For the "chart of the day" the NZD has been my focus, and the 22nd we noted how the NZDUSD looked bearish. The NZDUSD sold off about 2.5% and today reached a very key level of support which bears should take note of. The highs in July 2019 and Sept 2020 were tested today and respected. This has created a possible false breakdown after fresh 2021 lows. Bears should...
The NZDJPY is drifting lower in the "flag" of the bull flag pattern as the pair pivoted (today) off the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the August lows to the October highs. Technicians will be looking at the 79.48 level as the pivot of being bulls vs bearish in the weeks ahead. The pair if facing the RBNZ decision overnight, and if the RBNZ meets expectations...
The NZDUSD Kiwi is facing some support as we are at the channel at .6950 following the re-nomination of the Fed Chair, Jay Powell. The risk is that the USD (which had a significant rally and hitting a new 2021 high today) could rally against the NZD strongly if this confluence is broken. The NZDUSD has been trading heavy in recent weeks but the .6936 78% Fibonacci...
I think what most traders missed this week about the EURGBP is that the pair actually challenged a slight descending channel support as we hit a new trend low. Daily RSI was divergent suggesting we would bounce and not that we are back above the .8400 level, the risk is for a bounce. From here, a move back above the .8465 level would suggest a move back above the...
Inverted H&S pattern points to a move towards the 17.6000 level in the weeks ahead.
Divergent RSI, bears must be careful intraday chasing lower. A bounce risk is increasing.
We have been looking for levels to be long the USDJPY and the moves towards the 113.00 level continue to find buyers. The whole move in September looks very impulsive, which also means that dips may be bought. Flag support comes in at the 112.80 level and spike highs from April 2019 come in at the 112.23 level, so dips between 112.25-112.80 should find a support...
The Sept/Oct range Golden Fibonacci extension was hit today at the 4720 level. We'd expect this up move to stall here.
Currently the AUDJPY is set up in a wedge. Some would call this a bullish wedge as the highs are constant near the 86.00 level and the lows are higher. However, since this is a major resistance from the spike highs back in May 2021, we are just going to consider this as major resistance, especially with the RBA rate decision overnight. A move above the 86.00 level...
$EURMXN is making higher lows in a descending wedge which is typically a reversal setup (higher in this case). There is a strong inverse relationship with risk assets (SPX in this case) so a move above 24.1700 would be a very bullish event.
CLOSE works with hand grenades, horseshoes and crypto Take profit and stop orders. Don't be greedy, expect buyers back at the 4K level now
If you are looking for a counter trend short, the NZDJPY dailies look a little stretched here and could see a pullback into the 80.25 level in the coming week(s)
The GBPUSD is within close proximity of the 200dma, and just below that was today's highs at the 50% retracement at the 1.3829 level. Overnight, the risk may be for a probe into the 200dma, but the bears may attempt to hold the 200dma to keep the Sterling holding lower highs, which is essence is keeping the bearish trend in tact near term. A move below the 1.3700...
The 1.16150 level should hold as resistance near term as this is previous support which is current resistance for the pair.
The 94.50 level (current) is the long term 38% Fibonacci level in the US Dollar index. Above or below this level will be the difference between continued USD weakness long term or a long term consolidation (near term short squeeze) That is why this level is so pivotal.
The USDJPY broke higher out of a long term consolidation. When a move like this happens people want to know: 1) Will it continue? 2) Should I be a buyer? Today, I don't think the answers are very straightforward. To address the first question I would say that we are above channel resistance. Theoretically this is a breakout, but also are hitting key résistance...
It’s only fitting ahead of the NFP tomorrow that the #DXY has a setup against key resistance. The US Dollar is trading just shy of the 52 week high put in last month and we have developed a bullish wedge. The reason why this high (94.50) is so important, this is the long term weekly Fibonacci retracement of the post Covid highs to lows in 2020. A move above the...
This double top in the Nikkei would suggest about a -15% drop from current levels if it plays out. Break of the neckline and being long JPY (short XXXJPY) would be a way to play this like short EURJPY or NZDJPY