Although Crude has broken below the multi-week trend line, I still have a feeling of a mission _un_accomplished. Still missing some sort of a wave 5, in any shape. It may take time for wave 5 to appear but it needs to happen. Without it there is still some residual buying momentum left in the market, which needs to be discharged otherwise risking a short squeeze.
Here's a quick labelling of S&P first wave of decline, we see the first minor impulse and a correction. All this is the most minor degree - there will be more, and we will see larger and longer movements as we see the decline unfold. Shorting right now is a good option, I placed my shorts using Sept'15 and Mar'16 futures, stops above the latest top. Since the end...
S&P reversed in May, and re-confirmed its reversal this week. Nikkei is approaching the reversal point just now. There is just one tiny subwave 5 left, in which the market may try to set a new high or match the previous one. After that we are going to observe a quick (1-2 months) retracement of the ending diagonal, travelling to 16500-17000. I think the first...
Hi Everyone! TSLA is my favorite company, I think the Elon is a genius and will take the company to the next level. Long live the guy! As an investor I will be certainly looking for an entry mid-end 2016, but not right now. I use EW analysis to back my judgement. The comments on the chart are self-sufficient. Questions, comments and likes are welcome ^)
Today the last upward impulse wave has completed and by now it has been almost fully retraced with a very strong down movement which really looks like an impulse. I expect it to hit the trend line again, have a dead cat bounce and then continue moving down. After the correction around the trend line is over, it will be a good shorting opportunity, and I would...
I took a look at AUDNZD trend of the last 4 years and saw a downward impulse in which we have completed wave 1, 2, 3 and are currently working out wave 4. Last time I looked at it I thought that wave 5 was also done, but it's not! The decline that started in Nov 2014 was actually a three, not a five. Therefore what happens now, is a counter-impulse in wave C of a...
In one of the earlier posts I suggested that USDJPY was about to reverse and go down. Not just yet. The down movement that currently happens lacks downward momentum and is therefore a correction. Once complete, it will be more than fully retraced by the larger trend which has started in wave 1 earlier in May and June. I would like to suggest that the shape of...
- GBPNZD is currently in wave 3 of a very strong impulse - No divergence on MACD implies upward movement to continue - Projected end of impulse at 2.50 based on 2.618 extension between previous trend breakout and end of wave 1.
Here's a close-up on the wave count of the last 5th wave of the rise. We really need one last push to the top before all waves are in place. The target of 21368 assumes equality of wave (iii) and wave (v) - and I hope we will not exceed it as otherwise wave (v) would become longer than (iii).
I am trying hard to identify a point of reversal of S&P and since I don't find any yet I decided to look at JPN225 for its wave count as well, as anyway the markets will all reverse at the same time. JPN waves seem a little bit clearer, at least there is an ending diagonal with a nicer wave structure than in S&P. I think there is still one wave up to go, possibly...
Just a great quote from a great all-timer book. Have a great week-end!
From EW structure it seems that Gold is completing a correction to the first wave of the descending impulse. The correction was expected to end at 1205.66 (classic 0.618 retracement, equality of A and C - all by the book). But no, the technical bounceback from that level did not result in a sustained decline, but instead started forming wave 4 of wave C. I expect...
In this post I want to analyze the wave structure of EURGBP of the last year so to get a feeling of the relative strength of both currencies in order to understand which one will have a larger downside potential against USD. It seems that we are working through the corrective wave 4 of the descending impulse. The correction may take some time and its structure is...
Starting April 13th we have seen a strong upward impulse in GBP, which completed at 1.5811. Then after a brief decline the ascending movement has resumed. Based on the wave structure the current ascending movement looks like an expanded flat correction that "jumps ahead of the trend". Its ascending B wave will be over quite soon and will give turn to a strong...
I think the correction of USDCAD is over, the next target is 1.32 which will correspond to another wave 5 of just another upper degree. Overall I think CAD is not reversing alone, we also observe the reversal of EURUSD (still need confirmation!) and also a suspiciously nice downward impulse has just happened in Crude which may ignite the next downwave. Looks like...
XAU has completed the first five of the correction, now in triangle, completing wave E. We need another five to finish the correction, so I expect the thrust out of triangle will deliver it. We will likely travel "into the price territory of wave 4 likely near its terminus" - approx. at 1203 where strong resistance also resides. I do believe this upward movement...
EURGBP seems to be working out a flat correction, a typical signature of it is wave B retracing 88.6% of wave A and both are zigzags. This is followed by an impulsive wave C which is supposed to be 1.382 or 1.618 of wave A. We have just completed subwave 1 of wave C and still have a lot of room to go. Aside from entering long on EURGBP, a few conclusion I draw...
It would be fun to see WTI at hitting or approaching 67 early next week. I don't believe it, but this is what wave count tells. Assuming the equality of wave 1 and 5 we get to roughly this number. Once wave 5 is complete, I expect the decline in oil to resume. So as USDCAD will shoot higher in sync.