UPDATE 5/5: Stopped out on both positions. Result: -2R
Two entries:
1. Buy limit half of 26/03 pin bar, s/l under horizontal support, t/p around highs on monthly chart, R:R 3,5:1
2. Buy stop top of 26/03 pin bar, s/l under horizontal support, t/p around highs on monthly chart, R:R 2:1
Let the euro QE roll...
Watch-out España traders, the IBEX is challenging the major key long term sideways resistance or ceiling. Typically, in sideways markets, we expect price to reverse to the downside. However, this time might be different, as the price test the level for sixth time. The latest test(March 2) was followed by a minor pullback and a bullish pin bar.
I would think...
If the QE was meant to help peripherals, so far it s not working as planned (for Spain at least).
I keep this one on the radar - It is not driving but is a good metric to see if the plan is working or not.
The European QE is pending - It is largely in the media for a long while now.
I doubt equities would be trading where they are if they expected something great to come (this is speculative, i acknowledge).
IBEX is on a cliff that rejected up twice in weekly close...
The third attempt down may break the elastic this time and there is 25% free fall zone.
In any...
After a few channels are drawn, i though i see a potential right shoulder forming.
And the potential neckline is the channel support. Whatever it is, since Nov 2007 market top, the price has been in the current downtrend channel. The channel resistance at Aug 2014 makes the channel very very well.
I will set this chart on neutral because it isn't a trade signal. The daily chart gives me a buy signal (), like all other major european markets, but the weekly has a beautiful bearish picture at 11000, which is the most important area in this chart.
If the daily will give me a selling signal, I will short this, if not, well... I think it is due for a pullback...
Second rejection at the same area, after gun the shorts first - including mine- at 10,500.
Another try at 0.764 from 2010 highs to June 2012 lows, upper BB boundary again, and the same diverging momentum, produced a BE weekly candle, just like the one we saw at the end of January.
If will continue down or not, its up to the Blood Moon I guess. Strong support at...
Friends,
Back on January 24th, we forecast a potential bearish target with a "far-fetched" qualifier, although we also provided two other prior examples where that proprietary geometric pattern unfolded - See this chart, as well as examples in the USDollar index and AUDUSD here:
CHANGE IN DIRECTION:
At this point though, we have to change our directional...
Here is a new target release for the IBEX35, eyeing 7791, setting the target quite low. Last time we made such a far-fetched predictive analysis, we hit the USDollar index on the nose (see that analysis here: on.fb.me). Also, another far-fetched call was on the #AUDUSD, where we gorged on 643 pips (see that analysis here: on.fb.me).
So, let's see whether we can...
Waiting for a small correction 'till circled zone to entry long.
Lots of positive confluences in there: MM200, previous resistance, channel resistance.
Goal: Next top channel testing. Around 9800.
First i wan't to state that, as labeled in the chart, it's all about the monday open!
The ideea of the 5 wave formation came to me a few months ago It went beatifully. Now we have a possible abc, i say possible because we have to see if it will rally.
Now let's take an indepth look at the chart. The first wave starts from the bottom line of the broadening...
DO or DIE! Good indicator for short term market direction. If Spanish banks (look at SAN) can survive these days with no bigger corrections, EWP is already at attractive 4th wave EW levels.
Spain's Ibex 35 is looking like it's starting a correction. The Williams%R gave a sell signal by breaking 20. Also, from previous high to current high there was a turn window using Lucas Series #'s. There is another Lucas Series # from June 2012 low to current highs that is signaling a turn window. With two turn windows pointing to the same area, the Ibex reached...
All 4xQuad forecast targets (TG-1 = 9465 and TG-2 = 9527) have been hit dead-on (See our Dead-On Hit List here: bit.ly)
At this point, 4xQuad is signaling a significant resistance level valued at 9711
David Alcindor
Head Trader
4xQuad, LLC
Denver, CO
USA
