USDCAD is most likely completing its B wave of a flat correction, and will soon reverse in a C wave. The divergence on MACD shows we have insufficient momentum to keep rising in wave 3 - so this is most likely a flat. Another possibility is that we are developing a rising 1-2-1-2 structure, but this will be clear once we see the nature of the downmove. If the...
Please see the comments on the chart.
I did some analysis on DXY and EURUSD this morning and realized that we are likely to see another swing high in EUR, which is supposed to start may be next week. Since Crude is extremely correlated with EUR or DXY it will make sense to suspect that Crude will also go higher once EUR reverses in Y wave. Please check EURUSD as a grey line on the chart - the...
(Note: because DXY index no longer has realtime data, I use USDOLLAR instead.) I literally broke my head trying to fugure out what DXY might be doing these last weeks and what the outcome could be. What's labelled on the chart is what I think the market is trying to tell us. We seem to be tracing a complex WXY structure with W flat wave completed on May 14th,...
Good morning! Wanted to share my wave update on USDJPY and supply some comments on the chart. The first impulse of upward wave 5 is complete, now enters a correction which is usually very deep for the first subwave. Note that wave 5 will be a zigzag because it is part of an ending diagonal. So we will have the total of 7 waves, not five. It's interesting to...
Good morning All! I would like to share with you my view on Gold vs EUR wave relationship, mainly, what going to happen in Gold and what kind of up- and down-swings might happen in EUR at the same time. EUR is a major part of DXY, so when EUR is down, USD is up, Gold is down and the opposite. (for as long as this correlation holds!) Gold is in its Wave 5 ending...
Here's a good short entry point for Nikkei. Watch all 5 waves of a C wave complete, and short on a breakdown of subwave 5.
USDCAD has almost completed two sets of five-wave upward moves. Further development is possible in two scenarios, both are perfectly feasible: 1) we continue moving upward - that would mean that wave (3) has started, followed by wave (5), target 1.3200 2) we fall back in wave C of in a flat correction correction. (we already had three waves down, then three waves...
(this is my first multi-chart post, hope all goes well )) Good morning! I would like to share my longer term look at USDGBP, understand its future movements and relate the movement in this pair to other currencies and gold. USDGBP collapsed from 2.11 to 1.35 in 2008 in a large impulsive A wave. What followed after was a multi-year congestion in which we continue...
Following up on the attached earlier chart - the ending diagonal has been confirmed by wave 4 touching 122 (end of wave 1). There is already a first impulse up that happened today (visible on 5 min chart). It's currently working out a flat correction. I believe this is the start of the last wave 5 going up.
I believe the first complete down-looking impulsive subwave is now in place, and we can see its internal structure and properly label the waves using MACD reading. The 3rd waves produce the strongest peaks on MACD and the 5th wave usually lags behind in momentum, delivering a weaker peak. This is then followed by a correction in wave 2 or 4 of a larger degree. An...
The Russian Rouble is a high volatility speculative vehicle which prepares for another round of weakening caused by its underlying deteriorating economy, cheaper oil and generally increasing amount of risk associated with this currency. The first impulse of the latest upward wave brought us to 57.15, the target of the next higher degree impulse could be approx 68...
USDCAD is highly correllated to Crude, and its wave structure is pretty clear. Wave 3 has been completed mid march, the correction in wave 4 is completed, and the first impulse of wave 5 is over. Now that the correction in wave 5.2 completes, the upward movement will resume. It is unclear if the correction is over or not. It may well be over, but depending on...
Good morning! S&P has reversed. I fact it topped back in May which I correctly forecasted using MSFT stock, but more proof is coming this week. I just wanted to share the full labelling starting from 2000 - quite interesting to look at it. One thing that is striking when we look at the structure: there has been no upward looking impulse since we topped in 2000....
Good morning everyone! I looked at USDJPY and realized that the market is likely tracing an ending diagonal which started once we exited the triangle formation in February. Ending diagonals consist of three advancing waves and two corrective waves, all five waves being zigzags. Turns out we have already completed Wave 1 which was a zigzag, Wave 3, which was also a...
Here's another evidence that EUR has some upside vs other currencies in DXY in the next 2 weeks. In EURJPY we see a clear incomplete impulse, missing wave 5. The wave needs to complete, no EUR downtrend will to happen until all buying momentum is discharged by the market.
USDJPY has failed to form an upward looking impulse for now and is likely to continue correcting itself down. Corrections are three-wave structures which tend to be symmetric across their B or X waves (opposite to impulse waves, which are about advancing price to new levels). From that pov the correction in USDJPY looks incomplete and we need another leg down in...
Here's an update on EURUSD. I am currently looking for a short entry. I believe the three-month correction is already over and more weakness in EUR will continue to develop in the coming couple of months. The target is 0.9941 - at least! I think the first subwave of the decline is already developing, but as usual there is a high chance of a deep correction, which...