My thinking is as follows: 1- GBPUSD over bought at current levels 2- 0.786 retracement level = 1.4353 3- Currently finding resistance at previous support levels 4- The chart pattern does look like a head & shoulder on the longer term 5- 200 Week MA = 1.437 6- The potential wave counts illustrated supports a down turn into a lower low in 12 to 18 months In the...
Normally the dollar index follows the US 10 year yield pretty closely. Since December there have been a massive divergence. Which trend is correct? $ to low or the yields to high? My view based on how oversold the dollar is and how it has been hammered over the past year but even more so over the past 3 months the $ is very close to turning around. This will...
A few key notes: 1- most overbought in 10 years. 2- COT contracts out at all time high with commercials in most bearish position in 20 years 3 - Long term support trend line was broken and is being retested at the moment 4- 100 month MA at 1.255 5- 0.618 retracement level = 1.2598 6- The US 10 yield at 4 year high but for the past 2 months there has been a massive...
A different view from my earlier posting with Potential wave counts and retracement levels
See below for a different view as well as a posting from Oct 2017 with more comments. It could be close to a bottom with next lower levels at 87.26 and the 84 Lets see when the $ decides to wake up
Historically gold heads downwards before the FMOC meeting and then rally up afterwards. At 1331.56 it would have retraced 0.786 but could potentially head for 1342.67 where a gap was formed around 2017 Sept 08.(look at the 4hr graph) As part of the bigger picture move it could potentially break below 1200 in 2018 before the rally towards 1400+ starts
See link below from oct 2017. Still seems like oil is heading for 76. The chart above is updated to fit the actuals of the original posting Crude should be close to completing wave 3, could be around 66 before a correction down to +/- 55 before heads back up to complete wave 5 of 4
Below a medium term view looking at the possibility of this being part of primary wave 4 heading for 65 to 76...?! Also below a previous posting with a bit more commentary
the market should trend on up in an impulsive manner. Trade above the 51.42 high would open the possibility that the next leg up is underway . Resistance above 51.42 is around 52.06. Trade above the 52.86 rebound high should strengthen the bullish case. Support comes in around 50.55-50.00 and then 49.13, which should hold.
Important to keep the bigger picture in mind especially if you consider the weekly view below. On the daily chart I have explained that the current retrace have travelled slightly more than double that of the previous retrace. There could still be some upside to the 0.5 retracement level and probably 1.296 should it head up The pair is very overbought and have...
The pair is in the midst of sideways, corrective price action , most likely taking the form of a triangle. For this to play out 1.5075 should remain intact and the eventually push through 1.4443
Although there is room to move up to 1.275 or even 1.282 this seems to be a low risk area to short. It will add to the case if it stays below the 100 day MA around 1.267 If you are not certain best to stay on the sidelines
DXY satisfied minimum expectations @ 91.01, but still lacks evidence that a bottom is in. At this stage the $ index remains vulnerable. At 90.12 wave C would travel 1.618 times wave A. ECB this week and a potential rate hike increase in the UK in November could lead to this path
The medium term view seems clear which is heading for 115 to 116 but in the short term not so much, for me anyway. The pair is at a juncture where it can shoot up to 114 soon or it could go back to around 111.4 before the breakout resumes. Lets see which lane she picks. For now I have a short in at 113.4 and an order pending at 114.3 Will look at potential long...
There is no evidence that the move up is complete. We could see it turn down at around 1.162 or close to 1.16 where after we should expect a swift move down