S&P vs the Misery IndexMisery index. YoY inflation + high yield spread + unemployment. When it's above about 13-15, and/or when the market and the misery index move up in correlation, we tend to see a pullbackLongby Ben_1148x20
A little more off the top All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice.Shortby THE_APIS_TRADER0
SPX Short Term Bearish: RSI Divergence, Doji, Hindenburg OmenThe S&P500 looks bearish in the short term. There is a bearish RSI divergence in the weekly and daily chart, with price increasing and RSI decreasing. The weekly momentum is slowing down. The weekly doji candle on 20 May can indicate a local top and the beginning of a short-term correction. The triggering of the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome signifies increased risk in the markets. The expected rate cuts in 2024 can cause the market to have a short-term negative reaction, as happened before by 35% around the 2019 Fed Pivot, 58% in 2007 and 51% in 2000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently an 18.5% probability of a rate cut at the 31 July FOMC meeting and a 65.7% probability at the 18 September meeting. The closing below the 21W EMA can act as confirmation. A potential bottom can be a wick towards the future 200W EMA at around $4350, but the correction might not be as significant. A long term bullish perspective remains, with a potential significant uptrend starting in November - December 2024 due to rate cuts and increased liquidity. Not financial advice, do your own research, do not take any actions based on this idea.by dumcom1
Bullish flag on S&P500SP500 - Could this happen? I see this will breakout the all high as it's an important resistance.Longby Al-Waseem0
SPXUSSPX500 Tendency the price is under bearish pressure between 5,309 and 5,319 Turning level : The turning level between 5,309 and 5,319 so as long as the price below this level, there will be a bearish trend resistance level : Breaking the turning level 5,319 , the price will rise to 5,342 as long as the price stabilize this level , there will be a new peak support level : The trading stabilizing below 5,309 the price will reach the support level of 5,241 and 5,193, and under this level it will reach 5,174 corrective level : price will attempt between between 5,309 and 5,319, correct itself before falling Shortby ArinaKarayi2
S&P500: First green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day ✅ 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump Dump&Pump ✅ Frontside ✅ Backside 4. THESIS: Long: primary, potential buy low after the news, going to stop short traders from previous week, completing the weekly dump and pump. Short: secondary, the breakout of Friday left space with no retest, means that traders long never got their positions "shake". I wouldn't exclude a third hour reversal for a scalp back into the previous HOD. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni Longby GianniPichicheroUpdated 1
decline directionSPX500USD - Tendency : the price is a decline direction 5,309 - Turning level : The turning level is at 5,309 where price has now stabilized at the bottom - resistance level : Breaking the turning level 5,309 , the price will rise to 5,324 and 5,342 - support level : the price stabilizing below 5,309 the price will reach the support level of 5,275 and 5,249 - corrective level : price will attempt in 5,309 to correct itself before falling Shortby ArinaKarayiUpdated 4
7 DTE trade on SPX - expires Jun 4thNew 7 DTE opened -5200 +5195 / -5385 +5390 Jun 4th Premium - fees: $ 145.79 allocated $ 840.00 2 contracts 17% gain Will close near 50%by leongabanUpdated 0
SPX500 H4 | Resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracement?The SPX500 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,324.57 which is a is pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,371.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high. Take profit is at 5,259.06 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Short03:16by FXCM0
S&P500 Retracement 31.05.2024U.S. Indices: Friday's Jump 31.05.2024! What's next? S&P500 H1 Chart Remarks and Technical Insights: - A reversal, crossing the 30-period MA on its way up potentially ending the downtrend. - Confirmation of the bullish divergence (RSI: higher lows, Price: lower lows). - The index is near the upper band of the 50- period Bollinger Bands indicating resistance for moving further to the upside. - Retracement to the 61.8 Fibo level (back to the 61.8% of the total movement to the upside is more probable. Target Level is near 5,265 USD Less probable alternative scenario could be the breakout of the 5,300 USD resistance pushing the index more to the upside with target level near 5,330 USD. __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350)Shortby BDSwiss_Academy0
SPX500 Short Analysis OnlyShort Analysis for SPX500 Market Participant is highlighted in orange Liquidity was taken before in a higher time frame. Looking at the market to short into lower liquidity pools Shortby TheEliteTrading0
