RUSSIAN TROOPS INVADE UKRAINE, DIGITAL ASSETS PLUNGE Confirmation of Russian troops entering the Kyiv region of Ukraine has sent risk assets tumbling in today’s trading session as investors flee to safe-haven currencies. Despite efforts by Western leaders and Japan to prevent the invasion by imposing sanctions on Russia, Putin’s decision to proceed with the...
Gold prices pulled back to $1,892 from an eight-month high of $1,908 during Monday’s APAC mid-day trading session after French media said that US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to hold a summit about the Ukraine crisis, bringing hopes that the dispute can be resolved in a diplomatic way. This news cooled demand for...
CHF/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHF/JPY has shown a tendency for sideways trading before breaking out and then consolidating again. This could be happening at present with the new trading range potentially being 123.593 – 127.078. These trading blocks have been shifting higher over the last 6 months as it remains within the longer-term ascending trend channel. The...
CABLE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The week ahead holds quite a few market moving events from the pound perspective. Several Bank of England MPC members are scheduled to deliver speeches which could bring some price volatility to GBP crosses. After positive UK economic data this week including employment, retail sales and CPI, we could see a more hawkish view adding to...
RUSSIAN-UKRAINE CONFLICT CONTINUES TO DRIVE MARKET SENTIMENT Markets remain fixated on the rising tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, which took a turn for the worse yesterday after Russian President Putin recognised the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. In effect, this will provide the pretext for Russian troops to cross the border as peacekeepers....
Crude oil prices extended higher during Wednesday’s APAC mid-day session, hovering at fresh 7-year highs. WTI is trading above $92 bbl, and Brent is above $97 bbl. Prices are driven by intensified Russia-Ukraine tensions and sanctions after Moscow recognized the independence of two breakaway eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk on Tuesday before...
I’m going to work backwards here as there’s a range that remains in-play, which has been incredibly clean, but there may be something more important showing on the longer-term chart that I’ll get into after. Near-term, the range remains strong in USD/CAD with continued support at the same 2622-2672 zone that I’ve been following throughout last year. Prices are...
EUR/USD Bullish Bets Persist Despite Russian Risks In the latest reporting week to February 15th, net longs in the US Dollar fell for a 5th consecutive week to total $7.38bln, marking the smallest bullish bet in the greenback since August. The lack of speculative inflows somewhat underscores the dollar’s rather tame reaction to the recent repricing in the Fed’s...
Gold shot higher on Friday as the markets erupted in the aftermath of Thursday’s record-breaking US CPI number and escalating geo-political tensions around the Ukraine border. The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding about 1.95%, notably lower than the high seen on Friday at 2.06%. The Treasury curve is similarly seeing lower returns. Government bonds around the...
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW 1Q’22 GROWTH ESTIMATE Based on the data received thus far about 1Q’22, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is now at +1.3% annualized, down from +1.5% on February 16. The downgrade was a result of “the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from +4.7% to +0.3%.” The next update to the 1Q’22 Atlanta Fed GDPNow...
AUDGBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Since making a high at 0.5436 , AUDGBP has bounced off a support level at 0.5209 and consolidated within a range. Since rallying from that low, we have seen an ascending trend evolve. However, yesterday we saw a bearish Engulfing pattern, which might suggest a reversal and a possible test lower. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) has...
On the back of previously unnerving headlines, news around Ukraine shifted to reports that some Russian forces were retreating from the border and the US would not have soldiers fight So long as the Ukraine pressure remains in remission, the focus and turn back to interest rate speculation with the FOMC minutes, key earnings, UK and Canadian inflation figures on...
In early February, prices tested the ceiling of the rectangle before turning lower. That has placed the focus on the floor of the formation. Breaking under the rectangle would expose the Euro’s average lowest price since the peak of its decline in 2020. On the flip side, clearing the ceiling could open the door to retesting summer 2021 highs. EUR/USD TECHNICAL...
GBPCHF has been exploring lower prices of late having finally mustered up the strength to break below 1.26. Price then gyrated between the psychological barriers at 1.26 and 1.2530, ultimately culminating in a break higher to Resistance . This Resistance , which has rejected the prices since January, has held up yet again. Price revisited 1.26 on a bounce from...
Super Bowl LVI weekend is here, with the Cincinnati Bengals set to take on the Los Angeles Rams. Data analytics firm PredictHQ suggests that over 100 million Americans will watch the big game on Sunday. And while that may mean more eyeballs for advertisers, it also means that many people will be watching the game for a different reason: sports...
After rejecting an attempt to break below the November low of 0.69913 earlier this month, AUD/USD has established a short-term range of 0.70903 to 0.72237. However, momentum might still be bearish for AUD/USD. Looking at the simple moving averages (SMA), a bearish triple moving average (TMA) formation requires the price to be below the short term SMA, the latter...
EUR/USD built a morning star formation last Monday and then the pair put in gains for each of the next four days. That bullish run brought prices right back to a key zone of resistance. That resistance is holding for now around monthly highs; but the bigger question is whether buyers jump in to offer higher-low support, after which bullish trend potential becomes...
the Swiss Franc is backed by arguably the most dovish major central bank for current policy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a negative -0.75 percent benchmark for six years. This unusual policy stance was the result of a failed effort to maintain a floor for EURCHF. Since that extreme disruptive fallout, the exchange rate only briefly returned to...