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US Government Bonds 2 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 2 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 2 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield

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US02Y trade ideas

US02Y Next Move The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise. However, if we begin to receive signals indicating that the Federal Reserve may wish to continue lowering interest rates this year, gold may be more optimistic. We should monitor the level of two-year and ten-year bonds, the direction of the dollar index, and geopolitical aspects to be clear about the direction of gold.
TVC:US02Y
by HezhaRavandi
Huge divergenceSo when we examine this relationship closely its clear that SPX does not nessisarily follow the dictates of the inverted yield curve (2y / 10y). However, the general adherence to trends has clearly diverged in a big way. We can look back to January of 2023 and see a similar divergence where SPX finaly reacted with a violent move down into March of 2023. I think we need to watch very closely for a similar reaction. The market has once again priced for perfection, we all know its not perfect. Employment, GDP and earnings are still supporting higher rates, and unless the current administration has real influence over the Fed - there will be no rate cutting in the near future. Still the elimination of QT may even have a larger affect on the markets. Stay tuned, be safe out there.
TVC:US02Y
by reluctantplumber
2Y Yields LowerTVC:US02Y 2Y Yields heading lower. Sometime over the next 12-18ish months, I believe we'll see 2Y yields fall to 200-275 bps. Headline inflation numbers are lower and dropping. The Fed has effectively pulled a rabbit out of a hat in the act of raising interest rates by ~500+ bps, while avoiding the obliteration of the economy. (thus far) If the economy does falter in the coming months; the Fed will lower rates. (No further explanation needed) Despite the endless repetition of "higher for longer" from Fed officials; I believe that the Fed will lower rates even if the economy and markets remain strong. The establishment powers in the political & financial world's that the Fed straddles both crave the same thing... Cheap Debt. In addition to this, there are over $34+ Trillion reasons to lower rates as soon as possible. Not to mention, the upcoming election... The market is anticipating lower yields as well. We're seeing the market preemptively increase exposure to interest rate sensitive assets. (i.e. - tech stocks, indices, cryptos, beaten down govt bonds, etc.) On a technical basis, the weekly chart of 2Y Yields is showing substantial bearish divergence. Weekly RSI shows a bearish RSI Swing Rejection (March '23 and October '23 highs) The 50% & 61.8% Fib levels give us a target of 200-275 bps. The median line set suggests that yields could arrive at the target area sometime between May '24 - May '25. Conclusion: Short Yields. Fat_Fat
TVC:US02YShort
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
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