S&P 500 Analysis: Good News is Bad NewsS&P 500 Analysis: Good News is Bad News Yesterday, S&P Global reported its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) values for the US, which exceeded expectations. According to ForexFactory: → Manufacturing PMI: actual = 50.9; expected = 50.0; previous = 50.0. → Services PMI: actual = 54.8 (the highest value since May 2023); expected = 51.2; previous = 51.3. However, the high PMI values, indicating a healthy economy, led to a drop in the stock index. The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by more than 1.5% following the publication. What explains this case of "good news is bad news"? The point is, amid high business activity, manufacturers reported rising prices for a range of resources, suggesting that goods inflation might strengthen in the coming months. Stock market participants might have interpreted this as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates for a longer period – hence the sharp decline in the index. "Companies remain cautious with respect to the economic outlook amid uncertainty over the future path of inflation and interest rates, and continue to cite worries over geopolitical instabilities and the presidential election," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in an interview with Reuters. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart today (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that: → the price has been forming an ascending channel since 19 April (shown in blue); → bulls failed to hold above the March high around the 5285 level (a bearish sign); → the psychological level of 5300, which showed signs of support this week, has now been breached and may act as resistance. Conversely, the 5200 level, after being breached, has shifted its role from resistance to support (as indicated by arrows). So far, the bearish momentum that emerged yesterday following the PMI news release is being contained at the median line of the blue channel. But if sentiment does not change today, the median might be breached, and then the path to the lower boundary of the channel will open for the S&P 500 price (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen117
SPX500 potential buy the dip opportunityYesterday the SPX500 dropped around 0.8%. this sets up an interesting dynamic where short-term traders may look to capitalize. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.Long02:37by FXCM3
S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty The S&P 500 OANDA:SPX500USD declined by 0.7% on a subdued Thursday as investors adjusted their portfolios amid fluctuating market sentiment. The trading session was marked by an uneasy atmosphere following the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which indicated that central bankers are not in a hurry to reduce interest rates . This cautious stance from the Fed has been a key factor in supporting the recent upward trend in stocks. Technically Side: The price has declined and reached the breakout zone, indicating a potential return to the 5266 level. To continue the bearish trend, the price must break below 5266, confirmed by closing a 4-hour or 1-hour candle under this level. If this occurs, the next targets would be 5226 and 5193. Conversely, if the price closes above 5282, it would suggest a bullish trend, with the potential to reach 5307 and subsequently 5320. Pivot Line: 5282 Resistance Levels: 5305, 5325, 5350 Support Levels: 5245, 5227, 5193 Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5192 and the resistance 5320.by SroshMayi5
SPX Is Going Down! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,303.24. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,089.73. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 336
SPX - Mini Futures Given it's all markets factored in - not sure if tech analysis works here but.. Fib extension right? Keep it simple. Quick look at fib extension and levels look respected given support resistance. by hmaroudas0
US500, support confluence could built bullish momentumWe have a nice confluence of 1H and 4H support at S&P. I'm entering with a long position to potentially follow to new ATHs, if the market sentiment pick up the trend again.Longby KyreanUpdated 0
US500RSI indicates Bearish Divergence. Which means that at any time the market trend can change to LL and LH. Shortby SohailChaudhary1
Another 7 DTE on SPX opened todayThe legs: -5140 +5130 / -5395 +5405 Jun 11th New position is marked with the yellow lines, atm I still have open an SPX 7 DTE which I have now rolled twice and if price ends up within the confines of the first Iron Condor, that would be a break even trade. New trade details: Premium: $115 Fees: $7.13 Premium - Fees: $107.87 Capital allocated: $892.13 % gain on investment: 12.09%by leongabanUpdated 0
W pattern In SPX Daily.Fellow traders! We have a "W" or double bottom pattern on the daily in SPX Oanda. Call it what ever you want, I call it UP. Best we can to as traders is to confide in our charts and call out what you see. Right or wrong , as long as you are right 60% to 80% or higher you are making CASH $$$. Markets are by design to throw you around the room and for a loop from time to time so just be patient. Let's see if money is to be made with this pattern. 5404.5 to start. 5493 area if we break from 5404 area. Trade with patients and trade like a machine, not with emotion. Stick to a plan and set a stop behind your profits at all times. Use a parabolic sar or just below a 10ma as a line in the sand for a stop point. Best of luck in all your trades .Longby Trade-Farmer110
S&P 500, time to buy? where is the support for 1 day chartsTake noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets. The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023. The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023. The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period. Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36. Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years. 3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.Longby juntech8Updated 2
