just got a chance to update the moneyMy old lines remain the same. The market have the potential to go back S&P 500 4700.Shortby sj4651770
If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and BottomI am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern. **The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B** The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4. CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR: I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do. ******2023****** This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement The full inverted movement picture was this: If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days. ******2018****** This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days. ******2014****** This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days. ******2011****** This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days. ******2005****** This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days. ******2000****** This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days. ******1990****** This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days. ******1979****** This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days. ******1968****** This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days. ******1965****** This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days. Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635. One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022. The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement. We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.Shortby StockSignalerUpdated 2218
Commodities index vs SPX In 2007, the commodities index started rising sharply just after the market top. You should have sold your stocks just before that last increase in the commodity index. When there's a bubble brewing in commodities, you should sell. Markets crash when commodities sharply rise then fall. Longby brian76830
Bullish correctionWXY (double zigzag is complete). May evolve into a triple combo. So far looks niceLongby Alpha_Mind0
Trade Idea based off recession indicator & squeeze any advice?another pullback? Recession Probability Value of Spread (Percent) (Percentage Points) 5 1.21 10 0.76 15 0.46 20 0.22 25 0.02 30 -0.17 40 -0.50 50 -0.82 60 -1.13 70 -1.46 80 -1.85 90 -2.40 Shortby zingraphicsUpdated 4
SPX analysis at Time One daily timeThis index continues its upward trend and the ceiling of 48,000 will be broken The price has made its protected floor by hitting its local support and is doing fractal behavior to break the price ceiling. I watch the market Not financial advice Longby fiftytwohertzwhaleUpdated 6
S&P 500: Bouhmidi-Reversal now with TPOAfter the initial balance, we see that the index continues its weakness and has broken through the 1 Bouhmidi-Bands and the point of control (POC) of Wednesday . Today, the previous day's low and the 1.5 Bouhmidi-Band converge at 5138. A test of 5138 is possible with even a reversal towards the BB range. I also now include TPO charts Longby Sisa872
S&P 500 Price Consolidates ahead of Earnings SeasonS&P 500 Price Consolidates ahead of Earnings Season On April 4, we wrote that the S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness around the 5,250 level. How is the situation on the stock market developing by today, which is the start of the reporting season for the first quarter? The S&P 500 fell sharply on Wednesday amid higher-than-expected inflation data. But the S&P 500 rose yesterday after data showed producer prices rose only slightly in March. According to Forexfactory: → Producer Price Index (PPI) in monthly terms: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, a month ago = 0.6%; → Core PPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.2%, a month ago = 0.3%. At the same time, a bottom-up reversal has formed on the S&P 500 chart, which: → reflects changing moods. Since the publication of the PPI has allayed some concerns about persistently high price pressures in the economy; → corrected the location of the lower border of the ascending channel (shown in blue), confirming its action as support. After news-filled days related to inflation and expectations of a change in Fed monetary policy, investors' focus turns to earnings season. Today after the close of the trading session about JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Citigroup Inc (C), and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). According to technical analysis of the S&P-500 chart: → the median line of the ascending channel works as resistance, “not letting” the price into the upper half of the channel. This strengthens the mentioned resistance level of 5250. → if the bulls fail to build on Thursday’s momentum, the price may enter consolidation between the levels of 5140 and 5250. The closest test for the sustainability of demand is the trend line (shown in black). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen116
spx500basic market structure earning will be in focus which i am expecting banks to beat its been a good year for stocks and many people have been paying off credit card debt because of the high interest and also paying high interest very good thing to look atLongby Bronxbull113
SPX500 H4 | Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 could fall towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,111.36 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,050.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,229.13 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Long03:04by FXCMUpdated 112
SPX priced in Gold Quarterly Log ChartAs momentum is drying up for #spx priced in #gold (and close to full break down)... Hope for a 1995-2000 type of melt-up (in real terms), is evaporating.by Badcharts2
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan: Shortby TradingBrokersView119
Enhance Your Trading with Adaptive Trend Finder (log) on SPXJoin me as I delve into the intricacies of trend analysis using the Adaptive Trend Finder (log) on TradingView, focusing on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). This powerful tool is my go-to for identifying both short-term and long-term trends, leveraging the robust Pearson correlation method. Displayed prominently in the lower center (in gray) is the strength of the long-term trend channel, while on the right (in yellow) you'll find the indicator for the short-term trend channel. These indicators provide valuable insights into the prevailing market sentiments. I invite you to explore and interpret the signals yourself and share your thoughts in the comments section. Let's uncover together the potential trading opportunities and trends that can be derived from this innovative analysis tool. Your observations and insights are highly valued in our trading community. Stay tuned for more updates and discussions on how we can leverage the Adaptive Trend Finder by Julien_Eche9
BUYBuying on this demand zone 5150 stop loss @ 5110 below support Targeting All time high 5300 expecting continue uptrendLongby Arys-CapitalUpdated 11
