Daniel_Urdaneta

Daniel_Urdaneta

Since all the rumours of ECB QE were sold, and the actual thing was announced on early February, EUR/USD has been trading rangebound throughout 2015 with most of the price action developed in the 1,08-1,12 band. Hindsight is 20/20, but the best trades this year have been to buy the lows and sell the highs; and there's reason to believe this will hold for the...

Daniel_Urdaneta

Notes on chart. I'm posting it again to get the trade more clear with stops/targets. Will play with USO since don't have a futs account. I'll go there in 2 tranches: 1. Immediate: Buying at WTI 44, target 50.75, stop 40.01 (def won't risk losing 40-handle on WTI - LOTS of negative momo are still around). 2. Contigent: Buying at spot if, at the end of August...

Daniel_Urdaneta

Notes on chart. Def a risky play and based almost solely on technicals. I'd play it on USO but CL futures should give the most accurate exposure. Good luck!!

Daniel_Urdaneta

We are forced to run a net long position in EUR currency due to cash flow requirements. The entry at 1.1060 seems to be well positioned. Fundamentals in EUR are terrible, but technicals are suggesting a clear uptrend in the coming months. There is also a clear net short positioning by specs that has been squeezed during the past 2 months alongside alleged Central...

Daniel_Urdaneta

Notes on chart. It's pretty hard to reverse the bearish trend without any positive headlines from Athens, imo. Brace yourselves for some more vol..

Daniel_Urdaneta

Notes on chart. Fundamentals on oil are terrible and high 61s was a big resistance line. The uptrend was lost last friday (in our view). Targets based on pivot points. DXY strength crucial to bring this down..

Daniel_Urdaneta

Tomorrow the capital markets are gonna get a pleasing vol boost on the back of FOMC day. Although there are no surprises expected on this meeting (the most hawkish forecasters still got June as the day of the first rate hike), cues on the liftoff date and the "dot plot" (FFR projections) will move markets big time in either direction. I will bet on the long EUR...

Daniel_Urdaneta

I've started trading again EUR/USD spot for a little while now, since SPY has gotten choppy lately, and have gotten a couple calls alright. I'm gonna risk to post one of these in here. I'm mildly bullish on EUR given broad weakness on the dollar and supportive technicals (esp. a clear uptrend in RSI). 1.1500 seems to be the next line of resistance - I still...

Daniel_Urdaneta

(Disclaimer: I have posted several short ideas on ES/SPY/SPX since the start of the year - I have played some of them for quick profits, also have gotten burned a couple times; it's safe to conclude that so far, the bullish trend hasn't been broken, but hasn't accelerated either. And even if the S&P 500 just made a new closing high today, it's still stuck in the...

Daniel_Urdaneta

(THIS IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE OTHER ONE DOESN'T HAVE OBV OR SPY TARGETS. SORRY!) Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale: 1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks...

Daniel_Urdaneta

Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale: 1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks in P/E ratios, even after the steep outperformance of DAX and NKY (among others)...

Daniel_Urdaneta

First of all, kudos to all of those who rode yesterday's rally!! I rode it with good size and closed near the close sequentially, around 210.50s in average exit price. On wednesday 18th, the FOMC committee communicated two big shifts in its forward guidance regarding the interest rate path: 1. Lowering the Fed Funds Rate forecast for the end of 2015 (from 1,125%...

Daniel_Urdaneta

This is clearly a contrarian, and potentially very painful trade. I'd say is best to play it with options - implied vol is at the year's lows and you will have limited downside on the position. But for those trading cash SPY, like me at the moment, here's my rationale for a short: Technicals: - We are close to getting overbought (Daily RSI is hovering around the...

Daniel_Urdaneta

After riding the monday-tuesday rip higher (Kudos for those who BTFD @198!), now I opened a short at today's last minutes of trading. Stop: 206.50 (in case we are breaking out); limit: a retest of the 200 psychological Pivot Point. The rationale behind this trade is mostly technical: the triangle pattern forming in SPY, suggesting indecision regarding the future...

Daniel_Urdaneta

I opened a long position in SPY at the friday's crazy sell-off close (heard some chatter of end of month index rebalancing, and given the crazy spike in crude oil, these prices aren't confirming the support break that many people wish for, in my view). I base this trade on some positives the market doesn't seem to be taken into consideration, and could lift...

Daniel_Urdaneta

Notes on chart. I still think there's downside risk on SPY, but I will wait for some more price action to go on before entering again.

Daniel_Urdaneta

Update from my previous post. The factors I quoted for this trade are still in place, so I had no reason to exit my initial short position. But I shorted more stock at yesteday's opening bounce, realizing a nice 5 dollar per share profit! Keep in mind some interestting levels: 200 (S1 on Fibo points and psychological support/resistance), 196.60 (200-day MA),...

Daniel_Urdaneta

I reinstated my short on SPY this Friday at the open, after riding the first down-and-up wave of the year. My rationale: Technicals: RSI divergence on since the early December highs; strong rejection of the Pivot point at the 205.50 area, 206 seeming to be the area of strong selling pressure. The market bounced off the Ichimoku Cloud top on Tuesday, but it seems...