EdwinPus

EdwinPus

Cannot understate the importance of the treasury market and how powerful this chart is.

EdwinPus

Trendlines define markets, as seen in the last one these were very respected. We're now at the breakout point, which means we are rejected or close above, retest and then resume for a blow off.

EdwinPus

Look how strong the correlation is between 2y/10y spread and interest rates in the last two decades. Once it starts peaking watch it roll over slowly, a pause, usually indicates the last stages.

EdwinPus

As seen here we can expect pivots once we have a divergence appearing at the spread, usually the indices lag and follow only once it starts free falling. Something to watch, another great indicator.

EdwinPus

Let's see if it's accurate in the future since right now it looks like the mad market continues.

EdwinPus

QQQ versus equal weight QQQE describing the market breadth for PA relationship junkies like me. Also a great indicator, albeit in it's short price action history and sometimes lagging.

EdwinPus

Touched a significant support area, can consolidate for months however and price action still can lead further, nevertheless this indicator implies that long term positioning is unattractive.

EdwinPus

Richest spread when it comes to the amount of information we have since they both trade to early 20th century. Ask in the comments if you want me to expand on the chart.

EdwinPus

Unless we break out above the current resistances. Basically means that QQQ might experience a bigger selloff than the SPX, if this resistance holds. A close above would mean it's invalidated.

EdwinPus

I've made it simple this time, chart explains itself

EdwinPus

Albeit a bit laggy in some cases, it signaled it on daily and weekly (currently above monthly, which we need to scale down to to save the bearish thesis).

EdwinPus

We've beaten a bunch of bearish resistance and according to some technicals are in a bull market, however I'm still waiting for a monthly close above 4250, including the closes for this and next week (if we manage to pull above next stop is late 4400's. Day trading is lucrative at this stage so no big biases to either side when it comes to short term plays.

EdwinPus

So, in my previous idea, I was too fixed on 2008 scenario bear market trendlines. Obviously we didn't get rejected there, on weekly timeframes as well, it seems we're dealing with a potential 2000 market range, if that's the case then these levels should be observed in case someone's profit taking.

EdwinPus

With all bear market resistances in place, putting everything into perspective. Draw your own conclusions.

EdwinPus

NDQ still rubbing it's 2008 resistance, this will be a pivotal point nevertheless, with megacaps overbought I would have a short bias, instead of a long one.

EdwinPus

It was a good run, now you're overextended and have unfinished business below

EdwinPus

If we get rejected and only if bunch of bearish catalysts start kicking in. A bit extreme and biased, I know but nevertheless enjoy the play function to see how it has panned out, will update if we close the yellow monthly resistance above and risk manage accordingly.

EdwinPus

Decent RR, if stopped out, re entry at the top of the range, in the trade for the last two months so still patiently waiting for this one.