Trend Health ChecklistEquities have the strongest short, intermediate, and long term trend. The trend for the US10yr has shown a bit of strength inf the short and medium term. Short term trends for Bitcoin and commodities are favorable, with some intermediate weakness. The DXY is bearish on short and intermediate timeframes. SP:SPX TVC:US10 COINBASE:BTCUSD TVC:DXY Longby Ben_1148x20
spxspx has completed the formation of 1.902 crab. The tp is 0.382,0.618 ad.Shortby SeoVereignUpdated 0
SPX: jobs data aheadThe S&P 500 Index saw modest gains during the previous week, closing the month at the level of 5.277. The index marked an increase of 4.8% for the month. The index started the week with some volatility, starting the week with a decline to 5.306, then rebounded and maintained a generally positive trajectory. Still, year-to-date, the index gained 11.3% reflecting strong performance relative to the broader market trends over the year. Certainly, there has been some investor nervousness prior to the release of the PCE data, however, as there were no surprises on this side, the market optimism was brought back. It especially cherished Nvidia`s positive earnings last week, whose price was up by nearly 27% for the month. Another interesting data from the stock market showed that companies included in the S&P 500 repurchased more than $202 billion of their own stocks during the Q1, while analysts are noting that this trend might continue also during the course of this year. The developments from the last two weeks are showing that the index went out from the overbought momentum. There is probability for a short reversal, but it might take even a few weeks until the index enters into clear oversold momentum. A week ahead brings US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, which might increase volatility. by XBTFX8
Watch Us Trade A Bear (or Bull for those in denial) MarketWe firmly believe that the major stock indexes have a very dire Macro outlook. We will not go into details here (see our other posts) but with the market heading for a downturn we thought it would be awesome to show other small retail investors (thats what we are) that there is nothing to fear. Well nothing to fear other than blowing up your account- we do not plan to do that though lol. Ok so we are going to keep this simple. Here goes: -We are going to take a small $500 account and grow it -We will only trade stocks, etfs, etc- NO OPTIONS TRADING -We will post a screenshot of our real positions- wins AND losses -We will chart the positions on trading view so we can track the progress in real time BTW- the screenshots are all the proof we will provide that the trades are real. We dont care if someone thinks its fake And thats it... We will begin at market open on 05/14/24 by Heartbeat_TradingUpdated 21
US500RSI indicates Bearish Divergence. Which means that at any time the market trend can change to LL and LH. Shortby SohailChaudharyUpdated 228
Top Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy SectorFastest Earnings Growers in the S&P 500 Energy Sector Nearly half the companies in the S&P 500 energy sector are expected to achieve double-digit annual earnings growth. Updated : ConocoPhillips announced its acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. on Wednesday. Energy stocks are currently undervalued relative to expected earnings, even though the sector has been the best performer in the S&P 500 over the past three years. Last month, we examined all 23 stocks in the S&P 500 energy sector for their returns on invested capital over the previous three years. With Exxon Mobil's recent acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources on May 3, the sector now comprises 22 stocks. Further consolidation is underway, with ConocoPhillips agreeing to acquire Marathon Oil Corp., and Hess Corp. set to be acquired by Chevron Corp. in a $53 billion deal. Sector Valuations and Growth Rates The energy sector remains the least expensive of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, despite its high three-year total return. However, it has the worst 10-year return, reflecting the oil price crash from mid-2014 to early 2016 and investor reluctance to re-engage with the sector. Chip Stocks Dominate S&P 500 for the First Time Chip stocks have surpassed software stocks to hold the largest sector weighting in the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about the semiconductor sector's financial prospects due to artificial intelligence advancements and concerns over budget pressures in the software industry. Strategas strategist Todd Sohn noted that the chip sector's 11% weight in the S&P 500 marked a new high, up from just 2% in early 2014. The combined weight of the top five sectors reached 27%, the highest in 44 years of data. Conversely, the software sector faces challenges, with Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein highlighting delayed deals and cautious spending due to the macroeconomic climate. Salesforce Inc. exemplified these issues, with its stock plummeting after management reduced its forecast and discussed budget scrutiny. Technically analyse: Shortby SroshMayi8
