As things stand right now, it looks like the next move in precious metals is going to be sharply up unless dollar does some trick. World is now peacefully accepting the reality that no matter what, the rates are going to be lower. US treasury yields can't escape the malaise and savers are going to be punished hard. If Gold and Silver can't be tamed by strong...
An urge to break away is normal but NIFTY can't do much until the parent of the kid let it run away. S&P 500 is not breaking out in hurry and NIFTY is attached to the hip. Only difference is that S&P 500 emini futures is pure technical trade where every tick is there for easy grab while NIFTY is little sentimental with big opening push-pull adjustment and then...
Price action says it all. Something can't go down even after dovish events then naturally the path of least resistance is higher. RBA and RBNZ should stop fighting the losing battle and be at peace with the reality. Yields from developed nations aren't stopping from downward spiral and there is nothing these antipodean countries can do as long as they offer the...
Shocker NFP has again messed up many calculations. Unpredictability and possibility of huge reaction afterwards makes it really difficult to trade such data points before the release. That's the reason we keep the strategy on hand but never place orders until picture is clear, unless it is far end of extreme price action. Short dollar trade, which was very...
This is totally based on oil's next move. Near 40, Oil is in neutral territory. Earlier we mused about buying the dip in oil near 40 but still haven't done it because from price action it looked like we could have got it cheaper near 38. But unfortunately, oil is now back above 41. Since 42 is the resistance, we are less inclined to jump in. Also today is NFP...
Bank of England has cut 0.25 basis point to bring the rate to 0.25 from 0.50 and little addition to QE today. So now the question is, whether it is enough to plummet the pound below 1.30 line. Judging from the initial price action, it doesn't look like but it is too early though. If 1.30 doesn't blow out today then be ready for the squeeze part two with GBP/USD....
Indices are showing early signs of fatigue but one needs to be careful selling into the weakness. Because if 2120 holds in S&P 500 ( USA Index ) then it confirms the breakout and short term direction might be higher. Chances of quick meltdown are always there but when world is awash in easy money and still more to come, it has greater probability of sideways...
When a rate cut by central bank produces meager 50 pip drop and that also doesn't last for next hour then you know what is the path of least resistance for currency direction. Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) cut the rates by 25 basis point to 1.50 and AUD/USD is still positive for a day as of now. We are recommending long AUD/USD and NZD/USD for months and you...
Only word describes cement companies' stocks en masse is - UP ! There has been lot of recent activities in cement sector and all points to bullish development. Even taking a look at your surrounding will tell you that structures of concrete are rising every day without any slowdown in sight. For Indian stock market, consumer goods ( now the Fad is for organic...
ICICI Bank stock is down about 2.5 % today but it is usual jitters around result release. Again there will be some chatter around its roughly 30,000 crore NPA and other blights. But as we have harped on many times, who cares about those problems?! These are typical stocks you buy low and sell high without asking much questions. You can read the reason in...
Larsen & Toubro's stock has relatively easy flight from 1200 to 1600, but now next 100 / 150 something points may not come that easy. So here again, preferred strategy is to sell covered calls against the position or if you really want to short it then buy puts during the spike higher near 1700 / 1800. You might have noticed that we seldom advise to short sell...
Big events like NFP, FOMC, ECB meting etc has the power to inflict a long lasting blow. Yesterday's Fed meeting outcome was nothing new but we need to pay attention to the direction currency pairs take after such events to get a clue. For other Forex pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD we are very clear about buying the dips and no need to think twice as long as it...
Gold trade in essence is the fear + yield trade. Currently Fed carry more weight in dictating Gold's direction because gold is priced in dollars and dollar's value is being tuned by Fed's experiments. So in gold's pricing equation, fear factor is temporary but in long term it will settle in proportion to the rates. Earlier we were able to capitalize on the...
Central bank circus is back in the town and it will bring usual attractions. Whipsaw all around with counter intuitive currency canter. If you chase the price action then you will always be surprised ( often in a bad way ) and market will keep you guessing. Media outlet will keep on pouring the information which 'makes sense' but has little trading value...
India's one of the biggest drug maker is going to release quarterly results soon and its stock is already feeling the jitters. Analysts and news papers will annotate the appropriate headline but someone who is aware about the technicals will of course be taking profit at this levels. A solid up trend from the beginning of 2009 is still in effect but it is...
What the stimulus size from Abe - Kuroda duo will be at the end of the week is debatable and guessing games are on by banks. Estimates ranges from 10 to 30 trillion but who knows ?! Can't trade on a guess work. But there will be really good trading opportunities in USD/JPY in coming sessions -before BOJ as well as after BOJ. Let's see what are the possible...
NPA? What NPA? It is really baffling to the investors who see huge figures - thousands of crore Rupees - being thrown at them by news papers and other media about the growing Non-Performing Assets (NPA) portfolio of large banks and still their stocks keep on rising ! Well to that point, if market is really about that simple correlation then wouldn't be the...
Crude oil is breaking down for last two days and seems like it can reach our final short target of 42 soon. What we really need is a clean break of 44. So caution is advised for new comers because if crude is not able to settle below 44 then it can spike higher to shake weak shorts. Besides, as soon as Crude slides near 41 / 42, we will be switching the side to...