SPX - Trendday Bull Put at lower Bouhmidi-BandSPX - Nice trend day in play. After defending previous day low we moved higher and breaking previous day high. Bull Puts on 1 + 1.5 sigma #BouhmidiBands working out fine today. Longby Sisa872
S&P500; Into the Void Pt.5The final idea of this S&P500 series. Upon market open today, we went into a tight range, where a retracement was expected. We will safely head for TP2 now as price expands. Please boost and follow if you would like to see more of this content,Longby jordandeklerkUpdated 0
S&P500 : ROUNDING TOP- The market has been trading inside a bullish channel since November 2024 ; The long-term trend was then bullish. - More recently, the latest batch of solid macro data underlying the resiliency of the US Economy, and with the latest CPI report topping expectations, investors have scaled back their hopes of a quick dovish switch from the FED. This led to a decreased appetite for riskier assets such as stocks, bringing the S&P500 to a lateral consolidation following a new all-time high below 5,282pts. The DMI indicator clearly shows a less and less directional price action, dominated by a bearish pressure. The RSI indicator is now evolving in selling zone, following a bearish divergence with the market. - Both macro and technical signs are now aligned, tending to support the case for a market correction. Increased monetary uncertainty combined with high stock valuation usually brings investors to readjust their exposure to risk, and this is what we are seeing here. Even if the market still trade inside the 5,116pts/5,282pts range, the rounding top chart pattern can be seen as much more threatening for the short to mid-term outlook. If the market were to break the 5,116pts support level, it would pave the way to a much deeper correction towards 5,000pts, 4,830pts, 4,690pts and even lower. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. UShortby ActivTrades2
Another warning for US stock indicesUS stock indices fell sharply yesterday following yet another hotter-than-expected inflation reading. Headline CPI for March jumped to 3.5% year-on-year, up from the 3.4% expected, and well above the 3.2% recorded in February. The latest reading is the highest since September’s 3.7%, and it has certainly rattled financial markets. Stock index futures sold off sharply, as did precious metals, while the US dollar soared. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note jumped 18 basis points to hit its highest level since mid-November last year. Investors are once again recalibrating the probabilities of rate cuts this year. Having initially forecast six 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, investors had recently reduced their forecasts to a maximum of three cuts. But now two seems more likely, if that. And it looks as if we may have to wait until September to get the first, rather than June as previously forecast. Having fallen steadily from a peak of 9.1% in the summer of 2022, Headline CPI hit 3.0% in June last year. But it has moved sideways ever since. Worse than that, ‘supercore’ inflation has become a major talking point. ‘Supercore’ strips out items considered temporary influences including food, energy, shelter and rent costs. It rose to +4.8% year-on-year yesterday, its highest level in eleven months. The problem is that items in ‘supercore’ items such as property taxes, car and home insurance, are non-discretionary, and therefore very difficult to shift lower, even by raising rates. We also saw the minutes of last month’s Fed meeting. The key takeaway was that Fed members believe that rates have peaked, with the first cut likely in the second half of this year. Whether this remains the case is something we’ll discover soon perhaps. All the major US indices closed off their lows, yesterday but they were weaker first thing this morning. We got some relief from a benign update on wholesale inflation in the form of the Producer Prices Index before the US open. The news helped to lift all the US majors off their lows. Despite this, the bulls remain anxious given the current stock market weakness. The sell-off is yet another wake up call for investors who have become habituated to stocks only going up. While it has come as a shock to many, it hasn’t done any significant structural damage to the bullish technical set-up, yet. But should the selling continue tomorrow and ahead of the weekend, it could be enough to sour sentiment and persuade investors to cut their long-side exposure. by TylerNorcross1
SPX500 is trading at support, suggesting dip in an uptrendShort-term traders are trying to be proactive, however technical developments are still required before a "dip in the uptrend" scenario is registered. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.Long05:41by FXCM2
Bulls and Bears zone for 04-11-2024S&P has been trading in a range since April 4th sell off. Neither buyers or sellers have any conviction in trading. Level to watch: 5217.00 ----5215.00 Report to watch: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 am ESTby traderdan590
US500 Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 5203.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5153.7 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 114
US500 is this the end?* CPI report came out today of 3.4, 0.1 Point higher than consensus 3.3 * Food and durable goods experienced significant gain.. (Egg price went up by 5 percent during this month only... guess no more scramble eggs for the rest of the month fml) * Other trajectories remained pretty stable from last month. * Latest PMI report delivered score that is higher than 50 points for the first time in two years. And so far so on.. Market suggests the narrative is now much further away from expected June Rate cut, which had extended end of the year rally throughout the first quarter of the current year. It is very troublesome time for investors to make their investment decisions. Obviously, you can go for other alternatives like SET:GC , NYSE:CL , CRYPTOCAP:BTC , etc.. Chart-wise, I think we are also indecisive of which direction to head towards. We might end up being consolidated till the next inflation relative publication to give us a better hint of Fed's interest rate decision. Each side is surrounded by persistent 4 hour or higher timeframe order blocks with no significant volume occurrence because everyone is too busy buying Treasury bonds and alternative investments... Here are two narratives you can refer to which I've found quite persuasive..(and obviously, its you who will make your decision): 1. Powell said he will cut rates 3 times this year. Bull trend will continue until the rate cut is completed. 2. One suggests that the Neutral Interest rate is being fixated at the current level, and Fed won't be able to meet their expected rate of inflation. Also, Fed is highly unlikely to lower interest rate until the nomination season is over because it will heavily impact the nomination outcome. Well, this is it. Wish you all the traders best of luck...and I expect you will pray for myself as well (cuz I need it desperately). The best of wish to you all.by Kim_CLSPXUpdated 0