SP500 Wyckoff Spring with Outside Day in the Daily + Cup&HandleThe daily charts offer a Spring setup opportunity while the weekly chart supports that idea with a good-looking Hammer. What is interesting is the Outside Day bar, which comes on a good volume. There is a previous resistance that turns support. The setup is a bit tighter than I'd prefer and makes the risk-to-reward, not the best, but the markets are rarely perfect. This particular setup might also be called a cup and handle pattern by William Oneil's fans. Its target is equal to an important Fib extension level. Longby TheSpringHunter0
Commodities Investment Theme##Macro 1. Inflation Inflation drives commodity prices - for example - oil gas wheat lumber steel. If inflation are stick, gold silver are great hedges, and so far it is not pricing in much as most investors are not holding gold. 2. Interest Rates Lowering rate is good reason to buy commodities, as lower rates weaken fiat currencies and enhance attractiveness of commodities, it also reduce opportunity cost of holding non yielding asset like precious metals. 3. Supply Chain Disruptions Mining storage, increase demands from other sectors like AI, this seems to be the case for now. 4. Geopolitical Tension Russia Ukraine price has rose oil and natural gas price 5. Energy transition, green tech and ai demand 6. Weather related supply shocks - such as agricultural commodities affected from weather prices. (coffee futures) Some examples and explaination of commodities: 1. Coca: Increase in cocoa price is not just supply concerns, robust demand for choco products worldwide is ranked bullish, west africa is most esssential coca producing region in the world and both political instability and bad weather condition hurt crop yields. 2. Orange Juice: Price went up 300% since pandemic started, price rose due to citrus greening disease that has devasted florida orange supplies. 3. Silver Gold 13% move higher in gold can be attributed to lowering rates and foreign government buying, aside from fear from retail investors scared of geopolical conflicts. Copper also have renewed interest due to AI demand and China's economy rebound, but need to pay attention to chinese inventory level to guage price levels. Coming plays: 1. Natty Gas - price was high in 202 due to conflict of war, but now it is likely to rally for meeting the power usage of AI data centers. 2. Lithium - for ESS solutions and EV solutions. Mining could be a challenge that drives up prices, need to research more on mining facility 3. Wheat: Prices higher after Russia Ukraine war but all gains was erased, weather plays a role in this. Stuff to buy: AMEX:USO - oil, AMEX:UGA - gasoline, AMEX:UNG - natural gas AMEX:WEAT - wheat, AMEX:CORN - corn, AMEX:SOYB - soybeans Stocks wise: Energy products services sustainable solutions - SCCO Integrated copper producer: TRGP Midstream natty gass NGL service in US: TSCO Rural lifestyle retailer products: AU GLobal gold mining company in south africa - NEE Clean energy with wind and solar energy producing: VLO by EugeneC000
SPX500USD is ready to rise againHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made exactly the move I've said in the outlook. So now the correction has finished and we could look for longs again. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down on a lower timeframe and change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveLongby EduwaveTrading1111
Another Perspective: "a great place to exit"Not financial advise, and anything could happen, but there is historically an 80% probability that this breaks down. The US Government and the Federal reserve have made some grave errors. Same mistakes over and over. This one looks real to me. Not a correction. Not a dip to buy. It's a maelstorm from hell. In real dollar terms, we touched 2021 highs here and rejected. Because people are slow to respond, it will be a very slow motion event I suspect. At this point, we have a setup likely to dip. You can check out here, let it drop, and buy back in if your greedy fingers want more more more. But if you're looking for safety, I think we are likely on the brink of something seriously salty. If there is a catalyst - a geopolitical event, or bank failures... If consumer confidence in the financial system is poisoned. Maybe by bots running in china suggesting people take their money out of the bank, then the world will go to shit. If the top in 2021 invoked terror in you, then you see it here in 2024. Divide the market by uscpi - it's a double top in real dollars. US gov't is going to spend today and take it from all of us tomorrow in inflation. "The things that surprised me the most were the things that had not happened in my lifetime." I don't know what happens next, but I'm very sure that things are gonna get weird. Shortby decklyndubsUpdated 3
TIME TO SELL NASDAQ TIME TO SELL NASDAQ Price finally reached weekly bearish selling zone (Akka in Spanish "area de ventas"). I expect a strong sell towards SMA 30 @ W1 changing weekly tendency from strong bullish into strong bearish. TP areas will be triangle cuspid and 50-61.8%Shortby imktads0
SPX GANN ANALYSISNow reverse for correction for target at 5284.25 then 5295.75 then supposed for reverse staying above 5295.75 means reverse of downwards moveby algayar37111