Technical: Immediate term overbought with significant implied vol discount relative to 30 day realized vol. Stochastic oscillators confirm overbought conditions. Fundamental: Citi is a large holder of foreign, dollar denominated debt. Due to the strength of the dollar in the past quarter, I expect that FX will show significant headwinds in their earnings call on...
Not hard to believe, dropping from EV/EBITDA multiple of 110x to auto median multiple of roughly 10x. Take last earnings report with a grain of salt. Recognizing deferred revenue balances after model 3 deliveries + Chinese orders front running tariffs gave Tesla a short term boost in earnings, but I believe this is most likely a one off event. I expect Tesla to...
Interestingly enough, AMD always seems to catch a bid right before an economic meltdown. This company is extremely unimpressive, especially when compared to its peers. For this analysis, I looked at AMD against its comparable companies of NVDA, TXN, INTC, and TSM. Looking at AMD itself, this is another example of a false "growth" story valuation. With negative...
AMZN is perhaps the most crowded trade today. Alone, this company has provided 40%+ of S&P's gains in the past year, which is not sustainable long term. On the Weekly and Daily charts for AMZN, a series of bearish RSI divergences have formed while price has continue to move higher. Daily stochastic has topped off, and I believe there is a high probability of a...
The daily chart shows a series of bearish RSI divergences while price has continued to move higher. Volume is not confirming higher highs and stochastic is topping off, indicating a high probability we are at the top of this sequence. Weekly and monthly charts are also showing similar bearish RSI divergence patterns, foreboding that a future correcting wave will...
Technology has certainly been the market leader throughout the past decade, but I believe the most recent six month price action in the Nasdaq has been due to rotation out of emerging markets and into US tech stocks, namely Microsoft and Amazon. The Federal Reserve continues to take liquidity out of the market which is creating significant price volatility....
Title says it all. Medium term (3 - 4 month) price target of $23.54 per share. I plan on waiting for implied volatility to top off next week before opening December puts on Friday morning. I will monitor the performance of this trade.
Foreboding similarities between today and 1929...
Pretty straight forward opportunity to short 10Y treasuries here. I think many retail investors are unaware to the fact that the Fed will begin unloading $50B worth of treasuries per month beginning October 2018. These treasuries will need to find a home, and I don't think this is priced into the market. Below is more educational information of the crisis we are...
Apple is another extremely crowded trade that has moved well beyond its moving averages. There are a few different metrics I am looking at as I initiate this trade. Looking at comparable companies, I am seeing mobile device headwinds for AAPL, as they announce their quarterly results this afternoon. Most recently, Samsung saw a decline in mobile sales of 18% QoQ...
I'm definitely going to take a lot of heat for this one. I'm seeing significant long term weakness in the DJI. After reviewing several oscillators on longer term time intervals (ie. 2W, 1M, 3M 1.55% ), I have come to the conclusion that liquidity is drying up significantly in the market, and this has not been priced in. Looking at the broader macro economic...
I'm honestly surprised FB has come this far, for a company that saps productivity of humanity. Looking at longer term RSI and stochastic oscillators, I'm seeing bearish divergence patterns while price has been making higher highs, indicating that volume is not supporting price action. Weekly and monthly charts suggest support around $116 level, which is where my...
False breakout in price as RSI bearish divergence does not confirm higher highs.
Before I start, let's be clear that this is a VERY pessimistic view of what could happen, and chances are this situation may not occur. However, while this may have a low probability, investors should err on the side of caution in bear markets. Technical Analysis Let's begin with the monthly charts. Highlighted are the Elliot waves as well as a Fibonacci...
I'm not trying to spread FUD, but I want to make sure people are aware of what could happen. The daily chart indicates a head and shoulders movement, and I believe we could see price within the range of $6K - $8K. Take a look at the Stoch RSI and the MACD. Stoch RSI is about to cross over to bearish signals while the MACD is showing false bullish signs. While I...