If it is true that history repeats itself then keep an eye on the monthly chart in the euro. This chart shows the euro establishing a long term low. If the previous uptrend from the low at B to the high at C were to be replicated then the target can be projected at point E. Since this is a forecast with a horizon some point next decade, the focus can be...
THE BIG PICTURE: A key development is the Bear Trap that occurred at point C where the market failed to break below point A. This suggests that 1.25 is a major level. Strong support presents itself after taking a look at a couple fib extension levels. The first is to measure the low in 2000 to the high in 2008 and project that measurement from the 2012 low. ...
THE BIG PICTURE: What appears to be a retracement in segment AB can be measured with a fib extension tool. That measurement can be projected from point C to determine a level where the current long term move may culminate. Segment AB, when measure sets up for a target somewhere around 0.67. For the moment, price has to deal with an important level in the 61.8%...
THE BIG PICTURE: Confluence appears at point C after using a couple of fib tools. The 61.8% level is revealed after measuring segment A to B with the fib retracement tool. Next take the fib extension tool to measure segment w to x and project from y to get the 1.61% extension level at point z. These two levels line up right around the 104 level, so any rally...
THE BIG PICTURE: Two levels are apparent after using the fib extension tool. The first is to measure segment A to B and forecast the 100% extension from point C to get the projected point D just beyond 121. Price is trading just beyond that level at the moment in what can be thought of as an overshoot of the level. Again price was able to penetrate the...
THE BIG PICTURE: First to note is the failure to surpass point A which has major implications the longer price stays below that level. The aggressive move from A to B took a matter of about a year and a half. With that model to copy, the move from point C looks to terminate sometime in late 2016. Take the fib extension tool to measure point A to B and project...
THE BIG PICTURE: An aggressive move from point A to B is projected off point C with the fib extension tool to find point D where symmetry suggests that there will be a culmination of the down trend should the double top at level C hold. A double top at Point C suggests more downside is imminent. Symmetry is visible when taking the fib extension tool. Start the...
THE BIG PICTURE: First thing to notice is that point C is right around a 50% fib level of segment AB. While the highs at point A had a clear cut head and shoulders reversal, recent highs have yet to provide a definitive reversal formation around point C despite developing distribution. The average percentage change of the retracements for segment BC was around...
THE BIG PICTURE: Something that jumps out is the seemingly sideways development of this pair going back to the early nineties. Price has been relatively constrained between extremes where point A broke the previous extreme but point B held above the previous low. Point A broke above the previous high by about 3% while the low at point B came down to within...
THE BIG PICTURE: An important observation is that point A barely broke the high from the late nineties by just under 3% before the bears were able to take control. The basis for the current long term biases stems from that failure point. After establishing the peak at point A, the first impulse of the current downtrend broke the old 1.50 level of support in...
THE BIG PICTURE: For this chart there are a couple fib levels that around which price is trading. The Singapore Dollar is approaching a long term level which was support in 1994 and held for a couple years. That level was finally broken with conviction in 2010 and as the saying goes, the old level which was support is now expected to provide resistance. ...
THE BIG PICTURE: Supporting the latest move in the Dow is the legacy up trend line which is approaching a century in duration. The current up swing is just another thrust or impulse higher. It's apparent that the old highs have been surpassed enough to justify a buy signal in anticipation of a major move. Each major previous bull market lasted at least 30...
THE BIG PICTURE: Tops can take a long time to develop. Note here that Bonds are developing a double top at the moment which encourages more selling. A target of the trend line in the 130s is a short term target with the 124 zone ultimately being a place where the buyers attempt to re claim the market. The expectation based on the potential DXY short should...
THE BIG PICTURE: Long term analysis of oil shows a measured move developing which suggests that the down move is not yet complete. Measuring the percentage move of A to B shows a 71% retracement which if projected from point C has the target around the $40 zone. As for the duration of the retracement at 98 bars, confluence shows a window of opportunity around...
THE BIG PICTURE: Lengthy consolidations are a part of how markets develop. The log chart is used on a monthly time frame. Measuring the move from point A to B and projecting it from the low at point C provides some interesting levels where Gold has responded. There are two important levels which have impacted price as of recently. It appears as if the all...
THE BIG PICTURE: A measurement of the down leg dating from 2002 to 2008 produces a 50% fib level right around 1.27. On two occasions the loonie found the sellers willing to overcome the buying at that important fib line. Something else to note is the symmetrical appearance of a potential move away from point D which would replicate the move from point B. The...
THE BIG PICTURE: The fib extension tool was used to measure points A to B. A forecast from the low at point C places the 100% level of the fib extension at 1.37.14 which seems a long distance away. Secondly the length of time it took to complete segment A to B was measure as well. The move was complete after about 38 bars. Taking a clone of the first...
THE BIG PICTURE: A measurement of the down leg dating from 2002 to 2008 produces a 50% fib level right around 1.27. On two occasions the loonie found the sellers willing to overcome the buying at that important fib line. Something else to note is the symmetrical appearance of a potential move away from point D which would replicate the move from point B. The...