Throughout the latest 20 years, the difference between US10Y and US02Y bonds is the one legitimate screener on the recessions on the real economy and indicator of bloodbath of the stock markets. 1987, 2000-01, 2008 and latest coronavirus crises are exactly corresponding the bottoms of the chart. Now, chart sharply falls and I expect an extensive crash on the...
We are clearly seeing Bond Yields tightening at an unprecedented rate. What is so interesting about this is that historically, yields have been driven higher by the FEDs Fund Rate, but Powell merely did a 0.25% hike on March 16th. Bonds have already priced in rates at 2.5% and coincidentally this was the same rate (2.5%-3.0%) that drove the market into...
Hi everyone, The chart is valid since 1986 and there is only one person who trades that channel is Warren Buffett. Now its on really good resistance and as you know there is a counter correlation with the 10Y Bond Rates and Commodities (not always ofc, the real interest is also impartant bla bla). My expectation is that market has priced most of the FED's...
Market Updates at a Glance: 29 March 2022 (Tuesday)🌎 ☛U.S Stocks Fueled by Improving Sentiment. Eyeing the Further Flattening & Inversion Yield Curve. ➤US stocks continued higher with Dow +0.27%, S&P 500 +0.71% and Nasdaq +1.31% and VIX dropping below 20. A strong rally in Tesla & meme stocks lifted the risk sentiment. ➤The US dollar index broke out of the...
united states yield curve. Is the yield curve inverted 2021? Today, the U.S. yield curve is not inverted, but it's getting a lot less steep in recent months. There's a 42bps spread between the 10 year and 2 year U.S. Treasury bond yields today. In March 2021, the spread was triple that.11 feb 2022 L.E.D. In Spain on 28/03/2022
Multiple SPY corrections when bonds demand picks up and at the same time dollar demand picks up. Safe-haven risk-off psychology.
In this update we review the recent price action in the US10yr and identify the next high probability trade location and price objective to target.
I'll bet the the US10Y will smash the 2.80% long term downtrend line with ease!!!
For the past 40 years, 8/10 times growth peaked, and bond yields rolled over. The two times this didn't happen were in the early '80s and 2022. Between 2022 and the early '80s, the two things in common are high inflation and surging oil prices.
Chart showing lead time between the curve inversion and the start of the stock market crashes along the time. Longest lead time was around 760 days (+2 years) Shortest lead time was 4-5 months. Consider a 6 months as a rule for your readiness: - Build up cash reserves. - Partial sells of variable income equities (stocks, crypto, etc). - From 4-6 months forward,...
I'd like to see this at 92'00, I'd really load up there. Called this long the last time we were a this level recently as well. Fundamentally speaking, impending rate hikes. If you talk about Russia, its political fear, pay them no mind, thats what politicians do; fear and greed. Control risk & buy low/sell high
Widespread economic data reflecting unhealthy market indicating significant risk of total market correction (stagflation/recession) 1. Inflation (CPI, PPI) sharly rising at levels not seen in 4 decades 2. Leading indicator: New Home Sales declining, with increasing housing supply 3. Lagging Indicator: Durable Goods month over month and year over year declined 4....
Government bonds look poised for a further drop, but have already reached historic lows. Continued dumping of treasuries will benefit ponzi markets such as stocks, bitcoin, metals etc. Should banks chose to buy (and they will eventually) bonds on mass this will lead to a huge sell-off across markets. A continued parabolic dump on bonds will lead to an associated...
Long term US10Y Monthly Fib Channels. Much lines. Extra words...
Hello This is an update of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield time wave analysis. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to rise monthly. Last year, I recommended Buy at the expected location of the new monthly correction trend line. This year, it is expected to rise to the level of 2.7-2.8%. The weekly upward wave continues on top of the monthly upward wave, and...
it's a little dirty, but it looks like a failed head and shoulders, which would confirm the rebound on the main figure, the weekly head and shoulders of bullish continuation which could form an engulfing on a weekly chart with the close tomorrow night I enter with a part of the position and the remainder tomorrow for closing