max Profit: $176/contract Max Loss: $122/contract Break Evens: 23.22/26.78 Notes: As with the short straddle, look to take profit at 25% max or .25 x 1.76 or .44/contract. Intratrade defenses: Delta hedging. THE VIX After this recent pop, I'm still watching the VIX and VIX futures term structure to return to its ordinary "contango look." While the structure has returned to contango if you look at the March, April, and May expiries, May is in backwardation relative to June, June in contango relative to July, July in backwardation relative to August, with the remainder of the structure in contango. by NaughtyPines4
Trade Idea Of The Week MACYS INC (M)Forgot to post this yesterday, but we have been in this trade since Friday with some puts trying to ride this market during this large pullback. I am still going to post this because even with this bounce today I still think it has more room to fall. Last week there was a huge turning point in momentum and the selling volume started to pick up. With the signs of the overall market weakening we decided to go bearish. We will ride this trade until the short term trend is broken on the 15minute/30minute candles. Best of luck!Shortby StrengthTradingUpdated 222
Selling Macy's due to runup in all stocks... Profit taking... I think there is big drop coming in all stocks... indices are topped off ... ready for a spill overby mazdaki1
M swing trade?Good volume and strong lower wicks right on top of huge support. This could make the case of a nice swing trade in the making. If it breaks the lower wicks ride it down hard people in trap city.. If it shows any sign of strength let it ride. by carley6210
Fib RetraceM, two large red candles formed following an upswing, needs to relax a bit, still learning Price Target: 21.70 Stop Loss: 24.90 TimeFrame: 2nd of FebShortby Dem456Updated 0
M long if 25 holds or short below 24.50M right by a critical decision point so this could be interesting.by wave3trading3
M could be a short if it can sustain above the 200 EMA lineM is hitting both the resistance line and 200 EMA line so a lot of resistance. If it can not stay above the 200 EMA line, it could be a good short.Shortby wave3trading1
Brick and mortar stores are all oversold... It is time to buyI'm starting with Macy's the technical are turning around... my own personal experience with their app and purchase was superb in the last couple of days... they will do well in the long run if they are not bought out by online retailer... I have a feeling that many brick and mortar stores will be taken over by high growth low margin online outfits like amazon... Longby mazdakiUpdated 3
Macy's- EarningsMacy's earnings report will probably be disappointing like most retailers this year. Looking to short.by jadotscottUpdated 2
Time to think about Macy's 1) the aim of deep correction is completed 2) bullish divergence, 3) oversold by RSI such kind of signal were at 2008-11-03. Currently we can see the 1 growth wave is completed at 73.77$. I confident that it was the first wave because it was started from historical min price 5.07$ I think for starting to buy near 19.69$, since gap should be closed. Probably it can be the bottom and I do not expect significant going down of price. Actually I've started form a position near 20.78$ - about 20% of plan. I will buy more when bearish signal will be worked out, I guess it should happened near 19.69$. Where I will buy additional 20% of plan. If the double top (fig.3) will be realized the target of going down is 15$. If you are do not tolerant to risky, additional buy could be done by 10% of plan after 7%-10% of going down the price. But this going down of price will be in negative scenario only. Also you can wait for confirmation for reversal of down trend. Target price of 3th growth wave is above 73.61$. For achieving that price several years can be required. The growth of the first global wave is being during about 6.5 years.Longby DenInvestUpdated 5