If you consider the argument about medium term divergence between BOE and ECB then you can see the clear EUR/GBP trade. Pound ( GBP/USD ) is expected to fall at least 10 big figure in near future and until Euro catches up, there is still time for EUR/GBP long trade. We have maintained the long bias for EUR/GBP from last month but unfortunately weren't filled...
Whether GBP/USD will go to 1.20 or EUR/USD to 1.16 or AUD/USD to 0.7600 is arguable. But what if there is a pair which has no other path but down without any argument in favor. USD/JPY has nothing working in its favor. Why downward path is of the least resistance? - BOJ can't do much as of now. - Abenomics is out of arrows or soon will be. - BOJ tried to...
Silver is ready to take on $20 level. An attempt to break that resistance might be thwarted initially but seems like this could has silver lining ;) We dabbled with half hearted longs near 15 level at the beginning of the year but the confirmation of solid support at 16 has liven up the things. Silver has traded roughly around $5 during 90s but that was so...
Brexit volatility caused make it wobble a little but now crude oil is back near 50. We are proposing pretty similar playbook which gave us good two trades last week. Most indices have made a huge comeback in last two days with FTSC 100 ( London Stock Market ) covering entire Brexit drop and some more ! What a circus ! But hey, this is the type of market we are...
It is a tale of once burned twice shy. But in this case, investors have been burned not just once but multiple times. One day it looks like all doom and gloom, and the very next session market comes roaring back. Then again it acts like stuck in the mud next day and can't go higher either. Even though short side is more favorable, traders are shy to go all in...
Tata group's flagship companies are in cross hair because of its UK connections. Tata Steel is the example of ambitious plan going awry and Tata Motors is going to be questioned because of its Land Rover automobiles. Tata Motors It's a headache to deal with unexpected situations for a company like Tata Motors which has big aspirations and determined to create...
Tata group's flagship companies are in cross hair because of its UK connections. Tata Steel is the example of ambitious plan going awry and Tata Motors is going to be questioned because of its Land Rover automobiles. Tata Steel Selling metal companies was the fundamental trade for last couple of years. Nobody was sparred. Steel glut was/is obvious - thanks to...
EUR/GBP has been up a lot. It reflects that at least in short term pound is going to suffer more than Euro. But in reality a divorce hurts both parties involved at least for the short term. Eventually someone will benefit / suffer more than other but it is difficult to pick the winner / loser right now. Right now everybody is focusing on UK but after the...
Opinions are still divided and there isn't any fundamental clarity about what is the path forward for British economy and the pound. Market has done what it is supposed to do - sell first and ask questions later. Now GBP/USD will gyrate between 1.30 - 1.40 for coming sessions until we get at least a blur picture to look forward and then the sailing towards next...
Finally a big jolt to wake NIFTY up and start rolling. We really lament the fact that NIFTY didn't came close enough to our short entries. It managed to bounce near 8300 but we were waiting for it to hit 8400 to go short with conviction and less risk. But anyway, this is trading ! It is not the last trade and we will get plenty of opportunities in coming days,...
Yet again sound technical analysis has prevailed against turbulent times when it's difficult to see the path forward. We have outlined our Gold trading playbook several times here ( please click on the link to check it out ) and it is very simple basic technical analysis which you can do at home ! In last post we mentioned how we are short gold and looking for...
Finally today is the day when over hyped and exaggerated event - Referendum for Brexit - will start. We are closing or have closed all our positions because of event as well as liquidity risk. There is no point in carrying positions during the madness which may ensue the event. We are still firmly in dollar selling camp, which is evident from our positions and...
We always have kept a soft corner for Pharma sector in India. To outperform broader market indices with quality portfolio, one must have banks and Pharmaceutical companies in it. The word 'Quality' is very important here. We are not talking about loading up the portfolio with junk companies which can go 5 to 500 in a week and come crashing back the next day. ...
Barring any surprise from Brexit, the strategy to trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD remains the same - Buy the dip. One may ask, if we are looking for 1.1600 in EUR/USD , 0.7600 in AUD/USD and 0.7250 for NZD/USD then why not just buy and hold it. Valid question but unfortunately the market condition we are in, doesn't really permit to just buy/sell and forget. ...
When there is no news or big fundamental events to whipsaw the market, it quietly sails around known technical levels. Let me produce the same crude oil chart we published along with a trade idea about a month ago to show how good technical support / resistance levels work. Last week we were short crude and long USD/CAD. Then switched the sides as it reached the...
Throw any international or domestic good or bad news at NIFTY and it just doesn't want to budge. This month is already shaping up as one of the lowest range month in recent history and kind of trader's nightmare. You can trade it if it goes up or down but how could you trade if it just doesn't move at all ! Well, one may argue that by selling options premium but...
This is what we have to say about Mr. Raghuram Rajan's decision to leave Reserve Bank Of India ( RBI ) after the end of his current term in September. This is what happens when you state the obvious to politicians. He is the only central bank chief with chutzpah to tell governing politicians that central bank can't cure it all with just cutting rates ! At some...
We are seeing really good trend trading in both highly volatile and lucrative commodities - Gold and Crude. We are actively trading both commodities from long as well as short side by leaning against good support / resistance levels. There are many investors out there just happy owning gold and hoping for something good to happen to their investment. Of course...