Im getting a lot of push from other chart analyzers that were going lower, that my current analysis is silly.
Elliot Wave theory says that every impulse wave structure is followed by a corrective wave structure. While there are a very large number of potential correction wave formations, the simplest of those is the ABC correction wave. At this point in time we havent seen a completed ABC, let alone any of the more complex correction wave formations.
At the most we could be seeing an AB of an ABC wave in the Minor degree (green). A potential Flat ABC would mean at least another test of 0.496. Flat ABC are not the norm though and we should see a push above 0.496 to complete the standard ABC formation.
Assuming for the moment that the current minor wave is wave B, it could extend down to retest the bottom, below that would invalidate any correction wave count.
If this is the reversal point as I suspect (really hope BTC gets its act together), ABC would actually be 123 of a 5 count.
Heres the tricky part... all of that is when we consider the Minor wave structure. The recent bottom also completed the Intermediate wave structure, which means there should be an Intermediate correction wave, which would require significantly higher moves. The 0.382 for the Intermediate degree would be 0.54.
With the very potential double bottom coinciding with the Monthly S1 and the current wave structures, I simply do not see us making a new low until we at least hit 0.54.
A break above 0.60 would confirm the reversal IMHO, while a break of 0.50 would confirm the near term.
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As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
Elliot Wave theory says that every impulse wave structure is followed by a corrective wave structure. While there are a very large number of potential correction wave formations, the simplest of those is the ABC correction wave. At this point in time we havent seen a completed ABC, let alone any of the more complex correction wave formations.
At the most we could be seeing an AB of an ABC wave in the Minor degree (green). A potential Flat ABC would mean at least another test of 0.496. Flat ABC are not the norm though and we should see a push above 0.496 to complete the standard ABC formation.
Assuming for the moment that the current minor wave is wave B, it could extend down to retest the bottom, below that would invalidate any correction wave count.
If this is the reversal point as I suspect (really hope BTC gets its act together), ABC would actually be 123 of a 5 count.
Heres the tricky part... all of that is when we consider the Minor wave structure. The recent bottom also completed the Intermediate wave structure, which means there should be an Intermediate correction wave, which would require significantly higher moves. The 0.382 for the Intermediate degree would be 0.54.
With the very potential double bottom coinciding with the Monthly S1 and the current wave structures, I simply do not see us making a new low until we at least hit 0.54.
A break above 0.60 would confirm the reversal IMHO, while a break of 0.50 would confirm the near term.
===========
As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
