Exsilium

Exsilium Updated 

Yesterday I plotted a Wave 3/C target as 0.52361 and price hit 0.51978, very near that target. The trick now is to figure out if this is Wave 4, or a new Wave 1 down. My entry point was going to be at the 0.382 fib of Wave 3 which would be at 0.49312, but there are a few things I am worried about and want to watch for confirmations before I buy more here. BTC...

Exsilium

The violation of 0.45 was a difficult thing to digest and we are in this difficult to plot no-mans land. The general consensus is that BTC will rise to above 7000, potentially to 7700. If we correlate this to XRP we would see 0.55-56. This lines up with the potential impulse wave plotted in green. This could finish the correction wave of the higher degree (not...

Exsilium

The following analysis isn't going to be particularly helpful. Basically, from my point of view, 2+2 is no longer 4. What I can tell you is this; buy. Why? Because I truly believe in XRP and Ripple as a whole. There is some major traction in users of Ripple products and that will inherently increase the value of XRP. Let me put it another way, this next paycheck.....

Exsilium Updated 

Pennants and Triangles are very similar formations with some key differences. Pennants are considered shorter term, while Triangles are longer term. Pennants are also usually defined by a surge-like flagpole and are usually formed during strong trends. The exit of either formation is also different, where the Pennant exit will move the length of the flagpole, and...

Exsilium Updated 

It looks like the 2nd scenario I plotted yesterday is in play, with the price dipping below 0.47 to a low of 0.45. Until the price raises above 0.496 the near-term bias is neutral, and Id like to see 0.56933 for a mid-term bullish trend signal. Right now we are still in an Intermediate Correction Wave after the completion of the Intermediate Impulse Wave...

Exsilium

Im getting a lot of push from other chart analyzers that were going lower, that my current analysis is silly. Elliot Wave theory says that every impulse wave structure is followed by a corrective wave structure. While there are a very large number of potential correction wave formations, the simplest of those is the ABC correction wave. At this point in time we...

Exsilium Updated 

The 2018 low of 0.459 was breached and rebounded... twice, over the last 16 hours. The last rebound was 0.04 and is a bullish engulfing bar, altogether a very strong bullish signal IMHO. This would mark the end of Minor Wave 5 and would now start the correction waves. Price has to go above Minor Wave 4 at 0.496 to indicate a potential new bullish impulse series,...

Exsilium Updated 

We are on the precipice, currently testing the bottom trend-line of the Bear Flag plotted yesterday. A break of this should lead to at test of the 0.459 low of the year. Standard technical analysis of a bear flag says the pole should repeat, which means we would be looking at 0.39. However, 0.459 is a pretty big line in the sand and a pause there should be...

Exsilium Updated 

I left the bullish divergence lines I drew (cyan) in my previous analysis since I was called out about my hanging onto it. The divergence played out and we are looking at a 0.06-7 bounce already. I feel the need to remind everyone that my analysis isnt meant for long term, or even intermediate term, but generally less than a week, and even more so, 2-3 days. So,...

Exsilium Updated 

I apologize that I was not active during this dump, really bad timing as I have been at the Cisco Live conference. In my last analysis I put a bunch of trendlines in place, a break of which would signal direction. As you can see from this chart, once the price broke down past that bottom trend-line it just nose dived. There are two potential EW counts. The good...

Exsilium Updated 

I mentioned this morning a slight concern about the topping LOI pattern I saw. It broke down during this 4H bar. That said, I do not see it as an indication at this time of any significant downward movement. There is a new Bullish Ascending Triangle on the chart. It terminates in 20 hours. These things never go to full termination, so I expect some break one way...

Exsilium Updated 

The current Wave count is becoming increasingly difficult to plot, or is just simply beyond my experience with Elliot Wave. This drop over the last 20 hours would seem to make Wave 3.. not a Wave 3. I need to dig into the underlying structure more, and that is going to take some studying. EW is not simple, if it was you would be doing it too :) Anyway, not to...

Exsilium

We quickly recovered from that single bar dip yesterday and actually poked above Wave 1 high, though by a tiny fraction. Right now there are no technicals limiting us from more upward movement except for the Monthly Pivot. LOI also recovered and made a new high, though again I am seeing a flat top forming again like I did yesterday preceding that short dip. The...

Exsilium Updated 

Wave 1 ended up being just shy of my previous analysis, and Wave 2 retraced a near perfect 0.382 fib. I adjusted this series prediction based on Wave 1 and 2 end-points. This brings Wave 3 target down to the HA Monthly Pivot of 0.73 which is also the 1.272 fib of Wave 1. My gut feeling is that were going to see a pretty large jump at some point in the next...

Exsilium Updated 

It appears we aren't going to end up with a Bull Pennant formation during this correction, instead we're seeing the Flat ABC correction I called as an alternative formation. A move below 0.63 would invalidate the counts, potentially forming a Bearish Triangle, or extending into an XYZ. Remember that correction waves are also correction waves of a higher degree,...

Exsilium

I tweeted multiple times to look for an exit at 0.69, as well as putting it in my daily analysis and follow-ups to those analysis. Price is now at 0.64 and is a good place to re-enter as that is the 0.50 fib of the move from 0.55 to 0.70. I see two possibilities for this correction wave, an Bullish Pennant (plotted in purple) or a Flat ABC, both of which would...

Exsilium Updated 

This is a follow-up of my analysis this morning. As you can see from the chart, its pretty simple. 4H RSI trend-line broken up, 4H Fisher turned up, bearish trend-line broken up.

Exsilium Updated 

Thats always fun, having your predicted new Elliot Wave impulse series invalidated. It is what it is. Yesterday I had plotted a series based on Wave 1 and 2 being complete. Elliot Wave theory says that Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave, and with the sideways movement over the last 24 hours, I have to figure out a new count which will take some time as the...