S&P 500 - fresh highs on the horizon?Yesterday saw another swingy session for US stock indices. All the majors began the day on the backfoot, but subsequently recovered their poise to end near their highs. They were all a touch firmer this morning, with the S&P 500 back above 5,300 in early trade. That places the index within 50 points, or 1%, of its record intra-day high from a fortnight ago. Could the last couple of weeks of pull-back and consolidation have provided the reset required ahead of a rally to take stock indices to fresh record highs? Maybe. But stock market volatility, as measured by the VIX, has also picked up a touch over the last fortnight. One interpretation is that it’s getting back to more normal levels after falling to lows last seen in 2018. Another is that May’s decline was a final downside blow-off ahead of a more protracted rally as the US stock market becomes a riskier place to invest. Perhaps we’ll get more clarity as the month progresses. Certainly, there’s plenty in June to influence market behaviour, with this week’s emphasis on the US employment outlook. Yesterday, the JOLTS Job Openings number fell to its lowest level in three years, having declined steadily since the summer of 2022. Today the ADP private payroll release came in weaker than expected. Then there’s the weekly Unemployment Claims tomorrow and the all-important Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday. Maintaining maximum employment is one half of the US Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, and all this data comes ahead of next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged with an upper bound of 5.50%. But the meeting also sees the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Here we’ll get an update on what individual FOMC members are forecasting for inflation, the Fed Funds, unemployment and economic growth for this year and beyond. This could provide the clearest insight on where interest rates may be by year-end.by TylerNorcross0
.382 retrace points to 5580 rally...?SP500 Short Term Bullish Update: Target 5550-5600 As of June 5th, 2024, I’m providing a short-term bullish update on the SP500 (ticker SPX). My expected rise is to the 5550-5600 range with a potential overshoot to 5400, which should be short-lived, assuming 5192 holds as support. Long-term, I remain bearish on the SP500, believing we are in a grand supercycle fifth of the highest degree. Key Points: Short-term bullish target: 5550-5600 Potential overshoot: 5400 (short-lived) Critical support: 5192 Long-term outlook: Bearish due to grand supercycle Longby candlestickninja0
S&P Cup and HandleOn Daily chart setup for S&P it seems to be a technical pattern emerging C&H which may lead S&P for the next leg to 5640-5700. Longby vickyddk0
S&P vs the Misery IndexMisery index. YoY inflation + high yield spread + unemployment. When it's above about 13-15, and/or when the market and the misery index move up in correlation, we tend to see a pullbackLongby Ben_1148x20
Trading PlanThere are lots of different theories and perspectives and setups. Layers and layers and layers. My trading plan/theory for the next week/month is to try to find a nice blow-off rally into all time highs before the real selling starts. Most people are deer-in-the-headlights unaware that we are on the brink of what is going to be a historic financial crisis. There are two ways we can go, I predict: 1) USD lives. Fed hikes rates, epic market collapse. But the cash stays alive. Maybe 5-10% inflation, not CPI I mean really, really what you're paying. The data is cooked and has been. Even the fed doesn't trust headline inflation numbers as it's been so skewed to make it look better... 2) USD dies. This is a cazier, but just as likely possibility. What happens: rupublicans (trump) wins election. Trump kicks the fed out of their role, US controls monetary policy. Set interest rates at 0%. Markets go to infinity as dollar collapses. Hyper-inflation, the USD dies. If 2021 USD is $1. Today it's $0.87. It'll go to 0.1 of those 2021 dollars. You'll buy $0.05 candies for a five dollar bill. The middle class is obliterated. Wallstreet buys all of the houses. We all rent. This is what the WEF predicts aka "the great reset" where the US Deficit is reset and your dollars go with it. Damnit hold gold! Especially if the republicans win. This has happened before, yes. The word "debase" means to put shit metals in gold coins to stretch them. They look mostly the same, but actually, your money is slowly becoming worthless. Now there isn't gold coins, it's literally monopoly money in your hand. Those bio-survival tickets can go to $0. It has happened before - look at Ray Dalio's book. www.amazon.ca He said "the things that surprised me the most were the things that never happened in my lifetime. They had happened before, just not in my lifetime." So he, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, went back through history to see the patters of the past to find where we are in the cycle. It ain't lookin' good if you are still believin' in the american dream. All the data that I need to know what's up has been delivered. I honesty don't trust the recent numbers. I feel like the US is lying to people about the realities of core inflation. Whatever way this goes, I'll win. I hope that you don't lose so that the "great reset" comes to fruition. I don't want that. by decklyndubs0
$SPX For the last 2 years, banks have fudded people in and out of the stock market. Aside from tail end picks - read NVDA - SP:SPX has still been chugging along. The next few months I believe we will begin to see sideways consolidation in the SP:SPX as it enters into a wave 4. Give the very short duration of wave 2, the summer months are poised to be challenging for the $SPX. Ultimately, I hold the belief that the final high is not in for the $SPX. Folks will just have to be able to whether the oncoming correction. What does this mean for the #crypto market? There are periods where #crypto and CRYPTOCAP:BTC decouple from traditional markets, this is only true because of wave structures. Ultimately if TradFi crashes - which I think it will sometime in 2025, the high beta plays like #cryptocurrency will go along with it. by Nology3000Updated 0
A little more off the top All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice.Shortby THE_APIS_TRADER0
SPX Short Term Bearish: RSI Divergence, Doji, Hindenburg OmenThe S&P500 looks bearish in the short term. There is a bearish RSI divergence in the weekly and daily chart, with price increasing and RSI decreasing. The weekly momentum is slowing down. The weekly doji candle on 20 May can indicate a local top and the beginning of a short-term correction. The triggering of the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome signifies increased risk in the markets. The expected rate cuts in 2024 can cause the market to have a short-term negative reaction, as happened before by 35% around the 2019 Fed Pivot, 58% in 2007 and 51% in 2000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently an 18.5% probability of a rate cut at the 31 July FOMC meeting and a 65.7% probability at the 18 September meeting. The closing below the 21W EMA can act as confirmation. A potential bottom can be a wick towards the future 200W EMA at around $4350, but the correction might not be as significant. A long term bullish perspective remains, with a potential significant uptrend starting in November - December 2024 due to rate cuts and increased liquidity. Not financial advice, do your own research, do not take any actions based on this idea.by dumcom1
Bullish flag on S&P500SP500 - Could this happen? I see this will breakout the all high as it's an important resistance.Longby Al-Waseem0
Possible Buy Scenario for S&P500 todayThis is the buy scenario I'll be considering today. The chart speaks for itself, but if anyone requires more context I'd be glad to provide it. Keep it simple. Trade wisely.Longby 5stones0