Already posted on this one, but here is an alternative view leading to a similar conclusion. We have a H&S top in play with a neckline around the $4000 area, the measured completion of which takes us back to $3500 (assuming $4000 breaks rather than holds).
I provided a few charts last week which showed the pattern topping and a divergence appearing. This has manifested in a sharp move down yesterday (although in Bitcoin terms not the usual massive sell-off). I still think this has a bias lower, although $4000 is a strong psychological level now. A decent pull back and strong next leg up would take us back to...
The H&S set up I posted yesterday failed & we have now failed a number of times in the $4250-$4400 area. There is an emerging negative divergence which makes me think we are at the top of this wave and will see a correction soon. I think this will be toward the $3600 area.
Big candle today moved it from 75th to 100th percentile in this pitchfork. We are now at the top of the channel again. Anything above -$17.20 / out of the channel I'd consider bullish and be looking long towards $17.60
This could move all the way to the bottom of the channel. Support for pushing higher was lost and the price broke down today. There is an outside chance this stabilises around $47.32, but odds favour a sharper move down to one of the two lower fibs - probably where they intersect with the pitchfork. Target #1 =$45, target #2 =$42
RSI divergence here is quite long term but it suggests to me that a pull back is due so that we may see a further fail of the ATH level. If this is the case I'd expect to see a return to the bottom of the channel & bounce back higher from there.
This is currently constrained by the 200DMA at 7.6p which it has been tightly tagging for a few days. We are also hitting the top of the 75th percentile line of the channel indicated which also looks like it's providing a possible resistance.
I am looking for this to break the 200DMA as a catalyst and then take an impulse move up to the top of the channel at 9p....
RSI and channel have both bottomed and the price has started to move upward towards what I think will be the top of the channel at around 3.0. What it does after that is still up for debate, the channel and techs suggest there may be a further leg down here, but seasonality (and weather) will come into play at some point with gas typically having a strong...
Broken the near-term downward trend and on the daily chart has broken and is trading above then200DMA. Looking for this to now out in a higher, high - something over 976 and enter the long trade looking for at least 1005 which is the 50% Fib of the most recent low/high phase and a key pivot level.