-High has already reached due to the previous RBA news (3.5% interest rate story)
-DXY at a pretty strong support level
-RBA is actually dovish (not intend to raise the rate in the short term), market overreacted
-slow stoch looks good
-target to at least previous pivot point , or even lower
Prepare to long USDJPY
- DXY has just completed a BAT pattern, facing several important support levels, including 200WMA
- AB=CD pattern in USDJPY
- Several important support levels to note, including the cloud support not shown in the chart
- 1h looks like building a base, 4h below cloud, 1d facing cloud support & trendline support
Trade what you see. :)
There are actually several reasons for long this pair (even if I am holding my long USDCAD position, which i have moved my stop to BE lvl)
1. BoJ is the most dovish central bank for now, while BoC is the surprisingly most hawkish (with the plummeting crude and housing market problem domestically). This is also the reason why USDCAD dropped so much these weeks.
Carney dovish, cable got a hit. But compared to Kuroda, seems to be less dovish.
This cross just tested a major long-term MA and a TL. Also, it just walked out of the downward TL in the events like UK general election surprising result with a hung parliament. The Brexit talk is in the process right now.
So it seems to be quite solid. But i don't want to long...
Short-term AB=CD pattern finished. Building a bottom here. Thinking long.
Long term potential AB=CD first part finished. at 0.618 level. Should be a decent try area.
- FED hawkish last week. Balance sheet reduction in talk right now. Should have much more clear image going forward. As long as the hiking is still expected, still want to long USD going...
BoC hawkish. Extremely strong CAD yesterday. But still quite before FOMC
1.618 extension right now, exactly on 100 WMA.
Plan is really small pos long right now, add another long portion around support level at the bottom.
Expecting FED would be a bit more hawkish this Wed.