I've been closely monitoring MSFT for the last month as I use it as an indicator of S&P reversal. MSFT has a very nice and clear wave structure which between 2000 and 2015 looks like a flat correction (wave A down do 14.87, wave B up to 49.51, retracing 88.6% of the initial decline). Wave C - still to be observed. I am watching for the last wave 5 of the last...
There is a strong correlation between CAD and Crude, which means that as Crude is preparing for another massive decline, so as CAD starting to weaken again agains USD, (USDCAD shooring higher). I expect the next stop to be at roughly 1.3250 (0.618 of the net run of wave 1-2-3), and I think there is a good opportunity to enter long position once the correction in...
In the last few weeks JPY has finally exited the contracted triangle which it had been tracing for a few months, squeezing some thrust thereafter, and reaching 125.845. What followed after is an initial wave of decline, followed by another more violent one. The increasing momentum of the decline make me think that this is not a mere correction, but the development...
Gold has completed the first wave of the downward impulse, and will likely continue its descent, which will be aligned with further strengthening of USD and decline in Crude. The correction in Gold is not finished yet and I expect a deeper retracement to occur during the next week, probably reaching 61.8%. I would not expect the movement to resume until mid next...
Oil is going higher in order to complete its wave 5 of the C wave of the correction. The target is 67.07 where wave 5 will be equal to wave 5. The correction in wave 4 seems to be over, delivering a complex nested zigzag-flat-flat.
A couple of weeks ago I published my view on S&P approaching collapse seen through MSFT stock wave structure. I maintain this view and actually have shorted S&P at 2132 on it's last peak. The preparation for the decline is taking more time, but it will happen and will start very soon. As noted, MSFT is approaching the end of B wave of the flat correction that we...
Folks, I don't want to summon false alarms here but I believe that we are just a few hours away from S&P crash. Today I decided to take a look at a few big stocks in order to see where we are in terms of wave completion and understand if a reversal of S&P is approaching. What took my attention is MSFT, which was approaching its 49.51 resistance. No big deal i...
It looks like the ending diagonal that's been unfolding since October 16th has now entered its final wave 5. Likely to have a throw-over above the upper channel line in a few days and then a very quick reversal to at least the point of departure: 1820. Watch the level 2134 very carefully: this is the level where the rising wave of 2008-2014 has 1.618 fibo...
Here's my interpretation of EUR correction which was developing since March 16th. - This looks like a flat correction with A, B waves completed and C wave completing its last 5th wave. - A and B were zigzags and C is a 5-wave impulse. - C wave seems to be running for 1.382 or 1.618 multiple of wave A. - Assuming equality of wave 1 and 5 the target for wave 5 could...
Below is my view on GBP based on EW analysis. The corrective move upwards seemed to be a double zigzag and is it over. The upward movement went through a series of three triangles, each delivering nice thrust. We know that triangles always precede the last motive wave, and since the latest wave 5 was fully retraced, the only movement that's ahead is down. In my...
Here's my view on Gold based on EW analysis. In my opinion the correction in Gold is far from complete as it seems that we are still tracing the first A-wave of the correction, which is a 5-wave formation which started at 1920. A correction can never be 5 waves, therefore we need at least another three and another five. I assume we are tracing a zigzag and wave...
Yesterday GBP has completed the formation of a beautiful triangle with exceptional upward thrush afterwards, which brought is to 1.5520. I suspect the upward movement was not wave 5 of the impulse, but rather wave A of C of a double zigzag that the market may be tracing. Therefore we need to closely watch the formation of the corrective pattern between 1.5415 and...
While the CNBC-driven public keeps buying the stocks because they are "still relatively cheap" the other few percent of those who understand that they are not are looking for a good entry in a short position on S&P. While S&P chart seems to be tracing an ending diagonal it still looks very fuzzy and the end of the ascending movement may be hard to spot in real...
Here's a revised version of EW markup of the movement we observed since mid March. Looks like we have a leading diagonal with a zigzag correction, which is now over. This markup follows all rules for the leading diagonals and suggests that we are in the beginning of wave 3 of the larger movement. The net run of wave 3-4-5 should bring us to approx 90.5.
I was trying to figure out the pattern of DXY rollback, and I think the picture shown here may be valid. This zigzag'ish movement we are observing since mid March may me a leading diagonal by means of which the market is showing its intention to develop a high-powered reversal. If the line of resistance is not broken we may expect DXY to be pushed to lower 96...
We are approaching what seems to be the end of Wave 5 of wave 5 of the whole movement that started back in July. GBP is already very resistant to furtner decline, EUR is still struggling, but I expect this is going to end very soon and we may see a very classy completion of wave 5 with a throw-over, followed by a massive correction to the range of upper 80s-lower...
WTI seems to be completing a flat correction with ending diagonal in wave C. I suspect this is going to be over in a matter of hours and we will see wave 3 unfold very fast with the targets of below 47. Entry: 50.60, SL = 50.85, TP = 46.5.
NZD has completed a leading diagonal which is now being followed by a brief correction. Since diagonals are always at the beginning of a bigger movement it is very likely that the upward movement will resume. What I like about leading diagonals is they are usually followed by a very shallow correction as most of the folks who wished to close their positions have...